Turnbull will abandon FTTN copper for FTTdp, says Clare

147

news Malcolm Turnbull’s Coalition Government will “ditch” its plans to deploy Fibre to the Node infrastructure over Telstra’s copper network prior to the 2016 Election and instead focus on deploying fibre to the ‘distribution point’ or driveway of premises on the National Broadband Network, the Opposition said yesterday.

Under Labor’s previous near-universal Fibre to the Premises model for the NBN, the HFC cable and copper networks owned by Telstra and Optus would have been shut down. However, the Coalition’s Multi-Technology Mix plan instituted by Malcolm Turnbull as Communications Minister in the Abbott administration is seeing them acquired and upgraded by the NBN company.

One of the key technologies being used, Fibre to the Node, has come under sustained attack over the past several years, as many Australian technical experts believe it will not serve Australians’ telecommunications needs for more than a handful of years.

FTTN also relies heavily on Telstra’s copper network. internal documents released by the Opposition last week showed that, by the NBN company’s own estimates, the cost of remediating Telstra’s network had blown out by a factor of ten from original expectations, to about $641 million, with the cost of rolling out infrastructure to each premise via Fibre to the Node having blown out substantially.

Speaking at the launch of Labor’s National Information Policy yesterday, Clare delivered what has become a regular attack on the performance of Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull — formerly Communications Minister — in rolling out the NBN.

“The NBN is now rolling out slower than Turnbull promised and it is costing more, much more than Malcolm Turnbull promised,” said Clare. “He said he would build the NBN, this was a promise at the last election, he promised he would build it for $29.5 billion. That has now blown out to almost, or up to $56 billion. He also promised that all Australians would get access to the NBN by the end of next year. Now that has blown out to 2020.”

However, one unusual aspect of Clare’s comments was that the Shadow Minister predicted Turnbull would substantially modify the NBN’s rollout model prior to the upcoming 2016 Federal Election.

“The NBN company now is trialing a new technology, they know their copper NBN is not going to be good enough for the future, so they are now trialing something called fibre to the distribution point or an easy way to understand that is fibre to the driveway,” he said.

“They are trialing this now, I suspect before the next election, they will announce they are going to ditch their copper NBN and roll out fibre to the driveway instead and when they do, remember this point: it will be proof that Malcolm Turnbull got it wrong on the NBN.”

Currently, the FTTN model used by the NBN is seeing the company extend fibre from Telstra’s telephone exchanges to neighbourhood ‘nodes’ on street corners, instead of all the way to Australian houses and business premises, as under the Labor model.

If Clare’s prediction is accurate, it would mean the company would instead extend that fibre all the way to the curbside for premises, using copper cables to reach the final few metres into premises themselves.

The NBN company revealed in late October that it was trialling this technology. At the time, it told a number of media outlets such as The Australian newspaper and ZDNet that it had used the FTTdp model coupled with the G.Fast standard to achieve laboratory trial speeds of 967Mbps on a 20m copper loop length and 800Mbps on a 100m copper loop length.

The company also trialled the technology in a real-world setting, where copper cables ran 100m from the basement to the fifth floor of an apartment block in Carlton, Melbourne. The apartment tested was able to reach speeds of 522Mbps down and 78Mbps up during the trial. It believes that it can achieve even higher speeds with further advancements.

If the NBN company does go ahead with a FTTdp model, it will represent a significant change of policy from the Federal Government. The Coalition — stimulated by Turnbull in the Communications portfolio — has been focused on the FTTN model since Turnbull was appointed Shadow Communications Minister in September 2010.

It would also bring the Labor and Coalition NBN models much closer together. Labor has not yet released its formal NBN policy for the 2016 election, but if the NBN company does formally announce a widespread FTTdp model, it would mean that both parties would likely support a mostly fibre-based NBN model, along with support for reusing the HFC cable networks the NBN company is buying from Telstra and Optus, and satellite and fixed wireless technologies in rural and regional areas.

The FTTdp model would also support a long-term migration to the technically superior Fibre to the Premises model.

Image credit: Parliamentary Broadcasting

147 COMMENTS

  1. I was reading some articles about FTTdp a week or so ago and wondered why there hadn’t been more of a focus on it as it seemed a nice fit between the mess that is MTM and the apparently unaffordable FTTH.

    It seems strange that Claire would announce it as a possibility for the Coalition to take up instead of claiming it as a policy direction for the Labour Party.

    From what I’ve read I like and would be more than happy to see the NBN transition to FTTdp.

    • For the record I am aware that Delimiter ran an article or two about FTTdp but that was some time ago I believe.

    • Note that “apparently unaffordable” is only according to the LNP and perhaps a couple of incumbent telcos around the world, but not the actual view of experts in the field – mainly because eliminating the copper massively reduces maintenance cost and full fibre uses less electricity (only using half the power per subscriber compared to FTTN in one study I read).

      FTTdp does solve quite a few problems that FTTN has, and actually has a workable migration path to full fibre, which is nice – but the copper is still going to be the weakest link and a source of additional operational expenditure.

      • I agree on both points.

        It seems fairly certain now that Labour can’t go back to a FTTH policy so I like this as the next best option. It may even give the Government of the day some options with upgrading to FTTH by offering incentives for home owners to do it themselves. It would certainly be cheaper to have fibre run over the shorter distances.

      • In 2007 Ovum did a report to the ACCC that stated 70-80% of the cost of FTTP was in civil works (digging the trenches, laying the fibre, etc).

        Given that Conroy did a deal with Telstra to get their pits and ducts, that would mean Project Fox was probably legit and the costs Malcolm attributed to FTTP are very misleading, if not an outright lie.

      • Haha.

        “Maintenance on the copper”.

        Yeah, because Telstra did a lot of that, and being that NBN co is now effectivly Telstra mk2, this is unlikely to change.

        There have also been a number of times where NBN co have talked about FTTdp as being FTTN, and would, in my mind, justify things like an overbuild of the Canberra Transact FTTN network.

        • If they were rolling out FTTdp it WOULD justify an overbuild of the Transact FTTN network, just not before everywhere else has decent internet access…

          But they’re not, they’re overbuilding FTTN with more FTTN, which is ridiculous.

    • “It seems strange that Claire would announce it as a possibility for the Coalition to take up instead of claiming it as a policy direction for the Labour Party.”

      I have to wonder if they announced it as their policy, if it would just make the Liberals more determined to NOT do it, just to continue to try to be the opposite of Labor as much as possible….

      • I have to wonder if they announced it as their policy, if it would just make the Liberals more determined to NOT do it

        Indeed. Can you imagine an alternate universe where Labor announced a FTTdp plan instead of FttP when they did. I’m sure they’d be arguing for more fixed wireless and call it OPEL2 (Extra Sour Lemon Version) in such a case.

      • The key wording is that he wants it to be known that if/when the change in direction is made it will show that MT was WRONG to proceed with FttN.
        It’s just a pre-emptive political swipe.
        It’s not as though he’s announced a revelation that no-one had previously considered as an option.

        For the record, I’m one of the sorry lot who
        a) didn’t vote for this mob
        b) will be lumped with FttN early next year, and thusly will drop to the bottom of the list for FttDP if the change is made.
        c) is hoping like hell that our connection speed (currently a decent 20+mbps ADSL about 450m from our tophat) isn’t halved when the FttN cabinet is switched on.

    • I think what Claire is doing is calling out this change in direction now so he can refer to it at election time.

      “They are trialing this now, I suspect before the next election, they will announce they are going to ditch their copper NBN and roll out fibre to the driveway instead and when they do, remember this point: it will be proof that Malcolm Turnbull got it wrong on the NBN.”

      They can use it as ammunition against Turnbull. Labor probably don’t want to lock into a policy just yet – there’s probably still some uncertainty about FTTdp. The are likely trying to get estimates on cost and time frames so they can figure out how to spin it leading up to the election – and if its worth while making a big deal about it.

      Another aspect is of course, if they change their policy to FTTdp, the coalition may call them out on it, citing it as proof that FTTP was a bad approach etc. So by Claire calling Turnbull out on FTTdp, is a safe shot at Turnbull, but also probing the waters to get an idea of whats going on. It also creates awareness that the technology exists and that its a potential viable alternative. Mainstream media might look into it more – maybe even produce a few articles asking why the coalition aren’t taking this approach etc.

      Ideally labor would want to switch to the policy first so if the coalition decide to switch, they can say they did it first. If they switch too soon and FTTdp is not all it was cracked up to be, or the coalition change to something else – perhaps even better (unlikely), they lose their advantage of the FTTP arguments they have been making and taking the coalition to task on. Claire’s early statements gets labor’s foot in the door, meaning if the coalition do switch before labor do, labor can at least say they called it.

      • “Labor probably don’t want to lock into a policy just yet – there’s probably still some uncertainty about FTTdp. ”

        The only uncertainty is how much more expensive the cost of putting a remote VDSL terminal, battery, and rugged waterproof housing on every line will be over just pulling fiber over the last 20m and having the customer pay for power.

        I expect “a lot more” will be the answer and “backflipping” will be the policy response.

  2. If the NBN company does go ahead with a FTTdp model, it will represent a significant change of policy from the Federal Government.

    Lets hope it does, FTTN is simply inappropriate technology for a modern 1st world nation to be rolling out in 2015.

    • We can only hope. Turnbull & Bishop are just too popular compared to Mr. Personality and whomever is his deputy is to be booted out next election. We usually get a change of government when the incumbent is so crap that enough people ‘switch teams’. It’s rare (2007 being a rare event) where the opposition wins due to higher popularity.

      Politics aside, FTTdp is actually a reasonable compromise and I’d be happy with that. It removes the extensive costs of the work required on private property – especially in established housing areas – and focuses on getting fibre as far as possible for the lowest cost of deployment. For those that want fibre the whole way, they can have it if they want to pay for it.

  3. I’ll wait until Turnbull says it… Well even if he did, would we still believe him?
    Pretty much just lied his way through everything before.
    Also if he does go to FTTdp will this have any consequences on the nbn staff currently who have spruiked FTTN up to be the biggest thing since sliced bread?

    • Also if he does go to FTTdp will this have any consequences on the nbn staff currently who have spruiked FTTN up to be the biggest thing since sliced bread?

      Yep, a pay rise for being loyal party hacks.

      • I don’t trust what they say. I’ll believe it if it’s rolled out. Actions speak louder than words.

    • If would believe Turnbull if he said he was going to do it. He would do it no matter what. Even if the timeline blows out more, massive cost overruns, what cost overruns it was all costed. He will be sure to hire the right consultants to write some reports showing it works no matter how much useful information showing it doesn’t has to be redacted for CiC purposes.

      MT will deliver on time and on budget just not the time and budget that wash promised prior to the election but the new one that will be determined after the whole thing is built.

  4. If coalition clowns did change to FTTdp it would be the ultimate admission that their FttN patchwork plan is a failure (just like we said it would and just as we predicted). An admission that faster speeds will be required (just like we said it would and just as we predicted). FTTdp might make transitioning to the FttP end goal easier (coalition clowns done their best to make it s hard as possible so far, they took two politically motivated steps backwards already) but unless there is a clear defined plan to do so any trials can only be regarded as GimpCo hype at this stage, just like their 5gbps cable modem blog posts.

    • and I’d assume the CEO of the NBN for making such bad decisions with tax payers money on a $3m contract would be stood down… Keep dreamin :)

    • @HC, they’ll just claim it’s yet more evidence of their MtM being technology agnostic.

      • Oh, of course Derek, gotta love their inevitable “technology agnostic” claims :-)

      • Ah yes and can you imagine the accompanying BS and the extra (yes even more than usual, if that’s possible) contradictory, triple somersaults, with quadruple rolls in a pike position… dribbling from gobs of the already contradictory hypocrite, usual suspect, copper throwback, ultra conservative minions, herein?

        I could just imagine it now… can’t wait…

        So to preemp, why don’t we just ask our friend, “the author” if Fttdp was part of his “I could have been commissioned to write it”, master plan.

        After all, he’d know… ROFL

    • I don’t really care about being vindicated or about the Liberals being proven wrong … I’d just be happy for them to make some sort of logical decision rather than a politically motivated one.

  5. What would happen with suburbs where the FTTN build is already underway or contracts are already signed?

    • They’ll be up s%#$ creek without a paddle I am sure.

      At least until the rest of the rollout was complete, then they might… maybe… possibly… go back and retrofit them to FTTdp.

      • retrofitting to FttdP from FttN would be truly retarded imho. Ultimate goal is fibre and instead of one idiotic substep we do two!?

        Just wait until Joe bob finds out his electricity bill is going to go up too.

        I’d be interested how they plan to manage this in the outer burbs or hobbiest area’s where distances between properties are sizable to say the least. Are they going to install a dP on someones porch (for when the driveway is longer than the 800m max for even FttN).

        • I agree, but if an area already has FTTN because of current contracts, and they do shift to FTTdp, there is no way in hell either party is going to go back and rebuild an entire area right away to FTTdp without first completing everything else.

          In regards to long driveways, that problem will come up whether they do FTTN or FTTdp.

          (I just realised what you meant… And yes, the ultimate goal is fibre so ideally they would upgrade the FTTN regions after to FTTP, then start doing the FTTdp areas to FTTP)

          • Given the current duplication of cabling, south brisbane, transact etc. replacing already “upgraded” infrastructure is exactly the sort of thing Malcolm’s mates would do.

    • That is because TPG are doing FttB in MDU’s which is essentially the same kind of deal just on a larger scale.

  6. Will be better than FTTN if they do it. Not FTTP but acceptable for the moment. And at least the cost of Fibre from the DP to the house should be at least “affordable” for a home user that wishes to upgrade.

    Bloody stupid though. If they are rolling fibre to the pit, just do the lot and roll it to the house.

    • I think the argument for FTTdp is that the larger portion of the FTTP rollout is the lead-in to the house, not to mention being disruptive to get everything installed (requiring people to be home to do the final install inside) where with FTTdp using either VDSL or G.Fast all they need is new hardware that can be provided by the RSP.

      And is surely more what customers are used to with their current ADSL connection.

      • The argument is that FTTdp still saves around $1,500 per premises cost of replacing the the lead-in with fibre. At least FTTdp + VDSL2 will provide

        up to 250mbps
        genuine FoD
        a real FTTP upgrade path

        • Thanks for the actual figures Derek, I thought I was right just didn’t want to be so definitive in case I was wrong ;-)

          So, if the figures of $3,700 per premises for FTTP are accurate, saving $1500 puts it at $2200 per premises compared to $1600 for FTTN, so $600 more per premises for a vastly superior network…

          It makes you wonder how it will be argued away……

          • They also show a CPP of $2100 for FTTN, interesting because we keep getting told by Reality that its $1600 ;-)

          • Alain wouldn’t know what reality was even if it was the name of a rapid dog biting him on the a$$.

          • I think those figures acording to whirlpool includes some of the $700 pit lease as well as the possible OPEX could include some of it too.

          • Jason that is why I call them fraudulent because no-one else on earth includes an opex number in a capex cpp.

          • “Alain wouldn’t know what reality was even if it was the name of a rapid dog biting him on the a$$.”

            That’s a bit harsh Derek…

            I know for a fact he clearly understands the reality of the Coalition winning the last election…

            And really, it’s quite clear that that’s all that matters eh?

            ;)

          • @Woolfe those numbers are based on the draw down costs at the end of an extended contract as well so the H numbers should drop quite a bit if say the rollout was accelerating :/

            Even with dP the numbers don’t stack up as to why we just don’t do it properly the first time around.

          • @Simon M
            Oh I know, I know. It doesn’t make any sense to me either.

            I personally strongly doubt that the price per premise for FTTdp will not change for the worse either at this stage. I simply can’t trust any of the figures bandied about by the current government until they have been set in stone through actions and audits.

          • Woolfe,

            “I simply can’t trust any of the figures bandied about by the current government until they have been set in stone through actions and audits.”

            But the figures in the Quigley PDF doesn’t require any of that I assume?

          • And more hypocrisy, alain…

            …says he who totally rejected the first CP out of hand, err, umm, because it was full of nothing but “estimations” *sigh*… but now uses the estimated figures from CP16, almost daily, as if gospel.

            You’re welcome

          • There are no CPP figures for FTTdp in the CP 16 because it is not yet Coalition NBN policy, it is Labor guessing at what they would like Coalition policy to be, obviously a completely different policy of their own has been shoved in the too hard basket.

            The nearest we can get is FTTdp CPP figures IF the Optus HFC requires a infrastructure overbuild, but FTTdp is ONE of many either partial or total overbuild options.
            The cheapest option to overbuild the Optus HFC is just to extend the Telstra HFC.

            In the meantime despairing ‘Back to 2013 Fibre’ fans grasping for any sign from above have decided to make the figures up, and hey MAGIC FTTdP is justified because the armchair NBN Co with a blatantly biased FTTP agenda say so.

          • Reality
            Is that like your made up useing HFC in the pre election policy.

            Can you name any country ISP offering a min 25Mbps or 50Mbps. As the NBN isn’t doing what Trunbull SOE states which is deliver “at least 25Mbps”

            You claim other countries FTTN plans are cheaper than FTTP. So why are FTTN plan cost the same as FTTP from NBN.

          • R0ninX3ph,

            “They also show a CPP of $2100 for FTTN, interesting because we keep getting told by Reality that its $1600 ;-)”

            The CPP of $1600 for FTTN is from the officially released NBN Co CP 16, it’s interesting you and others prefer a leaked document headed DRAFT, it’s in the top right hand corner in Bold and underlined in case you blinked and missed it, and it is just modelling scenarios for Optus HFC overbuilds, which may not even happen anyway.

            In case you don’t know what a Draft document is it means it is not a official release and subject to change.

            Keep plugging away you will kick a goal eventually.

          • @Reality, it is interesting which posts you reply to.

            If/When they release new figures, if they are indeed $2100 CPP for FTTN, you will happily ignore the fact that you ever mentioned that was “Just a draft”.

            I will happily admit it was a draft, it isn’t the official figures, but I have no reason to believe anything. We’ve already had the “$29Bn 25mbit to all by 2016” lies, we’ve had the SR costings, and now the CP 16 costings with “up to $56bn” for the MTM, I am seeing a pattern, and it is the price only rising for the MTM.

            So…. Why, when seeing the evidence for the past 2 years from the LNP that their costings keep increasing, should I believe the current price they tell me? When one of their own draft documents for overbuilding the Optus HFC area has it at $500 more than their official costs from the current fabled “document to end all documents”?

            Only a fool would not hold a Government to account and believe what they say verbatim. (Before you claim I believed everything Labor said about FTTP, you had better find some evidence of that before making extraordinary claims)

          • @ alain,

            “There are no CPP figures for FTTdp in the CP 16 because it is not yet Coalition NBN policy…”

            And just you remember that when you try to claim Fttdp is just FttN anyway, and as they planned, which, I’m guessing is inevitable from you, should fttdp ever actually occur from this gov…

            No I agree, it’s not their policy (wow you actually got something right – kudos).

            So remembering that you screamed blue murder about the last mob altering their policy, and said it was totally unacceptable and the lowest of low, I’m sure no matter how many “more” alterations, backflips or pre-election broken promises occur from the current government, they will be not only forgiven (as they all have so far) but welcomed by oleaginous alain…

            There’s that magic word again ‘begins with h and ends with ypocrite.

          • @Reality

            You did see my comment RE “Set in stone through actions and audit”.
            In case you don’t understand, that is the KEY element.

            Because of the many assumptions made by the Current government, which have now been proven incorrect by the actual real life activity and costs. I have no reason to trust their figures and analysis until such time as they have been proven.

            As opposed to Quigley’s NBNco’s assumptions. Invariably they have been proven correct, indeed as time goes on, we are seeing that not only are they correct but in many cases they were conservative in the potential positives from those assumptions.

            So do I trust the Current Government who have proven to be wrong time and again? Or Quigley, who has been proven to be correct time and again.

            In case you aren’t sure, YES I trust Quigley’s analysis of the figures, more than I trust the governments analysis of anything NBN related

  7. In areas where there are power poles they are now stringing the fiber on the poles , then to the house from the pole so why would you use the copper.
    Now the other question is how much is it costing to rent this space on the poles?
    Or does this come with the HFC?

  8. So if the Coalition does decide to deploy more of a FTTdp model, and Labor announces virtually the same as their policy and it keeps the Coalition HFC and FTTB models, the punters will think what’s the real difference between the two parties NBN policy?

    Risky strategy for Labor I would have thought.

  9. Bear with me, if you are going to have FTTdp you need a pit (box of sorts) outside on the footpath for every house and in that box you have a modem (fibre-digital to copper-analogue) which requires power and at the end of the copper where your computer is you need another modem (copper-analogue to digital-computer). Wouldn’t it be easier just to run fibre into the house and have a box on the wall.

    • No Mike, the micro nodes fit inside the pit and can be reverse powered by the customers modem or remotely powered from the exchange.

  10. I am prepared to pay whatever it costs to AVOID TELEPHONE LINES. They CAN’T UNDO BUYING ALL THAT COPPER THOUGH. JAIL THE CRIMINALS THIEVING OUR MONEY.

    • It real funny is that we get the copper at the cost of remediation of the pits and ducts and Telstra get the gravy train of duct rental from NBN and they don’t have to look after them.

  11. This could be the happy medium we need. FTTN is already old had technology. FTTP in brown fields does add extra time and cost to get the fibres on to the premises and then there are plenty of stories of unhappy customers where installers have done a bad or lazy job.

    • Nope. The Happy Medium was FTTP. This … This is a stopgap measure because the current measure FTTN is going to make them look bad when they need to pay a shedload to update to FTTP later down the track.

      • The cynic in me suggests that they’ve found yet ANOTHER way to keep contracts flowing by introducing another unnecessary step in between FTTN and the end goal of FTTP.

    • MT has always been technology agnostic

      Technology agnostic weasel line used by those who don’t understand the meaning of the phrase. Turnbull is no exception.

        • How are the copper zealots going after all the evidence of a $26B blowout from the fully cost pre election plan and a 7 year blowout from 3 years in just 2 years without building there copper network.

          • Shhhh… Its going to be perfectly smooth sailing from here on out… There wont at all be anymore unforeseen delays with the FTTN rollout at ALL….

            Everything is going to go perfectly, because it isn’t Labor doing the rollout, because Conroy and Quigley are the reasons for the delays under the NBN Mk2 plan, not at all the contractors, or the Telstra deal… or you know.. literally anything else, just Conroy and Quigley, so… because they’re not involved now, it will just be pure perfection.

          • Indeed Jason…

            Like religious lunatics, the MTM lunatics, have all of the evidence right in front of them, staring them in the face and disproving them, if they choose to want to see it… but they simply choose not to and overlook facts and accept, their faith…

            And we are zealots according to such people… ROFL.

          • @R0ninX3ph

            Shhhh… Its going to be perfectly smooth sailing from here on out… There wont at all be anymore unforeseen delays with the FTTN rollout at ALL….

            Should we call him Baghdad Reality, or Reality Ali??? :)

        • Zealots, being religious, don’t understand the concept of being non-religious

          Indeed. When it comes to copper zealots they don’t understand many concepts. Exactly why we end up with poorly thought out communication infrastructure policies (hint: MTM patchwork) that rely on degrading copper (it’s their holy grail, you cant diss it) rather than taking an actual “technology agnostic” approach that has future speed requirements and goals in mind.

    • yes technology agnostic of not being able to deliver the speeds claimed but then charge the same price as FTTP.

    • @ Mr Shark

      “This is very welcome, as it offers hope the NBN review will be evidence-based rather than a political witch hunt.”

      This said after Mal sacked (sorry demanded they resign) the board and replaced them with yes men?

      Riiiight. So how completely wrong was that comment.

      Ignoring reality you say?

      What you’ve been asleep since this article two years ago. Not seen the $15B cost blow out, missing their 2016 by a mere 4 years etc… seems someone is ignoring reality. With every blow out in cost it makes anything but FttP more and more illogical.

      Sorry I didn’t read much passed that point, considering that was Sept 2013, and everything since then has been even more politically motivated and completely mismanaged.

    • The only Zealotry I see is amongst those who are anti-FTTP.

      The MTM is failing on many counts. In fact the only parts doing well, are those from the original plan.

      And yet, you still insist on jumping on and calling us Zealots. Despite the fact that the evidence supports the arguments that we made for FTTP.

      • Exactly right Woolfe!

        There’s a rather good article on Aunty covering TurnCoats NBN failures:

        http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-10/manning-the-turnbull-ascendancy-part-iv/7008318

        If his mixed-technology version of the NBN had proved cheaper, and arrived sooner, then Turnbull’s policy would have been vindicated and he could point to a lasting legacy. But it hasn’t. While there is no way of knowing what Labor’s NBN would have cost had the Coalition not been elected, Turnbull’s NBN has failed on its own criteria.

        On its own terms, the Coalition’s NBN has blown out twice, from its promised $29.5 billion to $41 billion, within weeks of taking office, and up to $56 billion in August, when the company released its corporate plan for 2016.

        The Coalition’s deadlines have also been missed, to the point where Turnbull’s NBN is barely arriving any sooner – perhaps a year – than when Labor expected to finish its all-fibre network. And the bad news keeps coming: a fortnight ago, leaked documents confirmed the HFC network NBN bought from Optus was “not fully fit for purpose” and more money would need to be spent upgrading it, adding delay. A second leak last week revealed the cost of remediating the Telstra copper network had been underestimated by ten times.

        Turnbull’s NBN was based on a false economy. Nobody would argue in favour of installing a second-rate mixed-technology network that cost about the same as an all-fibre network, took about the same time to roll out, and will need to be upgraded again as future demand increases.

    • Our best hope is for MT to *demonstrate* his technology agnosticism by switching, if it’s so easy. We invite him.

  12. Interesting Clare is offering advice on what the Coalition will do while remaining silent on what Labor is going to do.

    What he needs to state is Labor will not consider FTTdp, stop HFC activations and the planned upgrade to DOCSIS 3.1 and retrofit any FTTN with FTTP.

    • Labor arent in power are they Alain????

      Seriously, why would labor say no to FTTdp, frankly your comments are getting more and more stupid by the day!

    • Turnbull needs all the help he can get consider his researched fully costed plan has blown out by $26B and from 3 years to 7 years.

    • Again with the “Until Labor announce their policy, they aren’t allowed to complain or comment about the current Liberal policy”

      Tell me again when the Liberals announced their policy, and remind me… Did they suddenly just start complaining when they announced their policy? Oh… they didn’t?

      What’s good for the goose isn’t apparently good for the gander.

      • Indeed, the continual unbelievable hypocrisy in commenting from our dear friend, in complete give no quarter fashion, in regards to expectation of the previous roll out/ gov. and then the completely opposite forgiving (even fawning, with absolute obsequiousness) non-expectation in relation to the very same issues/aspects, per this roll out/gov. is as sickening (if not more so) than the accompanying, contradictions, lies and argumentative childishness, IMO…

      • I demand to know what the Fishing Party is going to do with the nbn!!
        FTTP – Fish to the Premises
        Wait they aren’t in power either…

        • Obviously the Pirate Party intends to flood all the streets and use STTP (Ship to the Premises). Better hope the wind is favourable so that you get better speeds!

          • Obviously the FTTP fans are happy Labor remains silent about what their 2016 plan is for long as possible, because they can see FTTP slipping away and maybe not even be resurrected beyond greenfields FTTP by Labor.

            The delicious irony is that if Labor embrace the Coalition HFC and FTTB and dilute most of their brownfields FTTP plans to FTTdp the policy differentiation is lost, electors will think it’s all virtually a same as.

            That plays into the Coalitions hands more than it does Labor.

          • And as usual all you are interested in is what’s best for the Coalition.

            Whereas we want the best comms outcome for Australia and Australian’s.

            Thanks for again displaying your blind motive for being here.

            You’re welcome

          • Yes, “Obviously”, Answer the god damn question…

            Why was it okay for the LNP to sit and complain for years about the NBN without releasing on bit of their policy, but Labor isn’t allowed to do the same?

            Stop with the hypocrisy you ridiculous Libtroll.

            At this point, whoever the next Government is, they just have to get on with constructing the damn network, we don’t need more delays, we don’t need more multiple year reviews and more trials.

            So, if Labor adopt FTTdp and keep the FTTB and HFC portions to upgrade later? How is that playing into the Coalitions hands? They are doing what HAS to be done for Australia instead of handpicking cronies to pay them millions for “independent” reviews.

            I will copy and paste my other reply from above which I am sure you will ignore once again…

            “Again with the “Until Labor announce their policy, they aren’t allowed to complain or comment about the current Liberal policy”

            Tell me again when the Liberals announced their policy, and remind me… Did they suddenly just start complaining when they announced their policy? Oh… they didn’t?

            What’s good for the goose isn’t apparently good for the gander.”

    • @Reality, also it is interesting you would post yet ANOTHER new comment on this article, without once even replying to the previous comments on your other comment on this article…

      Or without replying to similar replies on other articles….

      You wonder why I call you a Libtroll? It is crap like this. At least have the bollocks to man up and reply to people when they call you out on your crap.

  13. Dear NBN: If you’re going to bring fibre to the end of my driveway, just spend the extra to bring it all the way inside my house!

  14. Mr Turnbull’s biggest turkey, or “lemon” is his bizarre “Turnbullstein NBN” where he is attempting to breathe life into a bunch of long dead technologies to produce a workable high speed broadband system.
    Now installing “New Copper” to resuscitate Telstra’s decaying infrastructure at a minimum cost of nearly a billion dollars and a similar bill for HCF infrastructure. It’s reminiscent of Howardstein’s plan to resuscitate a bunch of 30-year-old helicopters lying dead in US junkyards attempting to produce a modern helicopter “on the cheap”. It didn’t work, a billion dollars was thrown down the sewer nothing ever flew. 16 brand new Sea Hawks or MH90’s could have been bought with that billion dollars.
    His “innovative” NBN plan has fallen into disarray only a handful of fibre to the Node installations have been connected in “trials” and HCF is unable to proceed until extensive new equipment installed and cable remediation takes place at an open ended cost.
    The only NBN equipment installed in the 2 years and 3 months of his administration of the NBN is the Fibre to the Home, Satellite and Wireless equipment ordered by the previous Government. Turnbullstein has effectively achieved nothing, except pile up a bunch of doctored studies done by political cronies, installed tainted and proven failures in the field of telecommunications administration into NBN Co.
    I will remind readers that Mr Turnbull and Mr Abbott promised that by the election in 2016 he would connect 90% of Australian Households with FTTN at a speed of 25/5mbps, it was to be Quicker, Faster, Cheaper and Less Expensive. It was ready to roll the day he assumed office.
    The reality is, nothing has been installed in 2 years and 3 months of Mr Turnbull’s administration. The Turnbullstein NBN is now approaching the cost of the original Technologically Advanced Fibre to the Home NBN commenced by the previous Government.
    New Zealand is now installing Fibre to the Home cheaper than Mr Turnbull is now promising to install HCF and Fibre to the Node.
    He has saddled Australians not only with the cost of repairing decaying infrastructure to allow his cheaper more expensive build, the sunk cost of all the equipment and engineering costs to build the Turnbullstein resurrection of dead technologies. He’s again saddled us with the costs of replacing all this stuff with Fibre to Home when it’s obsolete, probably before his plans are complete.
    Mr Turnbull has lied to the Australian people about his Broadband plans, his approach has revealed he can’t even manage one project with any level of competence, probably because he was applying all his energies to the politics of leadership.

    • Kevin Cobley,

      “New Zealand is now installing Fibre to the Home cheaper than Mr Turnbull is now promising to install HCF and Fibre to the Node.”

      The NZ rollout is about the equivalent of rolling out FTTP to 75% of the population of Melbourne with about the same area as Victoria.

      The comparative figures are absent Kevin (they always are), so how much cheaper is the NZ Chorus rollout than FTTN and HFC?

      • “The NZ rollout is about the equivalent of rolling out FTTP to 75% of the population of Melbourne with about the same area as Victoria.”

        But all that means is the total cost will be less because of the size of the rollout, the CPP is what matters…

        New Zealanders don’t live in English style townhouses, they live in similar sized properties to Australians. Thus, distances between premises are similar, meaning you CAN compare, because the areas getting FTTP in Australia are largely urbanised, and similar in rollout style, regardless of the size.

        Hello again Mr. Libtroll, when are you going to reply to the other comments above replying to you? Or perhaps the comments on other articles replying to you?

        • The comparative figures are absent (Kevin) R0ninX3ph (they always are), so how much cheaper is the NZ Chorus rollout than FTTN and HFC?”

          • @R0ninX3ph

            You realise that now you’ve post some facts he’ll just ignore the post, right?

          • @Tinman,

            I am well aware, he has already ignored multiple.

            What is one more that falls outside of his delusion field?

          • It’s not that he ignored it. It’s just that when facts are presented that he can’t spin any other way. He can’t come back with anything.

          • R0ninX3ph,0

            You left out this figure from your link.

            “What this means is that Chorus is now installing FTTP for an average cost of $NZ3,467 and this cost is expected to continue to fall to an average of around $NZ3,200 over the next two years.”

          • @Reality, I intentionally left it out to see if it would bait you to actually reply.

            Since you keep ignoring other replies to your comments, I have to think of ways to get you to comment.

            You might even say that… the $1700NZ which is the Cost Per Premises Passed might even be akin to running fibre down the streets to the distribution points….. You know… almost like what FTTdp might look like…

          • Rizz,

            The point is made thanks.

            R0ninX3ph,

            “@Reality, I intentionally left it out to see if it would bait you to actually reply. ”

            Oh I see, you ‘intentionally left it out’, hey I believe you, really I do.

            :)

          • @Reality,

            I don’t really care whether you believe me or not, I too can read an article and comprehend how it works, you can choose to think I am the one lying.

            But I’m not the one who keeps avoiding one question I have asked twice so far…

            “Again with the “Until Labor announce their policy, they aren’t allowed to complain or comment about the current Liberal policy”

            Tell me again when the Liberals announced their policy, and remind me… Did they suddenly just start complaining when they announced their policy? Oh… they didn’t?

            What’s good for the goose isn’t apparently good for the gander.”

          • Oh I see, yes the new HSV is more expensive than the rusty ’89 Commodore…. the same, well duh argument, you are using over and over since contradicting all of the other equally pointless arguments.

            Yes of course…

            Unfortunately however, your precious Coalition are so inept, that they actually are somehow even proving the bleedin’ obvious wrong and with the upgrades, replacements, paint job, new tyres, additional maintenance, etc…

            The HSV is looking cheaper by the day… and is obviously (something you can’t quite grasp) vastly superior.

            At what point would any rational person say, fuck it new HSV it is? Just stick your head out the door and see if you can find a rational person there to tell you…what we all already know.

            You’re welcome.

          • @Rizz

            The whole car analogy is a non sequitur, and in fact irrelevant. The job of a network is to move things (packets), a HSV or a plain old commodore both move the same amount. This is why Reality prefers the car analogy, it fits his preferred agenda.

            A better, and much better aligned, analogy is trucks.

            FTTN is a Hilux, FTTP is a Mack.

            The Hilux is cheaper, but it can’t move as much, while the Mack is more expensive, but hey, look at how much more it can move.

          • @ Tinman

            No sequitur may have been a bit harsh, but your analogy is indeed more apt, kudos.

            I do believe however, you need to clarify that it’s a rusty old Hilux with a new donk and a paint job though.

            Perhaps we could refer to it as FRAUDLUX

            :)

        • Did the imbecilic childishness just continue, with alain suggesting R0nin is Kevin…?

          • I didn’t notice that… but perhaps he did.

            Gotta love his obsession that he thinks everyone is the sock-puppet of someone else…

            It must be a very sad life to be so full of fear about the future, that you’re literally afraid of your own shadow.

      • And yet another contradiction and more blatant hypocrisy alain – right on cue, thank you…

        … says he who uses UK, also about the size of Vic but with 3 x the entire population of Australia, to talk up passed/connected, to his beloved FttN/FRAUDBAND.

        You’re welcome.

      • “The NZ rollout is about the equivalent of rolling out FTTP to 75% of the population of Melbourne with about the same area as Victoria.”

        Umm…doesn’t that mean they wouldn’t have the economy of scale Australia could get from much larger purchases?

        Your comment actually works against your point I hope you realise?

  15. FTTdp actually doesn’t sound too bad. It’s not as good as FTTP but it’s a reasonable compromise given the constraints (mostly the ridiculous political constraints of an obstinate government, but nevermind). There’s also a clear upgrade path from FTTdp to FTTP.

    This is definitely better than FTTN or HFC. If FTTP isn’t going to happen – and politically it won’t – then FTTdp doesn’t stink too much.

    I’d like to know how they intend to power the FTTdp distribution points. It will only be 5W per household, same as a fibre-to-copper transceiver. Possibly leeching power over the wire from the household? Similar to Cisco’s PoE Passthrough where an edge switch is itself powered by PoE. Or for aerial installations you could simply pull a combi-cable with fibre for data and low-voltage copper powering the distribution point.

    • AFAIK FTTdp can be reverse powered, so yes, it would likely draw a slight drain from the premises connected to it, but it would hardly be noticed by the customer (and they could in theory just reduce the cost to the consumer by how much the drain would cost them).

    • I’m wondering where this suggestion comes from?
      “using copper cables to reach the final few metres into premises themselves.”
      Would you not just have the ISP the user selects run in a proper fibre lead in cable to get FTTP?

      • Here the thing, FTTdp actually does allow for affordable fibre on demand. It’d likely be around the $2k Mark vs tens of thousands under FTTN.

        • Personally, I dont think it will get anywhere near that price Derek. Think of it this way. FTTdp terminates in the nearest Telstra pit, which is where they connect your phone line from. Wouldnt the process broadly be the same as that new phone line?

          Parts arent that much different in cost for the distance, with the key cost being labour, so I’d expect the cost to the homeowner to be more in the range of $300-$400, roughly what Teltra charges now for a new line.

          Certainly not a couple of grand.

          • Hi Gav, I’m being pessimistic, it could be a lot cheaper than $2k – nbn claims its about $1,600 per premises for brownfields FTTP lead-ins atm.

            PS Telstra charge about $600 iirc if there is no in home PSTN wiring.

          • Coming back in late, if you’re still following :)

            Probably is up around $600 these days, wouldnt surprise me. I’m going off what it cost about 8 years ago when I needed to get my place wired up.

            End of the day though, thats a quite acceptable cost to the homeowner to upgrade that last stretch as far as I’m concerned, and its something that would shut everyone up once and for all.

            Dont even need to redo a plan, just recycle the rollout plan for Labor and drop the personalised touch at the end.

          • Verizon FIOS are paying $550USD all inclusive of labour and router, vs $1900 the Australian goverment is estimating.

      • I think FTTdp is pretty sensible; it saves on the node cabinets which are a horrible idea on a number of fronts and gets the fibre as close to premises as is cost effectively possible.

        If the speeds can go as high as 800-900Mbps then I can’t see an awful lot of people shelling out a couple of grand to get the fibre trenched from the driveway into the premises (which is probably the most expensive part of the deployment anyway given it’s all on private land).

        • I personally probably wouldn’t bother either, until such time as those speeds aren’t required.

          Though, it is important to remember that G.Fast speeds reported like that are often the aggregate speed of down and upstream.

          Either way though, G.Fast over short copper loops is good, and I am really unsure why FTTdp wasn’t even considered in the first place if the LNP were so obsessed with reusing the copper…. Even VDSL with FTTdp is infinitely better than VDSL with FTTN.

  16. Those speeds quoted sound amazing but remember you won’t get them without paying a high price, and you won’t get them at all when there are bottlenecks along the way. Kinda like driving a Ferrari stuck behind a push bike.

  17. Bloody hell! At this rate we’ll never have a completed NBN. Make up your damn mind and do it right. I bet you anything they will use this as leverage in the next election.

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