iHype: Welcome to the iPhone 5 hypno-orgy

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blog Your writer has been witness to some huge Apple hype over the years. The release of the original iPhone, the release of the MacBook Air, the release of the iPad. The list goes on: Every time there’s a SteveNote (would that be a CookNote, now?), millions of Apple fanboys take to millions of tiny blogs to vent their excitement all over the Internet in a glorious dripping mess of fulfilled gadget lust.

But historical Apple launches pale in comparison to the astronomical level of iHype out there associated with the (apparent) imminent release of Apple’s new smartphone opus, the iPhone 5. The new iPhone is expected to debut with a slew of new features already found in top-level Android devices, ranging from a larger screen to an in-built NFC chip. However, according to Australian comparison site WhistleOut, it doesn’t even matter what the new features are. The iPhone 5 is already a “success”, apparently, before it has even been launched. The site writes:

“… it won’t matter what how big the changes and innovations are. That’s not really the point. The phone is going to be a crazy, Ben Hur size success and you need to look backwards rather than forward to see why … In a marketing sense, it is not what Apple will do next that we should be talking about. It is what it has already done that counts.”

“In guaranteeing the iPhone’s future success in this next release, it is the fulfilment of our previous expectations that’s the kicker … Delivering products that actually deliver on the preceding media hype is a feat many businesses, designers and marketers fail to do. This delivery has meant that future success in this iPhone is assured.”

That’s right. If you believe WhistleOut, the actual new features and improvements in the iPhone 5 don’t matter one jot. What matters is that Apple delivers something called an iPhone. When it does, no matter what the device actually is or does, millions of people will simply buy it and be happy with it, in a massive world-wide consumer orgy of gigantic proportions which the Hypno-Toad would be proud of. Wow. This is truly a powerful reality distortion field at work.

The insanity is perhaps largest in the US, where analysts are falling over themselves to try and predict the implications of the iPhone 5’s launch before it even happens. J.P. Morgan’s chief economist Michael Feroli is so excited about the launch that he believes it could significantly affect the country’s Gross Domestic Product. The Vancouver Sun reports:

“J.P. Morgan’s analysts expect Apple to sell around 8 million iPhone 5s in the fourth quarter. They expect the sales price to be about $600. Feroli said the estimate of between a quarter to a half point of annualised GDP “seems fairly large, and for that reason should be treated skeptically.” But, he added, “we think the recent evidence is consistent with this projection.”

Feroli said that when the last iPhone was launched in October 2011, sales significantly outperformed expectations. “Given the iPhone 5 launch is expected to be much larger, we think the estimate mentioned … is reasonable,” Feroli wrote.”

“Reasonable”? Right. I’d love to be smoking the stuff they are apparently selling at J.P. Morgan’s cafetaria, because I suspect it’s the kind which leads you to be fascinated by the glowing bright colours and tracer effects inherent in your wallpaper. How can you possibly predict what the impact will be of a product which hasn’t even launched yet, in an intensely competitive market which changes month by month?

Now, sure, there’s a lot to be hyped about. Apple’s iPhone did revolutionise the mobile phone market and introduce a radical new user interface which everyone and his Android dog are now attempting to copy. And Apple has a steady history over Steve Jobs’ decade-long reign of glory of continually making greater and greater revenues from its ongoing successful product launches.

But isn’t it just a little bit possible that some people are getting a little overexcited here? Isn’t it just the teeniest bit ridiculous to claim that a new product’s features just don’t matter and that people will buy it regardless? Or to claim that that single product — which, I repeat, has not yet been released or detailed in any way — will drive enough revenue to boost the GDP of the whole US economy?

Despite the fact that I recent ditched my iPhone for an Android (yes, I know, I’m a filthy traitor who doesn’t deserve to own an iPhone, or in fact any of Apple’s miraculous products), I, for one, want to see the new iPhone first before I make a judgement on it. I want to play with it, examine its feature list, and compare it against competing products. I want to read reviews, write my own, and find out if the new model is going to be a cornucopia of delights, as most of the iPhone line in general has been so far, or just a minor upgrade that isn’t really worth investing in.

And let’s not forget that even Apple has had its product flops, as a number of popular articles have pointed out over the years. Ranging from the doomed Lisa machine back in the 1980’s to the Apple TV, the PowerMac G4 Cube and more recently, the Ping social network and the grossly insensitive dumbing down of Final Cut Pro, not everything that Apple has touched has turned to gold. Some of Cupertino’s efforts have been unmitigated disasters, and although indications so far are good, we just don’t know quite where the iPhone 5 sits in this pantheon yet.

So please, Apple fanboys. Stop fogging the screen of my MacBook Air with your breathless exuberance and give Tim Cook and the rest of the Apple team a chance to explain why we should go into a frenzy over their new iThing, before pre-judging it a colossal “success”. We don’t yet know whether the new iPhone is a credit to its maker or a mismatched failure which will be outshone by other excellent handsets from Samsung, HTC and Nokia. We just don’t yet know.

Image credit: Apple

34 COMMENTS

  1. I thinks it’s more the media than the public that are going crazy over the iphone5 at the moment.

  2. “I, for one, want to see the new iPhone first before I make a judgement on it. I want to play with it, examine its feature list, and compare it against competing products.” and that Renai is why we love and respect Delimiter and yourself.

    It’s damn refreshing.

  3. I’m with Mark…. Its the media that is saying its the best thing since sliced bread and the old iphone…. No one has used it, no one knows the pricing or features. Its all just guess work.

    The media needs to stop chasing page views by publishing crap like this about Apple. Apple loves it, the media creates the buzz for free for apple!

  4. As a large company, it must be great to be able to outsource your entire marketing department to the media, for free.

  5. I’ve unsubscribed from multiple tech blogs this week for the iPhone 5 posts.

    If I read another “10 things the iPhone 5 MIGHT have on it” style post….

    The click bait is sickening.

    • “I’ve unsubscribed from multiple tech blogs this week for the iPhone 5 posts.”

      That is pretty much what I have done as well. It’s the endless speculation without evidence that shits me.

  6. I always wonder at the value of the media’s free advertising for Apple – frankly it must be enormous. It’s especially strange seeing how little Apple offer in return. Their reticence to answer questions is surely famous by now.

    • It’s especially staggering when you consider that Apple doesn’t actually do much advertising itself in the media — they very rarely pay for ads on tech sites etc. Essentially, they get a huge amount of free publicity simply by virtue of the fact that the media thinks they will get a lot of page impressions simply by writing stories about Apple. Sometimes they’re right, but Apple stories don’t always get the traffic that people think they do.

      • No Renai …. you’ve published an iArticle ….. you’re in the reality distortion field …… ;-)

        In all seriousness though, even Job’s biographer called it a reality distortion field. It seems that while Steve was not immortal, he’s left some DNA of his at every breathless media overhype outlet across the planet.

        I’m all for gadget lust, but this is approaching Caligula in it’s excess.

  7. Given the number of comments here already… seems we like reading and posting about apple here too :P

    All obey the hypno-toad!

  8. You have to remember that this is a cellphone which are generally sold under contract
    and it will be better than the previous model so there is no hesitation to upgrade when it’s offered.
    Also people who have previously invested in an iPhone will stay with the platform.
    The same isn’t true within the Android community.

    • Yes, I got a cold call from Telstra yesterday, asking me if I was interested in the new iPhone 5.
      The thing that most upsets me about Apple is the fast turnover of product, and the implication that the current model (about to be dumped) is no longer any good.
      What’s going to happen to all the iPhone 4’s. What happened to all the iPad 1’s?
      Landfill, or complete recycling?

      • Friends and relatives. My old 3GS is now my GFs phone. There are still those that have the old nokia style phones and the old iPhones do all they need and more.

    • Oh Paul, such a ignorant Apple user. You clearly have NFI what you are talking about. To say “The same isn’t true within the Android community.” is a total lie.

      So why is the $100 you have spent on Apps via the Apple store, any different to the $100 an android user has spent via the play store? Both have made investments into the platform.

      Oh thats right, cause you use an Apple product, so you must be high and mighty than any android user. Stop listening the dribble that comes out of the Apple PR machine, yes the iPhone was a great product, but the only reason apple is getting the iLaywers out is that iOS has gone flat and they have been copying from android for a few releases. That pull down notification system? Stolen from android!

      Hell why don’t you TRY an android phone before you make wild comments like this!

      • @Level380 I’m just repeating studies that measure that most Android users don’t buy apps at anything like the rate iOS users do. And what I said about repeat customers is based in market research others have done.
        @Muso1 Fast turnover?? Commentators complain about how long it is between Apple device refreshes.
        And most iPhones can be updated to the latest version of iOS. How many Androids are running ICS? 15%
        From zdnet: “What Smith found was that across all iOS platforms it took only 15 days from release for iOS 5.1 to get to 61 percent, the same percentage of users as the most popular version of Android 2.3, ‘Gingerbread’. However, what’s more interesting is that in the same time frame the iOS adoption rate on iOS 5 and 5.0.1 devices that support OTA updates hit 77 percent. ” So recycling isn’t necessary as you can always update your iPhone to the latest version of iOS.

        • Unless you want SIRI, or the next software upgrade that apple wish to use as leverage to upgrade your phone.

    • Actually I believe Android users would be more likely to stick with the Android platform as they aren’t shackled to one phone manufacturer. If I buy $100 worth of Apple apps I must stick with an Apple phone (a very limited selection of phones). If I buy $100 of Android apps, I can stay with the same Handset Manufacturer (e.g. Samsung) or switch to another, e.g. HTC. Also I could buy a tablet from Samsung and a phone from HTC and be able to use the same apps on them both (assuming the apps support both phone and tablet configurations).

      Android gives you more choice. Thinking that Apple will be the leader in 5 or 10 years is dangerous, as technology moves very fast. Why limit yourself to just one manufacturer where you pay a premium and often get less features and an operating system that is much more restrictive (e.g. no flash, no alternative browsers that don’t use Apple’s browser technology) that limits innovation by software developers.

      Soon there will be standalone Android Cameras that will also be able to share apps with other devices. I’m sure there will be other types of devices coming in the future.

      Why limit oneself. I’ll also be interested to see the new Windows devices as at least they offer less Manufacturer lock-in.

  9. The same isn’t true within the Android community.

    are you part of the android community?

  10. I remember years ago just before the new Star Wars movie was about to be released someone said something like “it could be two hours of George Lucas sitting in a chair in his pyjamas and people will still watch it”. Congratulations iTards you now rank “up there” with the George Lucas fanboys.

  11. i maintain that if apple released the zune (hardware and software) instead of the ipod, it would be the dominant mp3 player. it’s all about the marketing….

  12. It’s very fair and reasonable of you not to pass judgment on the device before seeing what it has to offer, Renai.

    However, as someone as experienced as you would realise, there are a variety of reasons why expectations of success may precede any such announcement – whatever anticipation may be built up by certain media only feeds off the existing anticipation amongst the core user base, which these days is substantially larger than it used to be. Second, as with Windows on PCs, many people are simply more comfortable with what iOS has to offer, and whether they are recontracting or simply looking for something new, they’ll be likely to purchase the new iPhone even if it meets modest expectations. Finally, some people will buy one simply because it’s new / Apple / shiny / cool, no matter how silly a justification that may be. When you consider at least these three factors, you’re already looking at a substantial number of sales.

    It’s not our position to question why this anticipation exists – people will buy what people want to buy, whatever you think of how justified their reasoning for doing so it. Rather, it should be to consider whether the reported expectations are reasonable – given similar past performance and a substantial install base, it’s likely to do some pretty decent numbers despite whatever shortcomings it may have when compared spec for spec against competing devices.

  13. Apple has done an incredible job of marketing. The iPhone 5 is probably going to incorporate lots of stuff that Android phones already do, and people will go ape over it.

    I had an iPhone, found it too limiting, and switched. I don’t like the feeling that I’m supposed to pay Apple every time I turn my phone on, and their insistence that you can’t sell anything on their product without Apple’s 30% cut.

    • You missed the key piece here Stephen…… “…… and people will go ape over it, thinking its a world first!!”

      iphone users are ignorant when it comes to android. They want to feel like they are special and have the best device in the world, its a status symbol. When iOS released the new notifications system, I had iOS users tell me how great it was and that android would soon be coping it. I informed them that it was Apple that stole it from android and showed them my ‘version’. Which of course to an iOS user, wasn’t as good and must have been copied somehow, cause apple would NEVER do that….. /s

  14. Yup, thanks for the grounded post. I have no issue with apple products. They have innovated in stellar ways at times. This is not one of those times. And the tech media spend weeks posting crap about possible packaging. Ridiculous. Apple has peaked – most tech companies spend a decade on top, the first half is innovation, the second half defending its position. IPhone 5 is well, five years in. Right on time to start the legal battles and legacy issues. That’s a great story in its own right but no one will cover it, seemingly.

  15. With so much unjustified hatred and ignorance about iOS users in the comments here (and a somewhat negative vibe about Apple users in the article itself) I feel hesitant to post this out of fear of being flamed and having to answer a heap of angry replies. However I’m sick to death of Android fanatics labelling all iOS users as some kind of dumb “isheep” across the comments of every tech site in Australia, so I feel someone has to occasionally step up.

    To suggest that Apple users are all blind idiots that will buy anything with a lower case i in front of it, is a total fallacy. While I certainly agree that Apple has its fair share of crazy fans that need to reassess their priroties, the same can be same for many brands, and there are still a large amount of iOS users that are actually brand-agnsotic in general with our technology, but when it comes to mobile devices, some of us actually do currently prefer Apple hardware and the iOS experience. As hard as that might be to grasp for the Android users that think “my hardare and OS is so good, you’re an idiot if you’re not using it”. Different people have different needs and expectations of their hardware purchases and I try to respect that, rather than belittle people for their choices.

    Every brand and ecosystem also has its inherent strenghts and weaknesses which I’m completely aware of. Android unqeustionably has advantages over iOS by being open, offering a plethora of choice, and iOS unquestionably has advantages over Android from being closed, curated and being the sole manufacturer of it’s hardware (quality control and such tight product integration leap to mind). I love the simplicity of things like iCloud and Airplay, and yes I know that Android has DLNA and MHL, but coming from someone who has worked in home theatre for years, the experience isn’t even close to the integrated reliable airplay button, that appears next to all media content on my iPhone and iPad, that instantly throws the picture and/or sound to my AppleTV (which is actually now a jailbroken dedicated XBMC media box, streaming content from my desktop PC).

    I love to jailbreak to easily overcome Apple’s restrictions and add a range of tweaks that greatly enance my device’s functionality. In fact I jailbroke both my iPhone 4 and iPad2 within two hours of purchase of both of them, as I couldn’t wait to see what they could really do and add all my previously purchased tweaks (controlled by your Cydia account).

    Basically I enjoy the fact that I get access to all of Apple’s ecosystem while still being able to heavily modify my 3 Apple devices to bypass sand-boxing and sideload whatever I want. Do I wish that I didn’t have to jailbreak to allow Android-like functionality? To a degree. Does it turn me off buying Apple? No, as I’m heavily engaged in the jailbreak community, and have invested a lot of time and a bit of cash on top quality apps (to support the devs and get features added when requested) which are available from a variety of repos from around the world using Cydia.

    I guess I’m not your typical Apple user, given I’ve never owned a Mac and don’t intend to. I’m a Windows man when it comes to the desktop and laptops (I wouldnt mind a Retina Macbook Pro for fun though :)). I also went from an iPhone 3G to an HTC Desire, then upgraded to an iPhone4. I also considered getting a Galaxy Nexus, as if I were to go back to Android I’ve decided I only want pure vanilla jellybean or greater but I couldn’t live with the pentile screen, crappy camera. I really like a lot about Android, but I’m not at all a fan of manufacturer skins, drip-fed OS updates (if you’re lucky) and carrier bloatware. I realise that I could mess with custom ROMs, but I’ve been down that path before and can’t be bothered with it again. Playing with the Nexus 7 reminded me how much I enjoy pure Android.

    I’m also quite excited by Nokia’s upcoming Lumia 920. I’m not 100% sold on WP8 (particuraly given MS is apparently having a lot of issues upgrading to the new Kernel, casuing product delays) but I think WP8 will eventually become a natural product for many Windows 8 tablet and desktop users. Features on Nokia’s 920 like optical image stabalisation go a long way to improving camera quality too (another thing Apple get much better with each iteration). However the range of apps is abysmal compared to iOS and Android.

    Lastly, in regards to the article itself, there are many valid reasons people will want to stick with Apple, regardless of the specs of the phone before announcement. We already have a very good idea of many of the iPhone 5’s upgrades thanks to a plethora of leaks, and the rest will be fairly predicatable (followed by a tirade of comments from Android fantactis telling us how underpowered and uninspring it is). I also have accessories specifically for my iDevices (like a great one for my Onkyo amp that bypasses the DAC for lossless AAC+ playback) and another is just my clock radio. Yes I know the iPhone 5 is coming with a smaller dock connector, but it’s already been confirmed there will be adapters to fit existing products. Obviously losing Airplay would be a bummer too. Not to mention the many App Store apps, books, music, TV shows and films people buy (not that applicable in my case as my total iTunes expenditure would be under $100).

    Prediction: Certain tech jorunalists and bloggers will write an article early tomorrow morning after Apple’s keynote, expressing indifference to the iPhone 5’s improvements and being totally underwhelmed by everything. Why? Becuase it happens every year, and we all know that Apple’s upgrades aren’t the revolution they often claim they are, but rather they are generally iterative updates to gradually improve on what is already a solid experience. Android on the other hand isn’t limited to one update a year, so of course it will have leapfrogged some of the new iPhone’s specs and features in some areas. That just isn’t that relevant to many users, and specs aren’t the be all and end all of what defines a good user experience.

    tl, dl: Can’t we all just appreciate the merits of different technology regardless of manafacturer, cut the Apple hate, and stop labeling users of opposing ecosystems with stupid generalised names? No? Oh well. It was worth a try.

    Now, I’m off to drink some coffee and coke so I cant stay up late and enjoy watching Apple’s massively over-hyped iPhone 5 keynote at 2:45am tomorrow morning. If that makes me a fanboy, well so be it, but to me its just for fun :-)

  16. Great article Renai – I’ve unsubscribed from a few blogs this week as well, though I think this overhype situation is actually useful, it helps me discover which blogs are actually worth reading :)

    And great rant Simon – I too consider myself an informed Apple user – I graduated from WinMo to a 3G (the obvious choice at the time), 2 years later a 4 and now 2 years later getting an iPhone 5 is a no-brainer. To be honest I like not having to spec match a bunch of devices and make a decision for the next 2 years of phone usage that may not be a great one.
    I’m sure the iPhone 5 will be a great phone. It may not be an amazing phone compared to the current mobile landscape, but I’m certain it’s not going be a dud phone. It’s this certainty that makes me a happy Apple customer.
    In my days doing Computer Science, tinkering with PCs and gadget hacking took up a lot of my thought processes. I’m now much happier just to use technology to help enable my life, and I’ve stopped lusting after spec bumps and feature sets.

    • “I’m sure the iPhone 5 will be a great phone. It may not be an amazing phone compared to the current mobile landscape, but I’m certain it’s not going be a dud phone. It’s this certainty that makes me a happy Apple customer.”

      Exactly Steve. And to the vast majority of people that’s all that matters. They’ve come to expect a certain reliable, fluid experience with Apple, and they love their apps, and we have no reason to think that Apple and developers won’t deliver another great experience with the iPhone5.

      I’m still going to wait for reviews (and I may even hold off to see what the next official Nexus model is like if its announced in October) but from what I’ve seen from the leaks, I think a 4″ 16×9 iPhone will be perfect for my needs. If it lives up to my expectations in reviews (and hackers quickly find exploits :) ) I’ll be a happy man.

  17. “would that be a CookNote, now?” — I plan on calling them Cooki’s. I’d prefer iCook’s but it doesnt seem to work properly.

  18. Apple has gained a lot of consumer trust by delivering great products and great service consistently. It’s no surprise it will sell well. That’s how the market works for any product. Do a great job, and your customers become your advocates. If it’s a crap phone, and their service starts to suck, people will start leaving Apple. It may be true that the world would buy the 5 regardless of its offering, but credit to Apple for building trust in a brand at a level that noone before seems to have been able to do. I just hope they realize how valuable what they have is and don’t sabotage it themselves.

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