Turnbull’s MTM NBN plan “in crisis” says Jason Clare

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news The Opposition today said the Multi-Technology Mix plan which Malcolm Turnbull imposed on the National Broadband Network project was “in crisis”, following revelations published over the weekend that its Fibre to the Node centrepiece was substantially behind projections and suffering a litany of issues.

Over the weekend, the Sydney Morning Herald published an article about an internal NBN company document, entitled ‘Scale the Deployment Program: FTTx Design and Construction’. Delimiter this morning published the document in question here in PDF format. It appears to have been authored by the NBN company’s chief network engineering officer Peter Ryan.

The document notes that the NBN company had at 19 February this year only successfully completed construction of its Fibre to the Node network to some 29,005 premises — far short of its target of 94,273 for that date. The report pins much of the delays on issues with electricity companies, which appear to be having problems getting power to the neighbourhood ‘nodes’ used in a FTTN rollout.

Labor’s previous near-universal Fibre to the Premises rollout for the NBN would not have suffered the same problems, as it does not rely on electrical power to neighbourhood ‘nodes’.

In a doorstop interview outside Parliament House this morning, Shadow Communications Minister Jason Clare said the report showed the MTM plan for the NBN — initiated by Malcolm Turnbull as Communications Minister — showed the plan was “in crisis”.

“Malcolm Turnbull has basically had one job for the last two and a half years and that’s to build the NBN, and he has made a shocking mess of it. Malcolm Turnbull has been a failure as Communications Minister and a failure in building the NBN,” said Clare.
 
“The cost of it has doubled under Malcolm Turnbull. The time it’s going to take to build to build the NBN is twice what Malcolm Turnbull promised. The cost of fixing the old copper network to make it work has blown out by a thousand per cent.”

“Where they are switching this on, in the Central Coast, in the Hunter, in Bundaberg it’s not working properly and now today this extremely damaging leak on the front page of newspapers across the country, which is only just over a week old, a confidential document from NBN Co, which reveals that they are two thirds behind in the construction rollout of their second rate fibre-to-the-node.”
 
“This is a massive failure. This is an epic fail. Malcolm Turnbull was a failure Communications Minister. It is proven by this story today and so far he has been a failure as Prime Minister.”

Clare said Turnbull was “fantastic at talking” — “he could talk under water with a mouth full of marbles” — but that the Prime Minister had problems making decisions.

“He can’t make decisions and when he makes decisions like going back to the old second rate copper network, it’s a shocker. We’ve got this terrible mess with the NBN.”

Clare was asked by a journalist whether it was “hypocritical” for Labor to highlight this week’s FTTN report, when the NBN had also faced cost blowouts and time delays under the previous Rudd/Gillard Labor administrations.

“Lets be very clear about this, Malcolm Turnbull has had the job of building the NBN for two and a half years,” responded Clare. “He’s got no one else to blame for this but himself. Remember the promises he made. I am only holding Malcolm Turnbull to account here for the promises he made.”
 
“He said he would build it for $29.5 billion, it’s blown out by up to $26 billion dollars, up to $56 billion. It’s doubled. If anybody else doubled the cost of their project, doubled their budget they would get the sack. They wouldn’t get promoted. But Malcolm Turnbull instead of getting the sack has been promoted.”
 
“He told everyone that they would all get the NBN by the end of this year. Malcolm Turnbull’s promised that everyone across the country would get the NBN by 2016. If you’re watching this on the internet and you are still buffering then blame Malcolm Turnbull because he promised you’d have the NBN this year. It’s now blown out to 2020 and what this story today shows is that they may not even make 2020. It may blow out to 2021 or 2022.”

In a separate statement, Clare pointed out that the power problems being experienced by the NBN company in connecting its FTTN network would not have been experienced under Labor’s FTTP model.

“The delays are due mostly to problems with connecting mains power to Malcolm Turnbull’s large street side copper cabinets,” Clare said. “These problems are entirely of Malcolm Turnbull’s making.”

“Fibre-to-the-premises – Labor’s 21st century broadband technology which was abandoned by Malcolm Turnbull so he could roll out last century’s copper technology – is a passive network that does not require mains power.”

“The documents also reveal that Malcolm Turnbull’s copper NBN is coming in over-budget, despite NBN Co’s recent assurances that the cost was tracking as expected in NBN Co’s Corporate Plan 2016.”

Fifield’s response
Communications Minister Mitch Fifield issued his own statement this morning in response to what he said were “claims” regarding the NBN in the media.

“The NBN is on track to meet its targets for the financial year, within the budget set out in the company’s corporate plan. Any suggestion to the contrary is just wrong,” said Fifield. “The company has met its targets for the past six quarters in a row.  This is in stark contrast to management under Labor, when the company had barely managed to connect 50,000 users after four years.”

In contrast, Fifield said, the Coalition Government had taken a “business-like approach to managing the NBN project”.
 
“After two terms of Government, Labor had upgraded broadband to just 1 in 50 premises in Australia,” he said. “By the end of this year, the NBN will have upgraded 1 in 4 premises and by the end of 2018 it will have extended to 3 in 4 premises. Our changes to the rollout will see the project finished six to eight years sooner than reverting to Labor’s approach, and at around $30 billion less cost.”

Fifield said that the previous Labor Government had “failed to meet every rollout target it set itself”.

“For Labor to tell communities they would have had NBN sooner under them is simply wrong,” he said. “The NBN under Labor was one of the most poorly managed projects in the history of the Commonwealth.”

“The 2016 nbn Corporate Plan estimates that continuing with an all-fibre build to completion would require funding of between $74 billion and $84 billion, and could not be completed until at least 2026. That’s $30 billion more and six to eight years later than the current roll out.”

Fifield said Labor had indicated that it would return the NBN to its previous “extravagant FTTP disaster”, “further adding to the black hole of their unfunded policy announcements”. “Under Labor, around $6.5 billion was spent to deliver broadband to less than 3 per cent of premises,” he said.

Image credit: Parliamentary Broadcasting

53 COMMENTS

  1. MTM patchwork is an unmitigated disaster. The disaster predicted by many (including myself) but the coalition clowns thought they knew better. Such a wasteful and politically motivated policy and we are now seeing the result of that idiocy today. Copper fanboy knuckle-draggers on various forum loved it before the election (some even endorsed the disaster) are trying to spin it as best they can, the rest are in denial when they should be apologising to us.

    • Yeah, funny how that little word ‘sorry’ would go a long way to restoring some level of credibility, even for those who have conscientiously argued blindly and disingenuously against the tide of facts and reality for years.

  2. “After two terms of Government, Labor had upgraded broadband to just 1 in 50 premises in Australia,” he said. “By the end of this year, the NBN will have upgraded 1 in 4 premises and by the end of 2018 it will have extended to 3 in 4 premises. Our changes to the rollout will see the project finished six to eight years sooner than reverting to Labor’s approach, and at around $30 billion less cost.”

    He’s getting very clever with his words now. Its full of half truths and omissions. None of it is outright lies, but the way its phrased makes it as good as one.

    • Well the lie is $30b and 6-8 years sooner when he quoting there own fake counter factual

      • This is where he’s getting clever/devious. He’s not saying its $30b cheaper and 6-8 years faster than labors original FTTP plan, but that it is cheaper and faster than reverting back to labors original plan. I have no doubt that currently it would be considered true. It may be that further down the track FTTN has another cost blowout, making it more expensive than reverting to FTTP.

        Its purely a political game for the coalition now. Facts are simply there to be warped to say whatever you want them to say. People who don’t know otherwise and/or are right leaning will likely believe them. Our media (present company excluded) rarely calls them out for it. People will believe what they want to.

        • Yes but claiming reverting back to labor original version plan and then quoting the figures from the fictional sr1.5 which include the cost blows of the MTM is not telling the truth either

        • Maybe its just me but I thought that the FttP + Sat + Wireless numbers added up to a whole lot more than 2% ;) that 1 in 4 aka 25% they are heading for is mostly what the prior mob put in place and then some.

  3. What became of the project destroying asbestos in the pits? The same as the urgency of Debt and Deficit.

    Mitch should stop digging. In the light of the government’s appalling credibility gaps, no criticism by either him or Malcom of Labor’s plan carries any weight. Having commented on the document, it is no long commercial in confidence.

  4. “Our changes to the rollout will see the project finished six to eight years sooner than reverting to Labor’s approach, and at around $30 billion less cost.”
    Imagine my surprise when a whole sentence was actually correct! The addition of the word ‘reverting’ finally making its rightful appearance. Now if only Alain could understand what that word means.

    • He’s currently too busy focusing on whether Labor or the Greens are releasing their policy details, because that apparently matters when the Liberals are currently still in power, in control of the rollout, and all this is still happening.

    • Reverting? Uhmm Reversing,?
      It means switching back from fttn to ftth.. That’s the cost Mitchell is referring to. A big scary figure, but what he should have been doing is comparing the cost of fttn to the original cost of ftth had the rollout continued.
      In any case reverting back to ftth now, would be cheaper than having to overbuild the fttn later on.

    • Irony is that reverting to a fibre rollout is inevitable, so that extra $30 billion is actually an estimate of the additional cost imposed by the current governments approach.

      • Not if you listen to the LibTrolls here, they’ll all tell you that FTTP isnt the goal, and that FTTN can handle anything we need for the future, and if it can’t, some kind of magical new technology will come along to make fibre obsolete.

      • Indeed David, it’s currently the most accurate figure we have for the full cost of the MTMassacre, excluding ongoing costs. And a whoppingly small number considering up to $56b of that is the MTM costs.

    • The funny thing about their reverting claim is that it is at complete odds with their claim that it is cheaper to build FTTN then upgrade it to FTTH. So which is it?

  5. “The NBN is on track to meet its targets for the financial year, within the budget set out in the company’s corporate plan. Any suggestion to the contrary is just wrong,” said Fifield. “The company has met its targets for the past six quarters in a row. This is in stark contrast to management under Labor, when the company had barely managed to connect 50,000 users after four years.”
    More lies and spin.

  6. How the hell does Mitch expect to get away with saying what he does when under his watch the times blown out 225% and the cost has more than doubled (amongst other issues)?

    These people need to return to the real world, actually do what we pay them to do and quit all this “mines shorter/cheaper than yours” bullshit…

  7. There’s a difference between targets and promises. A target is aimed at for guidance, internal. A promise is kept, external.

    • Not to the LNP, to the LNP a promise is something they can pretend to aim for, then ignore because they never intended to meet it in the first place.

        • Unless a promise is to a Big Biz mate, it’s actually known as a “non-core promise” and can be discarded when it suits the Libs.

          • I thought all there polices are non core. Abit like the disappearance of the budget emergency

          • Abit like the disappearance of the budget emergency

            What budget emergency? Much like “Malcolm Turnbull policy” and ScoMo Unicorns, it doesn’t exist ;o)

  8. Well if the LNPs NBN is ‘in crisis’ then Labors NBN was in meltdown.

    At least the LNP has a viable plan for connecting all these houses at far higher speeds (most likely) than they get now, Labors 93% FTTP plan was not only unviable from a financial point of view, it never even would have been completed in 4 to 5 years from now nationwide. Logic dictates that if the time frames were never going to be met, then the budgets wouldn’t have either.

    And this is confirmed by Labors NBN missing target after target after target, and they even reduced the targets artifically, and still proceeded to miss them.

    Everyone knows fibre is SLOWWWW to roll out. Labor drew up their plan on the back of a napkin, they passed homes that already had HFC Cable 100+ mbps downloads with fibre when they should have prioritised areas with bad or no copper.

    Now Labor has wasted all the possible FTTP money Australia can afford passing all those areas that were already well served, all the LNP can do is try to complete the rest of the areas with alternative technologies as fast as possible.

    We are over $500 billlion in debt as a country and growing rapidly, revenues are in decline all over the place, the world is on the brink of financial catastrophe, and we cannot afford to be rolling out fibre optic cable to empty homes, and homes that don’t even use the Internet or don’t want such high speeds in the first place.

    The LNP is responsible, it will deliver the fastest possible speeds to the most people it possibly can and the project can be completed on time and as close to budget as possible and sold off around 2020 as was Labors plan in the first place.

    Labor lied about the finances, they lied about the time frames, they lied about the roll out map, areas that NBN were barely discussing starting work was marked incorrectly as rolling out now. It was a complete dogs breakfast typical of Labors other budgets and financing you only have to look at the Health Services Union and other matters to see what these people are like.

    Labors Jason Clare said that any new fibre rollout would be ‘limited’ EVEN IF they win the election they WILL NOT go back to a 93% FTTP rollout because of many reasons including the fact they know how hard it is and how long it takes and how expensive it is and they know its just simply not possible.

    Wake up people.

    Even if you DO elect them its not going to happen people! Even by their own admissions.

    • Now if you want to do the maths it’s been estimated to cost over $4,000 per premises to roll out FTTP to 93% of the country, go and calculate yourself $4,000 times how many premises are left WE CAN’T AFFORD IT FOLKS!

      We can’t afford to hand out $4,000 to thousands and thousands and thousands of premises!

      WAKE UP!

      • We can, because the returns on investment are twice that of fttn, the asset is valued twice that of fttn, the maintenance costs are half that of fttn . Do the maths.

      • We cant afford not to!!

        But stupid LibTroll’s like you clearly have no friggin idea what it will take for us to be globally competitive in the next few decades because all you know is digging stuff up and bulk shipping it OS!

      • 10,000 premises costs $40,000,000 ($40 million dollars)
        100,000 premises costs $400,000,000 ($400 million dollars)
        1,000,000 million premises costs $4,000,000,000 ($4 billion dollars)
        10,000,000 million premises costs $40,000,000,000,000 ($40 billion dollars)

        ESTIMATE. Back of NAPKIN like Labor.

        Now many of these might cost far more than $4,000, as has already been the case where NBN has had to drill through solid rock in some cases requiring civil works projects the costs could be many times $4,000 for that 1 house they had to do all that work for which would be a massive blow out.

        NBN has to actually make a profit or else the government will never be able to sell it without taking a MASSIVE multi-tens of billions of dollars LOSS.

        Thats YOUR tax money that could have gone to hospitals and roads and many many other things STRAIGHT DOWN THE DRAIN if the finances DO NOT ADD UP just as Labors DID NOT.

        The cost of the NBN has already blown out to $56 billion dollars, now we scrap all the contracts already entered into yet again, chuck another $40 billion+ but probably double that by the time it gets done due to delays and problems so lets say $80 billion because that’s entirely possible so $80 billion plus $56 billion thats $136 BILLION if we go back to a 93% FTTP rollout.

        Where on EARTH is Labor going to get all that money? Debt. They will borrow it and when they finish building this network to many houses that don’t even want or need it, they will then proceed to WRITE OFF a large percentage of that money straight down the drain in order to make it attractive enough to sell off.

        The FTTP advocates would argue we must do this because the economic benefit will outweigh all those tens of billions of WASTE. PROVE IT!

        And by the way this would not take until 2020 it would be most likely at least 2040 to 2050 before it ever even remotely gets close to being finished. Based on the delays from before.

        • “10,000 premises costs $40,000,000 ($40 million dollars)
          100,000 premises costs $400,000,000 ($400 million dollars)
          1,000,000 million premises costs $4,000,000,000 ($4 billion dollars)
          10,000,000 million premises costs $40,000,000,000,000 ($40 billion dollars)”

          and at what would have likely been ~8% return that’s a $3.2B profit

          please explain to me where making 3.2Billion is a bad idea whilst building something that will last for the next 50+ years?

          meh I should just stick to quoting Derek O far more appropriate lol.

          • Yeah this particular troll has a no clue, he just spouts lib propaganda as tho it somehow trumps the real world.

          • These types have always tried to dumb it down to their level, by simply saying FttN is quicker to roll out and cheaper, sans all of the detail.

            Detail such as the elusive B in cBa they never mention (even though they all screamed for a previous CBA which was of paramount importance). The increased ROI for FttP, future needs (i.e. even the people who dubbed FttN fraudband admit FttP is the “end goal” – so those costs then?), the need for upgrading/replacing existing infrastructure (making a mockery of their entire reuse argument), roll out blow outs, cost blow outs and they weren’t a startup like NBNCo, they had the foundations in place all on the back of Quigley & co, all they had to do was steer, but….

            As I have said all along, there are only two rational reasons why people must contradict, spin and out ‘n’ out lie to support a dumb, retrograde network for themselves and the rest of us.

            Mindless, dumb subservient, ideology and/or personal greed.

        • “MTM is current at $46Bn – $56Bn of peak funding yes?

          The rollout is 2.4m premises getting FTTP (unknown number of brownfield/greenfield), 4.5m getting FTTN/B (unknown number split between N and B), 4.0m getting HFC, 0.6m on Fixed Wireless and 0.4m on Satellite.

          Even if we are overly pessimistic, you’re looking at 10.56Bn for the FTTP portion (assuming ALL are brownfields, which they aren’t, at $4400 per premises), 10.45bn for FTTN/B, 7.2Bn for HFC, 2.94Bn for Wireless and 3.16Bn for Satellite, using the CPP figures from CP16 for a total infrastructure cost of $34.21Bn to get to the $46Bn of the CP16, you’re looking at an additional $12bn. Kay?

          HFC in the HFC area and FTTP everywhere else in the fixed line rollout (save for FTTB in MDUs though, we still dont know how many that is so lets just call them FTTP for the sake of argument) has, HFC (4.0m premises) at $7.2Bn and even assuming all the properties are brownfields, FTTP (6.9m premises) at $30.36Bn with Wireless and Satellite the same as the MTM rollout, for a total infrastructure cost of $43.66Bn + the same $12Bn from the MTM as the additional expenditure, you have $55.66Bn.

          So, MTM you’re looking at $46 – 56Bn to rollout, where a modern scenario 4 you’re looking at (even when fudging numbers and not including greenfields FTTP AT ALL) $56 – 66Bn.

          So, what is essentially $10Bn more over the build of the project, which is what… a 10 year build? $1Bn more a year in peak funding, for a vastly superior and actually futureproof network.

          D’oh, those CP16 figures….

          Even less now to go and roll FTTP out to the remaining fixed line footprint if you don’t go back and overbuild the FTTN already built/in construction/end of planning stage.

          But who wants to let facts get in the way of a good argument based entirely on ideology?”

      • Lol Aaricus

        Is that viable plan the $29B complete by this year. That is now up to $56B and 5 years late.

        Lnp reduce there targets 3 times in one year and then claimed they hit a target. So far they have also missed there everyone to get 25Mbps by this year. As well as the SR target of 4.5M connected this year. As the CP16 only expects 2.5M connected this year.

        This is where you lose your argument back of a napkin. Turnbull own review said it took 8 weeks for the first expert panel to decide on FTTP. If took Turnbull 5 weeks to decide MTM. So if 8 weeks was back of a napkin then Turnbull’s must have been a brain fart.

        Our other resident MTM supporter states the current HFC can’t to the 25Mbps required in the SOE. But then there are less than 1/4 of the NBN HFC foot print using HFC now.

        Competed on time and budget lol. Missed the $29B and 2016 or is that completed on time and budget.

        We are not order $500b it is about $330B. Much like the LNP claiming we are $667B. Lol on time and budget again.

        LNP lied about the finances, they lied about the time frames, they lied about the roll out.

        Time and cost increase as stated in the CP16 of up to $84B and complete by y26-28. Which includes the cost blowouts of the current MTM. Image if we didn’t switch the SR had FTTP at $64B and y23. So $20B more and 2 years behind target or $8B more than the current mess not like the $27B more and 5 years behind target.

        You know both labor and LNP have caped investment in the NBN. Labor cap was $30B the LNP $29B so just $1B difference.

      • I have to remember to stop reading comments from people that use the word “FOLKS”

        • I see ‘Arricus’, notice the unhinged frothing at the mouth religious fervor and simply skip to the next comment. There’s no point either reading or responding to these… diseased minds.

          • Unhinged certainly is an apt description for this particular LibTroll, he makes Alain/Reality look positively well adjusted!

    • The MTM uses a MIX of technologies including FttP.

      Simple instruct the NBN Co to use FttP unless the cost is much much more.

      In many places the Brownfields FttP rollout was similar in cost to the FttN rollout in those cases use FttP.

      • We’ve already bought the copper. We’re already locked in to paying Telstra to Maintain it. We’re already locked in for 10 years to maintain HFC for foxtel.

        Malcolm also signed 6 year contracts not 2 not 3 … 6 years so we’d be locked into MTM!

        • Are we? Maybe the NBNCo actually got something right for a change.

          After numerous calls about crackly phones, over years, after every rainy period, I finally see some action!

          For the last few weeks there have been Telstra vans everywhere in my suburb, and they have all the pillars and pits open, and they are re-terminating everything in sight!

    • “Well if the LNPs NBN is ‘in crisis’ then Labors NBN was in meltdown.”
      Yup, the only portion of the MTM (FTTP) to provide ROI is ‘in meltdown’.

      “At least the LNP has a viable plan”
      So long as you consider doubling the estimated cost and doubling the estimated time for a plan that always needed to be superseded from the beginning (according to the plan makers) to be ‘viable’, then I guess you can get away with spouting any old nonsense, eh?

      “Labors 93% FTTP plan was not only unviable from a financial point of view”
      Yup, the only portion of the MTM (FTTP) to provide ROI is ‘unviable’.

      ” it never even would have been completed in 4 to 5 years from now nationwide”
      Which would have been appropriate given it was scheduled to be completed in 6 years from now nationwide…

      “Logic dictates that if the time frames were never going to be met”
      Are you referring to the FTTP models’ 2 year delay after 6 years of planning and development, in the face of the MTMs’ 4 year delay after 2 years of pure development?

      “Labors NBN missing target after target after target, and they even reduced the targets artifically”
      Of course the Liberals would never ‘revise’ their targets 4 times in 2 years, no siree.

      So much crap, so little time to refute crap. This will have to do you. Basically owned 4 times in your first paragraph alone… Not a good start…

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