NBN Co’s MTM choices “prudent and efficient”, finds Analysys Mason

110

news Analyst firm Analysys Mason has found in a detailed report commissioned by the NBN company that the NBN company’s initial design for its Fibre to the Node, Basement and HFC cable networks is “prudent and efficient”.

The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission this afternoon published a range of documents which the NBN company had sent it as part of the latest revision of the Special Access Undertaking document which guides the NBN company’s relationship with its customers and partners, as well as the regulator itself.

The documents are available for download through the ACCC’s website.

One of the documents consists of a report which the NBN company commissioned analyst firm Analysys Mason to carry out.

The NBN company asked the analyst firm to undertake an independent review of the prudency and efficiency of the NBN company’s initial design of its Fibre to the Node, Fibre to the Basement and HFC cable networks, as part of the new Multi-Technology Mix model which the Turnbull and Abbott Governments have imposed on the NBN.

Analysys Mason was also asked to consider whether the NBN company’s methodology and processes for determining which type of network it will deploy in a particular geographical area were also prudent and efficient.

In response, Analysys Mason found the NBN company’s methodologies in both cases were prudent and efficient.

In terms of the NBN company’s technology selection processes for any given area, Analysys Mason noted that the NBN company employed what it described as a linear programme model known as “the MTM Optimiser” in each area.

“We are satisfied with the methodology used for the strategic modelling process to determine the optimum network type to be deployed in a given area,” the firm noted.

The NBN company also employs a “strategic overlay process” in each area to further tweak its approach, which Analysys Mason said was similarly satisfactory.

In terms of the NBN company’s FTTN/B networks, Analysys Mason again gave the company a tick of approval.

“Implementing the network based on VDSL2 (using spectrum profile 17a) is both prudent and efficient as this is a mature technology that has been deployed by many incumbent operators around the world to provide broadband services and has also been selected for commercial use in Australia, as reflected in the recent work by the VDSL2 and Vectoring Working Committee (WC586) of the Communication Alliance,” wrote the firm.

“The end-to-end architecture is both prudent and efficient as it relies on a standard design similar to other FTTN/FTTB networks around the world, and maximises the re-use of Telstra’s CAN as much as possible, thereby minimising capital investment.”

Analysys Mason gave a similar nod of approval to the NBN company’s approach to its HFC cable network, although it noted a few caveats.

“HFC networks using DOCSIS 3.0 technology are being used widely throughout the world to provide downlink services equal to or in excess of the speed that nbn will offer to meet the SoE requirements and as part of its standard wholesale product set. Overall, DOCSIS 3.0 based HFC networks provide a prudent and efficient way to roll out services that meet the requirements of nbn supported services,” wrote the analyst firm.

“The acquisition and use of the assets from the Telstra and Optus HFC networks where it is efficient for nbn to do so, is the quickest and most cost-effective route to providing services in areas where HFC networks have already been deployed. This allows nbn to offer services as soon as possible. It is therefore a prudent and efficient path to take.”

One issue noted by Analysys Mason was in respect to the upload speeds possible over the NBN company’s HFC cable infrastructure.

“nbn has a number of upgrade options for ensuring that the HFC network can continue to meet service requirements as demand for bandwidth increases in the future. In particular, it needs to ensure that demand for upstream bandwidth can be met. This risk will be addressed by the adoption of DOCSIS 3.1 standards, which provide the ability to offer downlink services in excess of 1Gbit/s,” the firm wrote.

“ nbn does not have detailed plans for the upgrade of its HFC network in the longer term as it is concentrating on its shorter-term challenges such as network integration and reducing HFC node sizes. However, recently, nbn have decided that it will upgrade to DOCSIS 3.1 in the second half of 2017 to keep up with rising demand.”

The NBN company has come under fire on a number of occasions with respect to its implementation of the MTM model.

For example, in a region of Western Tasmania, a number of local towns have complained about being allocated satellite NBN broadband, instead of receiving upgrades to existing ADSL networks in the region.

In addition, a number of residents in areas such as Canberra have complained that the NBN company is choosing to overbuild existing FTTN infrastructure, rather than targeting areas which have no high-speed broadband infrastructure at all.

In addition, a number of isolated cases have arisen over the past several years where the NBN company appears to have made unusual technology choices.

For example, Delimiter is aware of a number of cases where the NBN company is choosing to deploy satellite infrastructure rather than upgrade ADSL connections where a resident is relatively close to existing fibre infrastructure.

opinion/analysis
I have merely skimmed the surface of this Analysys Mason report in this article.

The report contains an incredible amount of new detail about the NBN company’s MTM network rollout plans. I believe it will take some weeks before we fully understand all the new information which has been delivered here. Certainly I have not yet read the full Analysys Mason report myself.

Given that caveat, my initial comment is that I believe Analysys Mason has probably put too positive a spin on things here.

I have already documented a number of examples on Delimiter where the NBN company’s approach to the MTM displays questionable judgement. For Analysys Mason to claim in its aggregated findings that everything is well with the NBN company’s MTM choices does not reflect the reality on the ground.

110 COMMENTS

  1. The Liberals cooking the books. Where businesses on the end of that faulty copper suffer downtime and see it differently. All these fascists selling the economy out to defend Murdoch and hand all our money to Telstra for nothing.

    As if buying back the faulty junk the Liberals sold off in the first place wasn’t enough.

  2. “What Scales seems to have missed here is that the Analysys Mason report was based on the British broadband landscape, and assumed that the copper network required for a FTTN rollout was already owned by the operator rolling out the network. When parts of the copper network and/or the associated ducts might need to be purchased or leased, as required for Australia’s NBN, the calculus changes completely.”

    Oops.

        • Yes sorry the link didn’t seem to get pasted in my comment.
          Anyway I guess I’m trying to say is Analysys Mason reports have been seriously wrong in the past and should be taken with a grain of salt

          • But if they criticised the MtM in any way or praised FTTP they would be seriously correct.

            Commentary about the NBN by MtM haters is simplistically black and white.

            Anyone who supports it even with supporting facts is always wrong, anyone who crticises it is always right.

          • Nope the same analysis for FTTP in 2012 was scrutinized just as much if not more by the opposition, so now this one must also be put under the magnifying glass.
            The street is a two way street Reality, please stop reversing in the wrong direction.

          • “Commentary about the NBN by MtM haters is simplistically black and white”

            Not at all…and you have to wonder what there is to “hate” about a technology. The answer is nobody really “hates” it, it’s just that the technologically educated realize how much it hurts the country, and we don’t understand the political support for it.
            Support for MTM truly is baffling…it makes no technological, economic, or even esthetic sense, just a political statement for the sake of having a different idea.

          • Support for MTM truly is baffling…it makes no technological, economic, or even esthetic sense, just a political statement for the sake of having a different idea.

            Indeed. Political solution to a technical problem. We know current and future speed requirements yet instead of doing the right thing, having the foresight to consider the future they decided to make a mess of it and screw every Australian in the process. Everyone should be angry about it, not just us, that they (the copper fanboy knuckle draggers) meekly accept it without question speaks volumes.

          • @Reality

            Commentary about the NBN by MtM haters is simplistically black and white.

            I don’t hate the MtM, just FttN. FttN sucks rhino butt :o)

          • Commentary about the NBN by MtM haters is simplistically black and white.

            Anyone who supports it even with supporting facts is always wrong, anyone who crticises [sic] it is always right.

            I think your (factually) wrong there, you criticise anyone that doesn’t support FttN….thats a long way from being an MtM supporter/critic…

            Oh, and http://www.opencolleges.edu.au/informed/adult-literacy/

          • Not at all…and you have to wonder what there is to “hate” about a technology.

            I hate it (FttN). It’s not an elegant technical solution (like pure fibre, or even mostly fibre like Fttdp), it’s an ugly political solution.

            It’s the red headed step child of broadband (apologies to any red headed step children that may read this forum, you’re probably much nicer than FttN).

  3. Yet another report with a paid for in advance conclusion and yet more fodder for a royal commission!

  4. Analysys Mason is owned by Datatec. Datatec might be trying to get a good deal for its other subsidiaries within Australia for Cisco equipment installs maybe?

    • Its a interesting theory. Lets face it when your building something this big, many corporations are going to try to get their slice of the cake.. It always shows that with the Liberals its all about Big business greasing up the pollys. Renai and many others have pointed out that the Reality from this report is far removed from the actual truth.

  5. Efficient is not the term that I would use for the FTTN. I’ve seen a lot of horror stories for the Caboolture build. I believe, if I remember correctly, that some people can’t get ADSL speeds, and at least one person is restricted in the speeds that they can achieve, as the line can’t handle anything faster, and NBNCo don’t appear to want to fix the issue, as it is “working”…

    I could be wrong on a few of those issues, but not all of them…

  6. quickest and most cost-effective

    Pure coalition clown propaganda line.

    prudent and efficient

    Just LOL (Exactly how many times was this repeated?)

    • I think they meant ‘Pooped-Out and Effluent’

      Damn that LNP auto-correct dictionary.

    • In 2011, Malcolm read an Analysys Mason report into hansard that (in part) said:

      The disproportionate spend on FTTH … is highly problematic, and may come to be seen as inappropriate use of capital in the emerging competitive environment.

      and

      LTE mobile broadband could function as an effective substitute to ADSL2+, and fixed operators need to differentiate. However, LTE will take less time to roll out than FTTH and therefore fixed operators need to act fast.

      So I’d say they aren’t exactly fans of FttP…

      source: http://www.openaustralia.org.au/debate/?id=2011-09-22.181.1

      • Wow, anyone that argues mobile broadband can pickup aggregated baseload services (fixed line services used by *everyone*) has already shot their credibility to hell. What a completely idiotic and factually baseless proposition.

  7. Is that “prudent and efficient” in the context of the riding instructions given to NBNCo by the former Minster for Communications?

    They could have been asked if NBNCo is acting in the nation’s long term interest and meeting the expectations of the electorate based on the promises made by said former Minister.

  8. Yes very prudent if you are working towards the mandate of ‘cheapest and nastiest’ solution possible.

    Never mind ‘fit for use’ or ‘future proof’.

    Basically this equates to ‘anything but fibre’.

    This MTM rollout is not what Australians want!

    ““The end-to-end architecture is both prudent and efficient as it relies on a standard design similar to other FTTN/FTTB networks around the world, and maximises the re-use of Telstra’s CAN as much as possible, thereby minimising capital investment.””

    What about the ongoing maintenance costs.. dickheads!

    • The ongoing cost doesn’t worry them because they’ll be long gone when it really hits the fan, sitting pretty with their pensions, entitlements and some cushy corporate gig.

  9. Like the Strategic Review and all the other reports commissioned by Turdball and the Lieberals they just employ their mates to write whatever outcome they want. This mob are probably Lieberal donors or something. When looking at some of the stuff on their website it is clear the report was written to a Lieberal script.

  10. obviously nbnco really have no intention of abiding by the caretaker conventions. how many more reports and other crap have they setup to go live throughout the election cycle?

  11. Taking into account inflation and CPI, how much is an upgrade to FTTP going to cost in the future?

    • At a minimum a good chunk of the same build cost that the NBN Co were running with (satellites are done fixed wireless is done, back haul to FSAM’s all in place and the B2B and business is all sorted)

      You can’t ‘upgrade’ FttN to FttP per se so its basically a start from semi scratch.

      Basically go back the POI/FSAM’s and start over rolling out fibre again.

      I mean if it literally just was run a couple 100m to replace the last mile of copper it would still be expensive, just not quite so much.

    • The CP16 says $84b, based on the premise that the MTM will cost $56b – Hockey says $71.6b, so a proper FTTP network could now cost Aus up to $99.6b in total. The Liberals have literally made the ‘end goal’ (their words) twice as expensive. Innovative!

      • I can see this whole smozzle blowing out to $150 billion as time passes of it not arrested IMMEDIATELY!!

        • Who knows where it’ll end up at, it’s already “up to” $56b and they aren’t even half way thanks to the Coalition’s delays!

  12. “prudent and efficient”
    When looking at the next four or five years and no further.

    Add another 4 years and it looks very different. Add 10 years and MTMco should be put down.

    • I don’t know you don’t go getting a Treasury task force together to save future budgets if ‘prudent and efficient’ is an actual thing.

  13. So explain to me how FTTN is “Prudent and efficient” based on the fact that it is a mature technology yet HFC is “Prudent and efficient” despite the fact that DOCSIS 3.1 which has not been deployed in the wild will be needed to address the issues with upload speed?

    • MeRodent,

      So explain to me how FTTN is “Prudent and efficient” based on the fact that it is a mature technology

      You answered your own question, because it is a mature technology that uses existing in ground infrastructure.

      yet HFC is “Prudent and efficient” despite the fact that DOCSIS 3.1 which has not been deployed in the wild

      Yes it has, Comcast the largest internet provider in the USA is deploying DOCSIS 3.1 now to it’s extensive HFC network.

      http://www.nbnco.com.au/blog/industry/docsis-3-1-gathering-pace-kiwis-jump-on-board-too.html

      will be needed to address the issues with upload speed?

      What issues?

      • Comcast deployed their first modem in January…it won’t be a commercially viable product till the end of the year. Meanwhile, they are ramping up FTTP for all their new rollouts…

        • Chas,

          Comcast deployed their first modem in January…it won’t be a commercially viable product till the end of the year.

          Really?

          Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) is beginning its gigabit Internet launch in Atlanta, with an “advanced consumer trial” for early adopters in some neighborhoods.

          The company is using DOCSIS 3.1 cable technology to deliver gigabit speeds widely, with Atlanta serving as a vanguard for a rollout to other markets later in the year.

          http://seekingalpha.com/news/3167512-comcast-starts-gigabit-internet-rollout-atlanta

          Meanwhile, they are ramping up FTTP for all their new rollouts…

          Yes so they are, the NBN Co uses FTTP for their new rollouts as well, your point is?

          • Yes so they are, the NBN Co uses FTTP for their new rollouts as well, your point is?

            Where?

      • AT&T is the largest Internet provider in the United States.
        Comcast is the largest *CABLE* provider in the USA.
        Both telcos are rolling out gigabit FTTP because Fiber is eating cables lunch!!

        In 2012, the major US telcos petitioned the FCC to bring in legislation and regulations to enable the removal legacy networks and the retirement of copper networks. IP Transition laws and regulations were finalised last year. But I bet you never heard of it.

        http://www.forbes.com/sites/larrydownes/2013/03/18/telegram-for-the-fcc-set-a-date-now-to-retire-the-telephone-network/#2f59666d7271

        FTTP is mature technology. The first deployment in the United States was in Florida in 1986.

        Verizon demonstrated gigabit on FiOS GPON platform August 2010 there were some tests even before that. Verizon as recently tested 10Gbps and now getting ready to deploy.

        In 2010, EPB Chattanooga, a public energy utility, deployed FTTP/GPON gigabit broadband to support energy smartgrid requirements partly funded by the Federal Government. They just recently upgraded to 10 gigabit NG-PON

        In April 2015, Comcast launched the Gigabit Pro service, a symmetrical 2Gbps fiber to the home service and will be available to 18 million homes by the end of the year.
        http://corporate.comcast.com/comcast-voices/imagine-where-2-gigabit-speeds-will-take-you

        In December 2015 AT&T announced gigabit speeds to be delivered over 100% fiber to an additional 38 metros bringing the total to 56.
        http://about.att.com/story/plans_to_reach_38_more_metros_blazing_internet_speeds.html

        Have you heard of the USD$350 billion United States National Broadband Plan released by the FCC in 2010?

        Have you heard of Google Fiber?

        Smoke it Backwater Boy!!

        • AT&T is the largest Internet provider in the United States.
          Comcast is the largest *CABLE* provider in the USA.

          Really?

          Comcast now has more than half of all US broadband customers

          http://arstechnica.com/business/2015/01/comcast-now-has-more-than-half-of-all-us-broadband-customers/

          You rollout FTTP to new areas if you don’t own existing infrastructure like HFC.

          Also FTTP rollouts in the USA by private companies cherry pick their rollouts for certain areas based mainly what their competitors are doing or only in specially selected lucrative areas of USA cities.

          • Telcos in the U.S. are regulated by the FCC.

            Perhaps you don’t have the intelligence to understand they have competition laws and the telcos have TERRITORIES. There are also State laws

            I know more about the U.S. broadband scene than you will ever know because I live there.

            Smoke it Backwater Boy

          • You rollout FTTP to new areas if you don’t own existing infrastructure like HFC.

            Like NBNCo did? Oh, wait…does “now”…

            I’m confused, which is more cost effective? Owning the copper/HFC and upgrading it, or buying it and then upgrading it??? Does what you said mean we should have done FttP? Help me ObiWan Reality!!

          • Considering that the FCC and it’s U.S. telco underlings are removing all signs of the aging telephone copper networks, which include all DSLAMs and COs (exchanges) as per the IP Transition initiatives and the United States National Broadband Plan (2010), you have no idea what you are what you are talking about backwater boy.

      • The issues are those referenced by Analysys Mason in the report where DOCSIS 3.1 is quoted as the solution.

        Search the article for “DOCSIS 3.1”. The term only appears twice and the first time it is mentioned immediately after the statement:

        “In particular, it needs to ensure that demand for upstream bandwidth can be met.”

        Sorry that Analysys Mason aren’t saying that there is no need for increase in upstream bandwidth as you no doubt would prefer.

      • You answered your own question, because it is a mature technology that uses old existing in ground infrastructure that needs lots of remediation.

        Fixed that for you hon :o)

        • Fiber To the User is eating cables lunch so Comcast rescues itself by deploying Gigabit Pro FTTP service (2Gbps synchronous) to 18 million homes on their footprint.

  14. Great timing of the release of these documents (all sounding positive). Glad I’m not a cynic.

    I think what most would like to see would be the information NBN provided to Analysys Mason, in particular their estimates for range of costs for the different technologies, and how that would affect revenues going forwards over the next decades.

    Or perhaps that’s not something they wanted comment upon…

    Building a dirt road “prudently and efficiently” does not help when you should/could have built a freeway for a similar price.

  15. A commissioned report which is supportive of the company paying for it.
    Knock me down with a feather and call me ……

  16. As Isaaac Asimov would would say “The relativity of wrong”.

    Any argument that an inferior system is cost effective is just plain wrong. For it ignores the reality of the laws of physics and the absolute limits of copper. Plus, who pays for the cost of electricity to run these boxes? Then we have the problem where the average urban motorists has an uncanny aim to hit anything that is of critical importance in their line of sight.

    Thus the author was bribed or just didn’t give a damn about getting all the relevant facts straight in a carefully orchestrated cherry picked nonsensical illogical circular piece of propaganda. One that was written to evade the real issues and scandals that beset NBN under Ziggy’s poorly managed organization since 2013.

    After all, think of the greatest bargain of the century, for the near bankrupt capital depleted under performing losing customers everyday hapless self destructive Sing-Tel Optus!

    Ziggy paid eight hundred million dollars of Oz tax payer monies for a decommissioned worthless junk network. The network requires massive upgrades and costs will exceed another four hundred to one billion dollars to fix. Much of the Sing-Tel Optus cable is in areas slated for FTTN. What a complete waste of money Ziggy! Who benefits? Where are the real kickbacks going? One would have to follow the money trail to find fraud in this transaction.

    There is an old saying, fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me.

    • “Then we have the problem where the average urban motorists has an uncanny aim to hit anything that is of critical importance in their line of sight.”

      If this were truly an issue the T$ pillars would be getting hit an awful lot knocking out phones to 100’s/1000’s of homes on a regular basis.

  17. I sure am glad they decided to commission a report into the wisdom of their plan 3 years after enacting it. Sounds a very plausible result. In completely unrelated news, anyone ever noticed how people often say exactly what their clients want them to?

  18. ZDNet also had an article with links to “Dr Steven Bishop and Professor Bob Officer [PDF]”.
    It seems to covers the pricing models, and assumptions, as used by the regulator and points out that the Telstra WACC risk margin allowed has been 338 basis points (though higher at some point), for an endorsed 350 basis points for Ruddstra.
    Weird, given how Ruddstra is a fed gov wholesale broadband access monopolistic business enterprise with oligopolistic comms service providers …
    Good thing there is other fibre and wireless around, be it access, aggregation or core.

    • Being govt doesn’t mitigate most risks (only access to borrowings); indeed their deliverable record is (unimaginably) disastrous. NBN policy alone is one of missed KPIs, cost blowouts, glacial rollout and underperforming revenue.

      “The ability to use existing infrastructure as part of the construction of the NBN network rather than simply retiring such infrastructure – effectively throwing away potentially billions of dollars of sunk investments – will clearly allow for more efficient construction of networks that meet the expectations set forth for the NBN network,” they [Ordover and Shampine] said. “Those networks will not be the same as without the MTM, but the upgrading of existing infrastructure is an economically reasonable policy that makes efficient use of available assets.
      http://www.afr.com/brand/chanticleer/turnbulls-nbn-strategy-gets-thumbs-up-from-independent-experts-20160531-gp8hh7

      No surprise to the financially numerate and technically literate.

      • A shame, then, that the project costs and rollout timeframes have over doubled since the Coalition came into power – for a network that was supposed to be completed this year; a network that currently 10% of Australians can access, and only 4% of those (ie 0.4% of all Aussies) are using the Coalitions technology.

          • You lump FttN in with FttB for a very good reason there is far less than 1% on the FttN architecture why did you do that?

            We all know why the real numbers are crap and you like to mislead. If you too FttN out the percentage does not go down.

          • Adrian B,

            You lump FttN in with FttB for a very good reason there is far less than 1% on the FttN architecture why did you do that?

            So FTTB using the existing copper runs to apartments, that’s why the FTTB deployment are fast and was a Coalition NBN Co initiative you want left out in any reporting because you prefer it didn’t happen?

          • Reality

            I can go back 3-4 years and show posts of me saying that FttB should be used. You don’t care what people actually say and have actually said should happen because you are more interested in calling people Fibre Zealots.

            FttB is different for a number of key reasons the most important two are

            Telstra does not own it the building does
            Extremely short runs to the apartments

            It is still classed as FttP as well.

          • So FTTB using the existing copper runs to apartments

            Who said it’s just copper runs in apartments? A lot of the modern ones are CAT 5

          • AB hotc wrote “[4%] are using the Coalitions technology.”

            Conroy prohibited Quigley’s use of FTTB. MDU’s (1/3rd premises “passed”) stuck at service class zero (unserviceable) at the time of 2013 election. Great work;-)

            Quigley didn’t deliver FTTP, only FTTH. Massive challenge (cost & time) entering premises, failure predicted from day one (historical actuals confirms it).

          • Richard

            “Quigley didn’t deliver FTTP, only FTTH”

            PMSL!
            This quote tells me everything about your lack broadband knowledge. FTTP and FTTH acronyms mean exactly the same thing!

            I prefer the term “Fiber To The User” FTTU or simply just Ultra Fast Broadband because the end user can be a home, business, factory, medical practice, manufacturer, university or school, power plant, government etc etc etc.

            Give your iPad back to your mother kid!

          • Hotc invents a figure, we’re all suppose to be using it?

            SN claims FTTP (premise) & FTTH (individual unit) are the same? Now FTTB is no longer FTTP?

          • “Hotc invents a figure, we’re all suppose to be using it?”
            If you haven’t been keeping up with literally week-old stats there’s not much I can do to help you.

        • Hotcakes,

          A shame, then, that the project costs and rollout timeframes have over doubled since the Coalition came into power

          No they haven’t.

          – for a network that was supposed to be completed this year;

          No it wasn’t.

          a network that currently 10% of Australians can access, and only 4% of those (ie 0.4% of all Aussies) are using the Coalitions technology.

          You left out the fact FTTN was only released September last year, and that the Coalitions technology includes FTTP greenfields, fixed wireless and satellite.

          • No they haven’t.

            Nice assertion.

            No it wasn’t.

            Just don’t look anyone in the eye as you say it.

            You left out the fact FTTN was only released September last year

            Good one, just avoid the fact they started 2.5 years ago *nods approvingly*

            I think you’ll do just fine, welcome to the LPA Astroturfer Guild.

          • “No they haven’t.”
            $71.6b is over double $29.5b. Moreover, $56b may as well be double $29.5b. You’ve not a leg to stand on. Just a flesh wound, eh?

            “No it wasn’t.”
            For the second time (to go unanswered), please point me to the Coalition policy pre-2013 election whereby they said some Australians will have access to 25Mbps by 2020.

            “You left out the fact FTTN was only released September last year, ”
            Irrelevant to the statistic quoted (ie your post is invalid). The promised policy was 100% of Australians being covered by the end of this year.

            “and that the Coalitions technology includes FTTP greenfields, fixed wireless and satellite.”
            Those were technologies being rolled out prior to the Coalition, and while I won’t bother contesting wireless or satellite percentages (because they have changed, not because Labor didn’t initiate them), there is not a single nbn-connected FTTP rollout initiated by the Coalition or the Coalition nbn to this date. Feel free to Cite otherwise.

  19. Just management and business doing what they do. These reports are commissioned, not to inform, but to so management are not held responsible for decisions. It’s the way it is these days with the fly by night CEO roundabout. Few years here doing whatever ever is required to score your bonus, have lots of consultant reports to cover what you did, then onto the next company before the shit hits the fan.

  20. An over 100% increase in rollout timeframe and an over 100% increase in rollout cost is efficient??? Credibility Mason they are not.

    • Hotcakes,

      An over 100% increase in rollout timeframe

      Incorrect.

      and an over 100% increase in rollout cost

      Incorrect.

      Credibility Mason they are not.

      Two out of two wrong and your ‘credibility’ remains intact?

      LOL

      • 25-100Mbps to 100% of houses by the end of 2016 > 25-100Mbps to 100% of houses by 2020

        2013-2016 = 3 Years. 2013-2020 = 7 Years
        Sounds like more than 100% increase in timeframe to me.

        “Fully costed $29.5B” to “Currently estimated between $46B – $56B”

        Granted, not technically double. Yet. But that cost is still not “Fully costed” as it relies on massive amounts of guesswork regarding the condition of the copper network.

        It’s almost as if you don’t even try any more, Devoid

      • “Incorrect.”
        3 years is less than half of 7 years.

        “Incorrect.”
        $29.5b is practically half of $56b, and less than half of $71.6b.

        “Two out of two wrong and your ‘credibility’ remains intact?”
        Given basic maths, yes I at least appear to have that. More than some can say it seems.

  21. It’s rather telling that the only “issue” they could find was HFC upload speed. Seems like it’s just another “paid for” pat on the back for MtM.

    • WOW, just WOW. Did someone in Australia actually find out what upload speeds are used for.

      Perhaps they have only just been recently using Adobe Creative Cloud.

      Wait until all applications, including enterprise applications are developed, tested and deployed in the Cloud. Additionally there is IoT, Big Data and VR.

      The future is NOW!

      • Thats one of my big gripes with “Innovation Malcolm”, he may have owned an ISP in the 90’s, but he just doesn’t get it any more…

        Soon as he sold OzEmail, he lost”it”, became a politician and showed his real stripes.

        • Pseudo History!

          The founder of Ozemail was Sean Howard in the early 1992. WorldCom (MCI) acquired Ozemail in 1999. This was when Turnbull was *chairman* of Ozemail.

          Turnbull purchased a stake in Ozemail in 1994 for $500,000 and sold it in 1999 for $57 million to WorldCom. (See WorldCom scandal c.2002)

          Additionally this shows he has no respect for technology particularly copyright, intellectual property and trade practices matters during his watch
          http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/cases/cth/federal_ct/1996/560.html

          • Who are you? And where have you been until now? Your posts the last two days have been impressive – blunt, but impressive nonetheless ;-)

          • Snow Crash has been around a while, he hasn’t been around much recently unfortunately.

            Glad you are back sir.

          • Thank you UninvitedGuest & Derek O

            I’ve been around for a long time. My career in ICT commenced in 1978. If you have seen all my recent posts you should know that I moved to the U.S. in 2005 to begin a startup as there was nothing for me in Australia. This has been very successful and dreams have come true. We are about to embark on another project which is our fourth and perhaps it might be our final.

            I have been lurking here for a few years but rarely post anything as politics is not my cup of tea. Technology & politics is a poisonous unproductive mix.

            Most people would know me from the tens of thousands tweets, mostly providing informative links using the #NBN hashtag account @Snow_Crash which I created in February 2011.

            My namesake “Snow Crash” is derived from a best seller cyberpunk novel Snow Crash by Neal Stephenson published in 1992. In 2007, this amazing book fueled my interest in the Metaverse. Ready Player One by Ernest Cline is another good read.

            Because of my interest in the Metaverse, I have been a resident in the 3D virtual world Second Life since 2007 which also extended a long term interest in 3D modelling with Lightwave3D and Blender.

            Unfortunately I won’t be back for long because in a week or so I will need to concentrate on the new tech project that’s ahead of me in San Francisco.

            Bluntness is a Sagittarian trait and my arrows of desire hit right on the bulls eye….. usually :-)

          • as there was nothing for me in Australia

            Thanks to the coalition clowns destructive & politically motivated broadband policy there wont be much for anyone really.

          • Well thanks for stopping by – some informed, well referenced commentary is very much appreciated. The silence from the media (indeed, partisan propaganda machine) is truly £#@&ing scary – even the entirely independent Guardian is barely covering the topic, despite it demonstrating endemic criminality at the highest levels of government and underpinning our entire future economy. It would be nice to just move to a more enlightened country and forget about the mass stupidity of a country of luddites, but sadly that’s not viable for all of us :-/ (not a dig at you, just lamenting the fact that I can’t leave, too)

  22. http://www.nbnco.com.au/content/dam/nbnco/documents/analysys-mason-report.pdf

    2012 NBN independent Analysys Mason give the thumbs up to a future proofed FTTP network.

    “NBN Co’s adoption of a centralised GPON architecture is both efficient and prudent, as it
    represents the best choice of architecture from a long-term cost-management perspective and
    from a network scalability and flexibility perspective.”

    Efficient and prudent.. Now where have I heard that line before

    • It’s times like these that the internet can do good. Check it out Richard ( Dicky ) baby.

    • So *both* parties used this group to have them provide a ‘prudent and efficient’ choice of technology for the NBN?
      And this group gave completely different methodologies and technologies a ‘prudent and efficient’ thumbs up?

      Methinks this group is being paid to provide the desired analysis.

      • Methinks this group is being paid to provide the desired analysis.

        No wai!! They are a legitimate company working hard to provide jobs and growth…

    • And yet their latest “analysis” only looks at the very short term, 4 years in fact.

      • That actually seems reasonable to me. I’d suggest we’ll commence the process of ripping out and replacing the MTM components around then…

    • I wonder how much the LibTards coughed up to make them change their minds all of a sudden!

  23. Let me get this straight. An analyst report that was commissioned by the NBN itself and we get handed the public (read censored) version?

    What a surprise it’s full of good news!

    They forgot to emblazen the cover with SPECIAL “GOOD NEWS” ELECTION EDITION.

  24. The report shows bandwidth growth requiring speeds >100Mb past 2020, which pretty much disagrees with the Communications Chamber report the CBA relied on.
    They assume they are covered by things like G.Fast. I’d love to see the CBA with all these extra upgrades costed, because there were no upgrades until after 2040 in the CBA. They have already eaten up $16B of the $18B “savings”, those upgrades need to be <$2B (as if) for the MTM to even break even with the FTTH rollout long term.

  25. Note that Analysys Mason also described Labor’s FTTP/wireless/satellite model as prudent and efficient in 2012.

    It would be interesting to see which praiseworthy factors in FTTP have been dropped in order to get the Muddleheaded Technology Mess across the line.

    It could also be worth asking Analysys Mason to do a side-by-side comparison or a cost-benefit comparison.

    The 2012 report praising FTTP is at https://www.accc.gov.au/system/files/Analysys%20Mason%20-%20Review%20of%20the%20efficiency%20and%20prudency%20of%20NBN%20Co's%20fibre%20and%20wireless%20network%20design%20(2%20March%202012).pdf

  26. It’s amusing to see the ‘outrage’ from the armchair supporters of FTTP on the Analysys Mason Report.

    You need to remind yourself what the report is for, it forms one of a range of reports the NBN Co submitted to the ACCC as part of their Special Access Undertaking variation submission.

    The ACCC decides on the viability of the content of that and all the other reports when it makes its judgement on the NBN Co SAU later this year.

    What FTTP fans and MtM hater ‘commentators’ biased opinion is on the report is totally irrelevant.

    • Unlike your unbiased armchair support of MTM. You’ve always been totally irrelevant. Sweet dreams of Margaret Thatcher for you Reality. Anodos for the conservatives.

    • It’s amusing to see the ‘outrage’ from the armchair supporters of FTTP on the Analysys Mason Report.

      It’s way more amusing to see your confected outrage about the imagined outrage you think we have about it ;o)

      Lots Of Love <3

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