Labor’s new policy won’t delay NBN again, says Quigley

134


news Enacting Labor’s new NBN policy wouldn’t cause further delays in the project, Mike Quigley said in a press conference with former MP Tony Windsor, because it will primarily focus on established technologies such as Fibre to the Premises, unlike the Coalition’s Multi-Technology Mix switch in 2013.

Labor’s original version of the NBN initially saw the network being constructed using the best possible Fibre to the Premises technology from April 2009, when the then-Rudd Government created the NBN company, shortly after appointing Alcatel veteran Quigley as its executive chairman.

However, the rollout of the network was delayed initially by a number of factors, such as the need to negotiate a detailed contract to access Telstra’s pipes and pipes and transfer Telstra customers across to the new infrastructure, as well as the discovery of asbestos in Telstra’s pipes and problems with contractors.

The rollout was further delayed by from late 2013 when the new Abbott and Turnbull Coalition Governments enforced a switch on the NBN company to incorporate legacy technologies such as Fibre to the Node and HFC cable into the rollout.

Speaking at a press conference with former independent MP Tony Windsor, who championed the FTTP NBN during his time in the House of Representatives and is now seeking to return to Parliament, Quigley said Labor’s new NBN policy would not cause further delays. You can download the full transcript of the press conference here in Word Doc format.

The policy announced several weeks ago will see Labor continue with the Coalition’s planned HFC cable rollout for up to a third of Australian premises, while dumping its Fibre to the Node plans and returning the NBN to FTTP for millions more premsies.

At the press conference, Quigley said he didn’t think another switch would push the NBN’s rollout back again.

“I think everybody has now learned if you make a big change you will disrupt things if you change,” he said, “which is why I think what the Labor party has said reading their policy is they’re going to wind down the FTTN and they’re going to wind up the fibre to the premise.”

“The advantage they’ve got by the way is that fibre to the premise is a technology that’s proven. When the Coalition’s MTM started they were starting on 2 different technologies again.”

“In other words they had to start it from scratch and they had to renegotiate a deal with Telstra. I think they anticipated that renegotiation would be very simple, it was anything but simple which is why it took so long.”

Quigley noted that the current arrangements with Telstra — negotiated under the Coalition — still contained a lot of the protections from the original deal negotiated under Labor.

“If you were to see that shift take place to do another two million premises you wouldn’t see the same sort of disruption you saw before,” he said.

Quigley also repeated the broad message he gave in a speech at the University of Melbourne last week, telling listeners to the press conference that the “whole world” was moving to the Fibre to the Premises model, and that the FTTN model preferred by the Coalition was a mistake.

“If you wind forward 5, 10 years you’ll find that the speeds that are talked about now 25 to 50 [megabytes per second] will not be enough,” he said.

From a financial point of view, Quigley added that the original FTTP model would have made more sense than the Coalition’s model.

“I can tell you is if people are concerned about prudency and efficiency and a good use of tax payers dollars,” the former NBN chief executive said, “that original plan would have been the right use”.

“The company that ended up with a fully fibreed network would have ended up creating and generating a lot of cash which it then could have returned to the government or it could have used it to continue to expand the fibre footprint to bring better and better services.”

“It is a big economic issue. My view is it literally is tens of billions of dollars that are going to have been wasted on the NBN because that fibre to the node network is going to have to be upgraded.”

134 COMMENTS

    • It’s hard to disagree with what he says without making stuff up, but I’m sure they’ll give it a red hot go :o)

    • If Labour is elected I’d anticipate there to be some (nowhere near MTM levels – but ‘some’) impact in changing direction. A definite risk from this would be further delays to the rollout.

      Changing direction would mean a difference in cost (i.e. most FTTN install costs will be cheaper than FTTP), an update to construction partners (instead of being tasked with building FTTN they will need to build FTTP), an update to the operate & maintain contracts (instead of handling work on a FTTN network, they will need to maintain FTTP) & a difference to overall company numbers (forecasts will be based on current splits).

      Changing all these things are manageable and achievable. They have an impact and likely some delays while they are sorted out. Nothing wrong with heading in this direction though (and I think the labour approach has a number of definite advantages).

  1. “…which is why I think what the Labour party has said reading their policy is…” should be Labor.

    “returned to the government or it could have used it to continue to expand the fibre footprint to bring better and better services.”

    This is a point that anyone that’s unhappy with FW or Satellite should take note of!

    • “Labour”

      The Indian transcribers don’t always get everything right — the transcription doc is riddled with errors like this.

      Fixed!

        • And “the speeds that are talked about now 25 to 50 [megabytes per second] will not be enough” …. I’d be happy with even 25, since am not getting better than about 12 [megabytes per second] with DOCSIS 3.0 Optus HFC Speed Pack (and Telstra HFC Extreme is similar).

  2. At the press conference, Quigley said he didn’t think another switch would push the NBN’s rollout back again.

    Bill Morrow agree’s with him:

    If that [Labor switch to FttP] eventuates, NBN is prepared. Speaking to Crikey during a visit to a number of NBN rollout sites in Queensland last week, Morrow said that the company was in a much better position now than it was three years ago to deal with potential changes.

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2016/03/23/nbn-wont-be-caught-with-pants-down-if-labor-switches-back-to-fibre/

  3. Quigley’s said a lot of things, sadly his performance was way off (updated):
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/2cpmjufh576l5ch/brownfields-actuals-v-forecast.pdf?dl=0

    Quigley’s forecast purple line looking very lonely immediately after publication (such was his failure). Under 30% of target by the time of the election. FY16 NBNCO to meet their first CP forecast in the company’s 7 year history.

    7 years to pass 1,586,242 service brownfield premises, of which 500k are FTTN/B. More premises passed in the last 5 weeks, more activations in last 3, than Quigley’s 4.5 yrs tenure. What a performer.

    FTTH teams to be disbanded in a couple of days (contracts dried-up). 2m more FTTH in only 6 mths should be a doodle. They should get Quigley back to oversea it;-)

    • How many poi have the current mob connected how about back haul. But then going by your past stats if labor gets in starting from July 3rd any increase in deployment was labor plan.

      • All the exchanges were already connected, majority competitively (part of the billions in infrastructure). NBNco overbuilt it ($2.2b)

        Labor can take all the credit if elected. The policy distaster is just beginning, regardless of election result. Don’t worry you won’t understand any of it.

        • Ahh so the MTM riding on the ramp up the FTTP would have.

          Don’t worry you won’t understand it much like the counter factual on p39 of the CP16

          • Neither can you. FTTN RFS flower than FTTP but apparent deploy faster. But then you also struggles to understand a corporate plan

          • And JK …

            For all of his narcissistic chest beating about his supreme intellect, he can’t even understand basic numbers…

            Ask him if he now understands the difference between 16 million and 60 million…?

            ;)

          • Ask your shadow Jason K how you define a ‘FTTP ramp up’ as removing 50% from your original rollout target estimates at the end of the Labor NBN Co reign in 2013?

          • Rizz also leaving out the $700 ducts and pit lease in his policy he could have writen but then adding it to FTTP

          • “how you define a ‘FTTP ramp up’ as removing 50% from your original rollout target estimates at the end of the Labor NBN Co reign in 2013?”

            Depends. How do you define a ‘FTTN ramp up’ as removing 75% from your original rollout target estimates before the end of the Liberal nbn reign in 2016?

          • I think Rizz has rattled him that much, he see’s him everywhere now.

            Or maybe he missed his meds again?

            /shrug

        • “All the exchanges were already connected, majority competitively (part of the billions in infrastructure). NBNco overbuilt it ($2.2b)”

          Exchanges are not POIs. The systems are entirely different and believing they could have provided the POIs and transit network for an NBN designed to last 50 years, not just tacked on to the current infrastructure, means one doesn’t understand the point of the NBN.

          • Where are the POIs?

            Heaps of competive dark fibre connecting exchanges pre-NBN. Capacity upgrades could have stayed ahead of demand (always have). Subsidy addressing non-commerical areas already in place.

            $20+b spent for 1.05mbps / customer provisioned CVC. NBNCo’s network of the future.

    • Because your rambling of incorrect chart numbers has what to do with this article?
      Pretty much an excuse to paste your (updated ((which nobody will click on)) graph? Cool, now off you go.

      • Nobody will click on it because you don’t seek out what you don’t want to see.

        Keep the head in the sand until Saturday, not long to go now.

        • Reality nobody can hear you. Your head has been in the sand for so long there’s sand falling out of your ears. Ignoring every article and graphs from professional IT & telecoms industry who cast doubt on the failed MTM project. But continue to post pre-election articles that suit your agenda, that’s fine because it just shows us how deep your head is in the sand. :)

          • Ignoring every article and graphs from professional IT & telecoms industry who cast doubt on the failed MTM project. But continue to post pre-election articles that suit your agenda, that’s fine because it just shows us how deep your head is in the sand. :

            Wait!….that’s not sand!!

            http://goo.gl/yo1PJA

            I miss the old Alain really, he used to actually have a chat about things rather than launch into a rant.

        • Sorry Richard but the current powers to be at the NBN have shown time and time again (misleading senate hearings, rejecting FOIs, commercial in confidence, breaking the care takers law, not enough characters in this box to keep going…) The rubbery figures NBN release cannot be trusted by the way they run the company, graphing rubber will always have a pre-determined outcome, so there’s no point in doing it until all information has been made transparent (which NBN is lacking).
          Labor’s NBN was far from perfect in meeting targets, while building a company from 0 to 5000 and placing the targets very high (considerably much higher then current NBN targets, which are laughable) at least they were heading in the right direction, unlike current NBN.

      • Because your rambling of incorrect chart numbers has what to do with this article?

        You know what they say, garbage in, garbage out…

    • How are Malcolm’s targets going Richard? It’s 2016, has everyone got NBN yet like he promised before the election?

        • Yawn indeed Richard…

          Now how about you answer FZ’s question, ready this time, read it carefully…

          How are Malcolm’s targets going Richard?

          FZ didn’t ask for your usual defence mechanism/cherry-picked BS, comparing apples and oranges (start up vs piggy backers).

          Got it this time?

          So GO

          But of course we all understand you and that EGO’s insistence in “not” answering – as you claimed “you could have been commissioned to write MTM” and even though you and the EGO will never admit it, you must cringe in private at the debacle we told you, you had written, would be… now that we (including you and that EGO) can all actually see it is.

          You’re welcome

          • Perhaps we can get Labor in on Saturday, they know how to manipulate targets, hack 50% off your FTTP estimate and call it a ramp up.
            They only have 2M extra FTTP connections to play with this time, come 2018 and missed targets again the Labor NBN Co will say we are still ‘ramping up’.

            ROFL

          • Lol troll the coalition are the masters on how the manipulate targets. Hack out 5.5 million 55% off there orignal target in just 3 months then hack off another 2 million off again for 75% off there orignal target.

          • @ alain,

            As Richard is unwilling (surprise surprise) to explain let alone bag his blown out shitty plan, perhaps you can…?

            I’ll ask FZ’s question (yes he’s me too *sigh*) again.

            How are Malcolm’s targets going?

            GO

            You’re welcome

    • Gee it’s a good thing your comment has nothing to do with this article, for a second there I thought we’d have to sit up and pay attention to your fantasy numbers that even you have demonstrably proven to not understand on multiple counts.

  4. “I you were to see that shift take place to do another two million premises you wouldn’t see the same sort of disruption you saw before,” he said.

    But it’s a shift from planned FTTN to FTTP, so other than the renegotiation of contracts with contractors to FTTP from FTTN and the delay to the rollout deployment FTTP vs FTTP, yeah there is no ‘disruption’.

    “I can tell you is if people are concerned about prudency and efficiency and a good use of tax payers dollars,” the former NBN chief executive said, “that original plan would have been the right use”

    You mean this one, or some other plan?

    Credibility blown: NBN Co wildly revises targets again

    https://delimiter.com.au/2013/09/25/credibility-blown-nbn-co-wildly-revises-targets/

    or maybe this one?

    It’s official: Labor’s NBN project has failed

    https://delimiter.com.au/2013/10/14/official-labors-nbn-project-failed/

    or this one?

    NBN backlog in greenfields to take eight months to clear

    http://www.computerworld.com.au/article/440072/nbn_backlog_greenfields_take_eight_months_clear_/

    • I’ve been longtime lurker… But I have to reply to this Lack-of-REALITY post.

      Renai was a bit of a noob back then,(no offence Renai, but you were) still blindly believing in Liberal bs.,(cost effective, fast install FTTN, affordably workable FOD, etc., LOL XD & also critising Labor NBN more than appropriate for Devils advocate/fake-balance against Zdnet writing rival David Brue,[hope I got his name correct; he was good & no fake balance])

      I can only think how much Renai must now cringe seeing Lib-stooges like yourself use his old ignorant rantings/writings,(sorry again Renai) as proof of your own ignorant/deceitful posts being accurate; When they are not.

      Maybe try grabbing some actual recent links next-time.

      Later, RIPP.

      • Hit & run eh RIPP, perhaps you can provide some actual recent links yourself that null out the points in the links I posted?

        Not likely eh?

      • BTW funny how a ‘long time lurker’ wink-wink has the same posting style as Rizz eh?

        lol

        • I’m not Rizz;

          The fact we both may have similar views & easily ridicule you for your lack of factual posting prowess, is not my fault; Sorry bub.

          I’m RIPP from Whirlpool btw.,(rarely post there anymore though). JOINED: Monday, 14 January 2002

          Later, RIPP.

          • lol yeah sure , you wanted to criticise Renai but you didn’t want to do it as Rizz eh ‘long time lurker’?

          • Actually Reality, it was pretty clear, I was not critising Renai, but you; For your weak posting efforts ;)

            Later, RIPP.

          • Don’t worry. Everybody here is Rizz.

            This just means you’ve flummoxed him. Admittedly it isn’t difficult. But grats, you’ve joined the ranks of people able to spell out enough truth to shut him up and resort to using primary school quality comebacks.

          • “you wanted to criticise Renai but you didn’t want to do it as Rizz eh ‘long time lurker’?”
            Oh, please. I’ve criticised Renai on multiple occasions. Hell, once even on this article, now (and linked to another article where I did also).

            Because he’s a rational human being, he is either capable of ignoring or responding appropriately to criticism. I know this comes as a shock to you, but not everybody is a monster. I’d be careful of your projections.

          • Thanks Rizzcakes for the grats;

            Oh shit; Games up, another cover blown …Dammit! …lol XD

          • I’m not Rizz;

            Don’t worry Ripp, he see’s Rizz everywhere! I’m fairly certain he checks for Rizz under his bed before he goes to sleep at night!

        • @ alain,

          It must be said, sorry Renai…

          You really have a cognitive problem alain, seriously.

          That wasn’t that nasty eh? After all, I was going to say fucking idiot, but that’s not nice, so I didn’t.

          You’re welcome

      • “I can only think how much Renai must now cringe seeing Lib-stooges like yourself use his old ignorant rantings/writings,(sorry again Renai) as proof of your own ignorant/deceitful posts being accurate”

        I stand by this article:

        https://delimiter.com.au/2013/10/14/official-labors-nbn-project-failed/

        I have recently obtained a qualification in Project Management (PRINCE2). By all the standards of project management (as mentioned in the article), the original NBN under Quigley did fail.

        It blew its budget and its timeframe and required significant reworking.

        Of course, we should have expected this in a project of this scale. In terms of these kinds of projects, the NBN under Quigley did relatively well, with hindsight.

        • I agree Renai. It did fail. It had number of issues, including but not limited to: the firm hold of Telstra, the bootstrap approach of the new NBN company, the lack of freedom for FTTB, the naivety of insisting broken targets were ‘out of their control’ and the severe miscalculation of political interference. To name but a few.

          It was an admirable dream but unfortunately not nutted out well enough before being used as a political prize by Labor to get it to a self-standing position. I truly wish it had been given the chance Quigley deserved to have. It really would have been a remarkable national project if even 2/3 of it was delivered in the timeframe and cost.

        • Hi Renai,

          But delays & cost overruns,(at that point in time) does not mean Labor NBN project failed, just that if nbn wasn’t broken apart by the Liberals when in office, that the real NBN would need to find ways to save money & other ways to speed up construction to get back on schedule; For its’ only point in time that really matters, being pretty accurate, is expected year of completion.

          Project Fox & now the presence of new tech, like skinny fibre etc., would’ve assisted in this.

          BTW. I think most of us knew the initial targets were just to motivate, I mean seriously; I respect a hard target to reach more than the new nbn low-balling.

          When low-balled, you can & will slacken off, because you know it’s in-the-bag; A monumentally tough target you keep working hard & striving for; Put simply, I think more work gets done when targets aren’t easily made.

          Ps. Thanks for being cool about my prior post & not getting grumpy :)

          Later, RIPP.

        • Hi Renai

          “Of course, we should have expected this in a GBE of any scale.”

          There I fixed it for you.

          Congratulations on your PRINCE2.

          • “Of course, we should have expected this in a GBE of any scale.”

            Really? Medibank? Aust. Post? Telecom? All were extremely profitable before privatisation. And continue to be in the case of Aust. Post

          • Aust Post made a loss of $221.7m FY15. Heading south.

            So much taxpayer guaranteed money, restricted competition and yet so little profitability.

            How’s about financial performance post privatisation? What about consumer prices and product differentiation after introduction of competition?

          • Richard, Aus post made a technical loss due to investments in New digital infrastructure and restructuring costs.

            They are on track to make a profit this year.

          • ““Of course, we should have expected this in a GBE of any scale.””
            Because private enterprise IT projects NEVER go horribly wrong.

            Nice rock you’re cowering under there.

            “What about consumer prices and product differentiation after introduction of competition?”
            Well in the case of Telstra it all went south, hence the need to build a new national network.

        • I agree with where you are coming from Renai, but I think technically it would be “Failing”, not “Failed”, the project would need to be completed, or cancelled, to have actually failed.

          But boy, did they miss a few milestones early on!

        • I would why?

          Kenneth Tsang has been doing data analysis on the NBN, both FTTP and FTTN, since before either yourself or Richard were on these forums. In fact, since before it became an election issue in 2013. I’ve read dozens of his articles and gone over alot of his analyses, which have been linked to by both blogs and major newspapers and his data has appeared to and mentioned in Senate hearings.

          Is the data perfect? No. Does it show a clear trend that Tsang writes about objectively? Yes. When you produce 3 different, public and highly popular websites about the NBN, public transport and the election that provide data sources from both public and private sources, updated daily and provide accurate and useful information to hundreds of thousands, then perhaps you could point me to where I might find such information and perhaps I’ll take a read of your analyses for comparison.

          • @st @R just provided a link to such information & analysis:-)

            Good on Tsang for his contributions. Few perform any analysis. Right or wrong it’s infinitely more valuable to the discussion.

            Same 8 mth backlog is tosh; as a full (objective) analysis of the source data shows some 135 SAMs delayed, 198 same or ahead.

            NBNCo will, for the first time in its history, meet their CP rollout targets. See Dropbox above, constructive comments re performance forecast v actuals under the different management welcome (as always).

          • “NBNCo will, for the first time in its history, meet their CP rollout targets.”
            They’ve finished rolling out to 100% of Australia, have they?

          • Richard is right, and wrong, as usual 7T.

            Ken’s analysis is correct (and as Richard helpfully pointed out, one area is even delayed by 11 months), but Richard is saying that doesn’t matter when others have been moved up, or stayed the same.

            So Richard is basically complaining that Ken didn’t paint a rosy picture of the MtM.

    • ROFL more links from 2013, alain…

      Fancy, nothing mentioned about the “ready to roll – $29.5B plan for all Aussies by 2016”?

      Oh of course, those figures were massively revised… so here let me save you doing it again.

      Credibility blown: NBN™ wildly revises targets

      So I see you are ignoring (as we all should) the last 3 years of tech idiocy and the FRAUDBAND debacle (the greatest construction fuck up in Australia’s history) from the current government…

      But then of course you would.

      You’re welcome

    • But it’s a shift from planned FTTN to FTTP, so other than the renegotiation of contracts with contractors to FTTP from FTTN and the delay to the rollout deployment FTTP vs FTTP, yeah there is no ‘disruption’.

      Even Bill Morrow says you’re wrong ;o)

      lolz

  5. “NBNCo will, for the first time in its history, meet their CP rollout targets.”

    Really? I seem to remember the 1st Corporate plan after the Coalition took over saying 500 000 FTTN connections RFS by June 2016. They’ve still got tomorrow I spose….

    The CPs produced by NBNCo. under the Coalition are just as unpragmatic as those when Labor ran the show. The only true purpose of any of those predictions was political.

    • @st Morrow’s 1st Corp Plan CP14-17 didn’t contain FTTN forecasts, only FTTH thru FY15.

      CP14-17 failed, as did Quigley’s CP11-13, CP12-15 and CP13-16 (withheld from the electorate).

      Morrow’s 2nd CP16p60 contains the 500k FTTN/B target. The first CP target likely to be meet (4K premises this week required, avg 30k).

      I’m sure you, like most of the delimiters, would like to congratulate the new management in finally overcoming what has been an previously insurmountable challenge (not even close). Kudos to Quigley’s team; in the private sector we’d be sacked for such underperformance (~30%) they paid themselves bonuses every year.

      • “Morrow’s 2nd CP16p60 contains the 500k FTTN/B target. The first CP target likely to be meet (4K premises this week required, avg 30k)”

        So….it hasn’t been met. It’s another prediction. Glad we straitened that out.

        “Kudos to Quigley’s team; in the private sector we’d be sacked, they paid themselves bonuses every year.”

        And if you printed that in a Newspaper it’d be labelled libel. Quigley forfeited his first 3 years of salary and all bonuses.

        • performance actuals & bonuses published ARs. Like their forcasts (CPs), the data is public (used in my analysis above). It’s not libel to call out underperformance (just another attempt to avoid scrutiny).

          I can’t think of a head of any private sector project that underperformed their own targets by a similar margin and retained their position. Perhaps you’d name some.

          Quigley donated his first years salary. True he opted out of bonus program (also true they were awarded every year).

          • “I can’t think of a head of any private sector project that underperformed their own targets by a similar margin and retained their position. Perhaps you’d name some.”

            I could go on about Lehmann Bros. golden handshakes and the GFC. But I won’t. Because again, you’re missing the point. A GBE does not work on a private company financial scale or timeframe. Does that mean anything goes? Of course not. But expecting a company that didn’t exist beyond name and logo this time 7 years ago to have no hiccups is ridiculous.

            “Quigley donated his first years salary”

            Quite correct. I was thinking of his bonus opt out. He did only donate the first year salary

          • +1 7T

            “But expecting a company that didn’t exist beyond name and logo this time 7 years ago to have no hiccups is ridiculous.”.

            And to take that to the next logical step…

            To directly compare outcomes of such a company to the subsequent company who took over that didn’t have to worry about all of the start up hurdles, is disingenuous.

            Especially remembering too, that the incoming company’s FTTN was promised to be substantially quicker to roll out to all Aussies (2016) and substantially cheaper (fully costed @ $29.5B)… which were the trade-offs for inferiority.

            Unfortunately it seems of greatly quicker, greatly faster and inferior, they only managed the obvious one.

          • Let’s not go down the bonuses path with Quigley vs Morrow and their ex-positions now shall we… Why’s Bill in a court case in America at the moment? Oh.

          • To directly compare outcomes of such a company to the subsequent company who took over that didn’t have to worry about all of the start up hurdles, is disingenuous.

            Remember who you’re talking about Rizz. “Mr Half”. He only tells half the story and half the truth.

          • Oh, wow, ain’t the internet a wonderful thing:

            Richard said: (they’re now sulking with the fanboys over at delimiter)

            It’s the place to be, right Richard? :o)

          • Calling out the I performance for years.

            Numbers above show they’ll meet forecasts: 4K required in a week, averaging 30k.

            Everything I posted back in 2013 was correct.

            TM full quote:
            “All issues obvious at the the beginning; pointed out to abuse in talkbacks (they’re now sulking with the fanboys over at delimiter).”

            Still pointing them out, years later the fanboys can’t acknowledge even the basics. Completed a Masters in less time.

          • Completed a Masters in less time.

            Let me guess…it wasn’t an english language masters ;o)

            Masters are easy, most can be completed in a year (while working a full time job).

      • Hi Richard,

        Ignoring the initial bits, I’ll let others get around to that, if they see your post & aren’t lol’ing too hard to type a reply to you.

        But that bit at the end, was a rather childishly douchey dig at Quigley & team;

        Your new Libshill management have been getting bonuses, did anyone donate any 1st year salary to charity?

        Did Libshills also get to keep their Telstra shares when negotiating with Telstra for copper access also? – UHUH.

        Later, RIPP.

      • Lol morrow first cp14-17 had most of the HFC connected by this year as it was a rehash of the SR

      • “in the private sector we’d be sacked for such underperformance”

        What do you reckon the private sector would think about only being able to tell within a range of $10billion its upcoming expenses. (30% of the allocated budget … ~20% of the projected total cost makes for a pretty darn big ‘?’!).

        This whilst revenue forecasts are plummeting through the floor! (At least under Quigley the revenue was above predictions).

        How do you reckon they would treat that kind of risk? (might possibly have something to do with why no-one is indicating they will lend this MTM GBE any funds to ‘finish’).

      • in the private sector we’d be sacked for such underperformance

        And yet your company keep you on while your wasting hours posting on Delimiter (and no doubt other sites).

  6. Richard:

    “Aust Post made a loss of $221.7m FY15. Heading south.”

    That is the first loss they’ve made in 2 decades, in a highly disrupted market. You missed my point completely. They could lose money for another 10 (which you would assume someone won’t allow and change) provide an essential service and still be profitable overall. That’s the point of a GBE.

    • @st sorry you claimed extremely profitable. All were / are comparative disasters. Remove Aust Post monopoly on letters and watch the market thrive (like both your privatised examples), tender mail delivery to areas requiring subsidy. Won’t happen, Aust Post monopoly response is to hike prices.

      NBNCo has “invested” $20+b in 7 years to pass 20% of Australian premises, FY16 expecting $~300m revenue and $2b loss!

      Since announced private sector investment into profitable fixed-line areas halted. For an inefficient dog that couldn’t pull cable, now can’t even locate a cabinet on a high piece of land (with $190k / node)

      Comparisons with any other countries private sector tendered upgrade welcome; Eg BT 25m premises in the same timeframe; profitable every year, couple of £b taxpayer contribution. Eircom, Swisscom, Chorus NZ, etc.

      • “@st sorry you claimed extremely profitable. All were / are comparative disasters.”

        I fail to see how 20 years of profits and a 99.875% average (I believe) delivery rate is a disaster. Letters are now the least important sector for Aust Post. They are already making large profits in their package division which is far from a monopoly.

        “NBNCo has “invested” $20+b in 7 years to pass 20% of Australian premises, FY16 expecting $~300m revenue and $2b loss!”

        NBNCo. is a GBE. If a GBE is profitable over its lifetime and provides the services required, well, It is a success. If you assume 30 years (same as PNG/Telecom) for NBNCo. to make the $55B (+interest charged) borrowed, that’s approx. $2.5B a year. Projections for NBNCo., even with FTTN, far exceed that.

        “Comparisons with any other countries private sector tendered upgrade welcome”

        All are now upgrading to FTTP. If the NBN was begun in 2005, like it should’ve been under Howard, we’d be in the same boat. Labor knew we needed to jump the queue. It was brought to a halt by the current government, but will still be largely successful, if much less forward thinking by global standards

        • Just more clueless LibTroll ranting from Richard, Aus post are far from the ancient slow moving dinosaur they used to be, I should know, I recently accepted a contract with them.

      • “Remove Aust Post monopoly on letters and watch the market thrive (like both your privatised examples)”
        Oh yeah great, just what we need – 10 years of collapse and need to start up a new GBE in order to do something as simple as deliver a letter again. You know, like how areas can no longer make landline telephone calls when it rains a little bit.

        “Comparisons with any other countries private sector tendered upgrade welcome;”
        You’re right. Every example you posted is countered with Telstra refusing to submit a proposal worth more than 3 pages.

      • Remove Aust Post monopoly on letters and watch the market thrive

        I think you’ll find AP would like that as well.

        The $222 million net loss includes provisions of $190 million to pay for the retraining and redeployment of employees working in the postal group’s letters operations as it restructures its letters services, and for possible redundancies.

        Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/australia-post-posts-222m-loss-letter-posting-in-terminal-decline-20150925-gjup78.html#ixzz4D2RCDqeG

  7. Richard:

    “Where are the POIs?”

    Being in exchanges does not make them the same. The physical connections and redundancy of the systems us what makes up the POI and transit network. Not it’s housing. Again, you missed my point.

    “$20+b spent for 1.05mbps / customer provisioned CVC.”

    That’s AVC for FTTN, not even GPON FTTP. CVC is highly expandable, at any time, at all POIs.

    • @st so POIs, being in exchanges already connected by fibre (majority with multiple competing suppliers) required a new transit fibre network to be built. You don’t think the network has alternate paths?

      1.05mbps average figure is across all techs, nothing to do with AVC. It’s all RSPs have provisioned and why all techs are experiencing congestion. Most Australians could’ve received a better connection on ADSL2+ and saved $10s billions.

      Not even a business product available in their 8th year. The policy, manifestated in NBNCo has provided unparalleled poor value for the money committed. Politicians responsible for poor policy, management for poor execution.

      • Re: POIs- If you believe that the building of POIs and transit network was a waste of money, unfortunately I’m not going to argue. Network topology for infrastructure the size of NBNCo. demands it.

        “1.05mbps average figure is across all techs, nothing to do with AVC. It’s all RSPs have provisioned and why all techs are experiencing congestion.”

        I’ve no idea where this figure comes from and why this is NBNCo’s issue. I have 25Mbps FTTP from NBNCo. I’ve never gotten less than 23.

        “Not even a business product available in their 8th year.”

        NBNCo are a wholesaler. They don’t provide business products. They provide network solutions. Traffic Class 1-4 are available for guaranteed throughput, as well as symmetrical links. All business grade network solutions.

        • Demanded the capacity sure, not overbuilding their own. 121 POIs ridiculous (too few), ACCC’s review of transit plans was very enlightening.

          1.05mbs from ACCC insightful NBN Wholesale Indicators report; total RSP provisioned CVC divided by total active connections @31MAR16.

          RSPs require a wholesale business class service before they can offer their a retail packaged version. NBNCo is still working on theirs.

          • The ACCC is the reason there are 121 POIs. NBNCo. wanted 14. And any serious competition for RSPs was removed by that decision. Believing more than 121 POIs was required puts you in the vast minority. Even most FTTP Labor plan critics thought 121 was too many.

            Total CVC provisioned/active connections is a lovely if pointless number. Telstra averages just 0.75Mbps equivalent on their DSL network. It tells us nothing.

            “RSPs require a wholesale business class service before they can offer their a retail packaged version.”

            I just laid out their business class services. TC1-4 and symmetrical connections. Want some more? POI Local Multicast services for video, Ethernet-over-fibre links, redundant traffic flow for intra-city connections. All these were planned and most are already available.

      • Most Australians could’ve received a better connection on ADSL2+ and saved $10s billions.

        For how long do you expect ADSL2+ to be a workable solution Richard? When would you let them upgrade, to what, and by whom?

        • I’m 800m from the exchange and my ADSL2 was 6 Mbps. When I had 1 device using that, I didnt have much of a problem. When I have 10 devices, its a different story.

          Thankfully, thanks to Julia Gillard, our exchange was fast tracked and I got FttP. Thanks to Tony Abbott though, we have the bizarre scenario where 90% of an exchange is FttP, and the remaining 10% will be FttN.

          Where is that ever a good idea?

          • Where is that ever a good idea?

            I know this one! Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull’s electorates!

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