Truth: The MTM NBN could have been so much better


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  1. Stupid ideas rarely turn out well, MtM is doing a great job of proving this generalisation.

  2. “With the MTM, the Member for Wentworth had a chance to make things better.”

    I’m not sure what else he could have done given the environment in which he operates. Just look at how similar his government is to that of Tony Abbott. These guys are not in control of anything. They are merely in office.

    • Abbott would never have allowed FTTdp into the discussion. The flaws in the MTM lie squarely on Abbotts shoulders for his overriding demand to reduce the NBN to the farce its become.

      I’m not sure what Turnbull could have done since September to undo that, given the timeframe to a likely election.

      In some ways, Turnbull has done well to minimise the FttN damage so much, so there are only 100k or so connected. Anyone that doesnt have a node installed yet can be rectified and put on one of the other options.

      The plans are already there with the Labor FttP rollout, so its only a matter of deciding where to stop the fibre.

      To put it another way, use the Liberals screwups and ineptitude to get the most beneficial outcome possible out of it.

      It COULD have been so much better, it doesnt need to keep being so bad. It just needs someone to be bold around election time so there is some sort of bipartisan approach we can all be happy with.

    • Yup 5 votes swinging right would be all it would have taken to not unseat Abbot so Turnbull’s far from sitting pretty and secure.

  3. IN the spirit of Devil’s Advocate:

    – the MTM and $29.5B investment is a lot better than “kill the NBN”
    – the MTM/NBN is a national project, meaning every household is in the footprint, not cherrypicked willing to pay, cheap to service telco-led rollout
    – fixed wireless and satellite are in progress and consistent between Labor and Coalition; great for the bush, rural communities
    – in the FTTN/FTTP debate we are looking at 3.7M households rolled out with FTTN, costing $6.3B capex, so even if that investment is a dud, we are only wasting $6B which looks like could be only 10% of the NBN cost… No-one likes waste, but I can see the Coalition’s point about moving fast. Maybe failing fast and then getting on with the next thing… i.e. upgrade upgrade upgrade… learn learn learn…
    – FTTdp will likely make a difference…. sometime… somehow…
    – an election this year will test the value of the two NBN approaches, and get some updated policies before the electors, who will get a chance to vote with their feet…
    – with FTTP, while we are slow, and our speeds are dropping internationally (#30 -> #60), according to the OECD (2015) Digital Economy Outlook, only 14 countries had more than 10% FTTP users (18 countries > 5% FTTP). Of those 11/14 (14/18) were in Europe, plus Korea, Japan and Turkey. Even MTM plans to get us to 20% of homes with FTTP, so into those Top 20 countries. NZ was only at 3% FTTP back then.

    So… while there is short term pain, frustration, jargon fatigue, maybe even contempt, we are progressing, and we should play the long game…


    • rf, the problem is that the LibTards at nbn are treating the NBN rollout like a commercial one instead of a “public good” and as a result premises that woud have got FTTP are getting Fixed Wireless or worse Satelite, Nodes are being under provisioned with 1/1GBE instead of 10/10GBE and so on.

      TL:DR nbn is taking shortcuts that would not be taken if they were building the NBN with a national infrastructure mindset.

      • TL:DR nbn is taking shortcuts that would not be taken if they were building the NBN with a national infrastructure mindset.

        This. That was always the biggest difference between the ALP version of an NBN vision and the LPA one.

    • Just to add that what isn’t factored in any cost analysis that I’m aware of is the impact on the wider economy of getting FTTN sooner than FTTP. So that $6b may not be lost in the short life of FTTN if the wider benefits outweigh what may appear as waste if viewed in isolation.

    • @rf
      “– fixed wireless and satellite are in progress and consistent between Labor and Coalition; great for the bush, rural communities”

      I’m sorry but satellite is now over double its subscription numbers (aside from the truly rural areas most of its beams are in some form of congestion it seems).

      It was designed with 200k premises in mind LNP win in 2013 and it now is assumed it will deal with 400k and that looks to be growing as they’re in dire straights with nodes not reach the nth % of folk on outskirts of metro suburbs so are relying on Satellite to cover their ass (or have someone pay for $150k FoD install ala the Adelaidian who’s story delimiter covered). West Tassie is another prime example.

      “we are only wasting $6B” well if that’s the case we may as well go with FttP to 93% as that is around the difference between the two (according to LNP last figures).

      This stuff isn’t monopoly money. Do you know what $6B hole would do to a Federal budget! If NBN™ screw up badly the tax payers going to be left holding the ball.

      “Even MTM plans to get us to 20% of homes with FTTP,”

      When LNP spruik the million connections etc they’re basically relying on the fact that 900k of those are the 22% FttP folk, those are basically already all completed (due to Labor and NBN Co contracts).

      “we are progressing,”

      Aside from FttB (seriously wish Labor would’ve done that for MDU’s as well) MTM isn’t though.
      Almost 3 years and barely 40k connections :/

      • seriously wish Labor would’ve done that for MDU’s as well

        I argued at the time they were be dumb arses about that, hopefully that’ll be another part of the MtM they stick with.

        • Simplest thing, and its one I think both parties will end up with, is to replace the FttN part of the plan with FttDP. The rest has initial relevance, and can be dealt with later.

          For those already on FttN or HFC, sorry for now. Theres no reason they cant be upgraded to FttDP in 5 years.

          • I’m on HFC, and I don’t feel anyone has to be sorry for me :o)

            If DOCSIS 3.1 works as advertised, I think we (HFC users) will be ok for the next 10 years or so…

    • “Independent EU data shows the UK to be significantly ahead of most European countries when it comes to superfast broadband availability and take up…”

      Lucky UK… thanks to the bungling, inept government and NBN we have here via their idiotic MTM, while were climbing the ladder pre-MTM, we sadly keep landing on the snake and slipping further and further behind now…

    • Then it’s the private sector, GBE delivering entirely as predicted.

      Yeah, as a private company BT/Openreach didn’t have to worry about their conservative government stalling the roll out for 2.5 years…

      Weep taxpayers.


    • Openreach has also outlined ambitious plans to deliver ultrafast speeds to 10 million premises by 2020, and to the majority of the UK within a decade[4]. It will do this using a mix of technology and Fibre-to-the-Premises (FTTP) technology. only being workable with FTTdp, so that’s how it will be done.

      The page reads like a perfect and very realistic implementation of a broadband network. They could have made Telstra do all this. Copy it verbatim, only in 2016 start with FTTdp. Australia looks like the basket cases took over the asylum.

  4. FTTdP with it’s copper element will need to be powered, How?

    I keep on harping about weather extremes with Climate Change for good reason apart from extreme heat and intense rain events. In fact I was concerned at the time with NBNCo choosing their operational centre to be in Docklands.

    Our infrastructure must be able to cope with these extremes
    RIMS 2016: Sea Level Rise Will Be Worse and Come Sooner
    Davidson said recent data that has been collected but has yet to be made official indicates sea levels could rise by roughly 3 meters by 2050-2060, far higher and quicker than current projections.
    This validates the Hansen Paper, so expect extreme storms like we have not experienced and weather extremes to become more common
    The Greenland Summer Melt Season Just Started in April
    12 Percent. That’s how much of Greenland’s surface experienced melt yesterday according to a report from DMI’s Polar Portal as an unprecedented flow of warm, wet air slammed into its great ice sheets. 10 Percent. That’s how much of Greenland’s ice sheet surface is required to melt in order to mark an official start to the Summer melt season. Late May or early June. That’s when Greenland melt season typically begins.

    This September the Crystal Voyager, a standard unhardened cruise ship with 1,700 passengers and crew will traverse the Arctic via the Northwest Passage making history in the process.

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