The chief executive of consumer electronics distributor PCRange, Raaj Menon, moved Adelaide suburbs earlier this year with the specific aim of being one of the first customers to be connected to the National Broadband Network — although his wife was happy as long as she could still get Facebook over Wi-Fi.
“In January we didn’t have any plans to move at all,” the executive said in a brief interview this morning after his fibre was connected this week, making the executive one of the first in South Australia to get the NBN. “We moved in February.”
NBNCo is starting a test process with a small number of residents before its trial is extended to about 100 Willunga premises over the next two months. The suburb is one of five first release sites on mainland Australia selected by NBN Co. The other locations are west Armidale, in NSW (launched in April this year); part of Brunswick in Melbourne; parts of the Townsville suburbs of Aitkenvale and Mundingburra; and the coastal communities of Minnamurra and Kiama Downs, south of Wollongong in NSW.
The executive — whose company PCRange imports the FRITZ!Box series of network routers and is a key parter of ISP Internode, with whom he has connected to the NBN — said his wife had wanted a house with a bigger backyard for their dogs anyway, so when he started looking for a new residence in January, he kept the Adelaide suburb of Willunga in mind, as he knew it was an early stage site for the NBN rollout. When he saw a “beautiful house” in the suburb, Menon was convinced about the shift — but it took his wife actually going inside to convince her. After that the move was on.
Menon said the commute to PCRange’s offices in Lonsdale wasn’t that different, as he could now travel on the expressway — a 20 minute drive as compared to a 10 minute drive previously. And the fibre benefits have already been impressive.
“I’m live and it’s a cracker,” said Menon of his new fibre NBN service in a statement issued by Internode yesterday. “At the moment, I’m downloading from newsgroups at nine megabytes per second, with Speedtest showing 95.5Mbps downstream and 35.5 upload speed.” In an extensive post on his own blog, Menon revealed further results — such as stellar speeds when downloading files from local FTP mirrors, as well as uploading files to his web server.
Latency on the network was also impressive — with Menon citing ping times of just 3 milliseconds. “Gamers will be in heaven with low pings,” he wrote.
“I have done a few tests here to stretch it to the limits,” he added. Several You Tube windows, several Vimeo HD streams, a couple of web downloads, uploading several files via FTP, several radio streams played on the desktop and 2 iPads. The network did not sweat it at all. All played smoothly.”
“On the other hand with my ADSL2+, I Would constantly have my radio streams buffering and when I stream some sports the dreaded spinning circle would appear. Of all the testing today no buffering. So that’s a huge plus. My ADSL2+ connection was 16.5Mbps down and 1Mbps up. So there is a pretty huge difference of up to six times the download speed and a whopping 40 times upload speeds. Over the course of the next month or two I will post an update to see how things are going but at present I am quite thrilled with the speeds.”
However, it’s unclear whether Menon’s wife will really have appreciated the difference.
“She’s not really a techie person,” the executive said, noting the fibre connection wasn’t a big motivation for his spouse to change house. “As long as she gets her FaceBook, that’s all that matters. She uses wireless anyway.”
Image credit: Mike Gieson, royalty free
Holy crap – 3ms ping time for gaming. Renai, when are you moving there?
If it was anywhere else apart from Adelaide …
Renai, you’re a Sydney guy right? Come and join me in the hole we call Riverstone! Cheap housing and NBN! Can’t go wrong!
I think the upload speed is very impressive too “400MB in under 2 minutes”?!?! That is ~3 times as fast as my download speed. Amazing. Just think in about 6 years time everyone will be enjoying these breathtaking speeds.
I’ve seen the upmarket Exetel copper connections get a fairly consistent 5 millisecond ping time to google.com.au (sometimes a fraction less). Are there really gamers out there with reactions so fast they can feel the difference between 3 milliseconds and 5 milliseconds? They should give up gaming and take up a full time job as a ninja or something.
Even my very ordinary iiNet copper connection will keep the pings to google.com.au under 20 milliseconds.
Go an download some reaction-time testing software and see who can get their hand eye reaction time under 20 milliseconds. Typical human reaction time is 200 milliseconds (or 10 times worse).
3ms ping?? That’s a dream! Today when I’m lucky I get 120ms. Most of the time I’m dead before I know! lol
Good on him! I’m seriously thinking about moving myself; I accidentally moved into a broadband blackspot two years ago (no ADSL or cable) and I’ve had enough of expensive and unreliable wireless. When I do move the availability of a NBN fibre connection will be right at the top of my list for choosing a new house.
This makes me wonder if the NBN rollout will have an effect on real estate prices? There’s probably not much happening now but as the rollout progresses and the broader public starts to better understand the advantages of FTTH, I can see NBN connected areas becoming more desirable than those stuck with crippled ADSL1 (or worse).
“the broader public starts to better understand the advantages of FTTH, I can see NBN connected areas becoming more desirable than those stuck with crippled ADSL1 (or worse).”
Yeah that’s exactly what happened with HFC suburbs and Greenfield FTTH estates, oh hang on a sec no it didn’t.
Obvious troll is obvious.
I’ve asked this before but never got an answer: do you ever have a positive thing to say? About anything?
@Jeremy
Funny I didn’t see a headline on this blog, ‘Feel good stories about the NBN only’ – someone disagreeing with you is not trolling, you might not like it but too bad.
The only thing ‘obvious’ is what I said is true, your assertion about NBN areas being desirable is yet another fantasy in the long list of fantasies from those pushing NBN FTTH hard, I assume you are posting from Smithton or one of the other areas in Tasmania on one of the few connections actually live on a ISP plan?
How’s the real estate market going in Smithton, Midway Point and Scottsdale? – they have had it for a year now, house prices must be going through the roof!
“Funny I didn’t see a headline on this blog, ‘Feel good stories about the NBN only’”
Very droll, but I was hardly talking about this post on its own. Can you link to a single post you’ve made on this site which isn’t negative in some way? And if not, what does that say about you? Nothing good I think.
“your assertion about NBN areas being desirable is yet another fantasy in the long list of fantasies”
Nice try but the astute reader will note I made no such assertion. Ironically your response is practically the definition of trolling, so obvious troll remains obvious whether he likes it or not!
” Can you link to a single post you’ve made on this site which isn’t negative in some way?”
Why is this important?
” And if not, what does that say about you? Nothing good I think.”
It says nothing at all, in just the same way that a poster that never post’s negative stuff about the NBN means nothing.
“Nice try but the astute reader will note I made no such assertion.”
Well you did actually:
“I can see NBN connected areas becoming more desirable than those stuck with crippled ADSL1 (or worse).”
There are some NBN connected areas and there are even more HFC connected areas decades old, but you don’t like historical comparisons about ‘desirability’ simply because they have high speed BB for the obvious reason.
Also we could bang on all day about what influences real estate prices, I can show you a suburb with HFC that has lower median house price than one that does not? What does that mean?
Are houses closer to Telstra exchanges more desirable than ones that are not?
Is a house with coastal view with no NBN more desirable than a house that has no coastal view but it has the NBN?
Absolutely pointless exercise.
” Ironically your response is practically the definition of trolling”
I repeat someone disagreeing with you is not trolling, you need to get out of Whirlpool more often, you are not a moderator in there by any chance are you?
“Why is this important?”
It isn’t important, but it certainly does explain a lot.
“Well you did actually:
“I can see NBN connected areas becoming more desirable than those stuck with crippled ADSL1 (or worse).””
That paragraph began with “This makes me wonder if”, which is not an assertion by anyone’s definition. But feel free to keep digging.
“Absolutely pointless exercise.”
And yet you took the time to type out a lengthy reply. What a kind soul you are!
“I repeat someone disagreeing with you is not trolling”
It’s not the disagreement which makes it trolling. I could tell you to look up the meaning of the word but there’s no need, your very next sentence provides a worthy example of the form:
“you need to get out of Whirlpool more often, you are not a moderator in there by any chance are you?”
Touche.
Hm, about that gaming thing… We should push him to ping all the biggest games.
arrrggghh, just hurry up and roll the farking thing out already!
*My ADSL2+ connection was 16.5Mbps down and 1Mbps up. So there is a pretty huge difference of up to six times the download speed and a whopping 40 times upload speeds.*
and to put things in context… Mr Menon is using an Internode trial 100Mbit connection (no doubt he’ll be able to afford the real thing if and when NBN moves out of pilot phase). NBNco’s own corporate plan tells us ~50% of consumers will be stuck on 12Mbit (below what Mr Menon is currently getting on ADSL) until 2028 because anything faster will be too expensive (similar to how Telstra’s premium data plans used to be so unaffordable).
of course, there’s always “Father Christmas”… then again, the Chinese real estate bubble could finally crash, simultaneously puncturing our mining boom and property bubble and decimating Federal/State/local tax revenue… and you can kiss goodbye to the prospect of the “gubmint” bailing us out of the $20/Mbit CVC charges.
hey, if Kim Jeong Un can get a private railway to his residence built on the back of starving, malnourished peasants, i don’t see why we shouldn’t all forgo our cheap, affordable ADSL* so that a rich minority can “game with low latency” or “stream radio” on their expensive 100Mbit connections. screw everyone else! ;)
* with some (including those on HFC) experiencing an actual downgrade in internet speeds to 12Mbit.
*blah blah blah* CVC too high *blah*? Okay got it. So what are you going to do about it?
i’m gonna grab a kebab, then go for a swim.
Spot On toshP300,
Its disgusting.
The comparison with a Tin Pot dictator ignoring / oblivious to what the people needs to satisfy his ego.
Nah, I don’t think he went far enough. Someone needs to find a way to link the NBN with Hitler.
Hey, trolling is fun!
what’s next? Mr Menon’s gonna test drive a Ferrari Testarossa? how about a Maybach? and he can blog about how it kicks the shit out of his BMW 7series.
same difference [with an NBN 100Mbit connection]…. the average Australian consumer won’t be able to afford one!
“]…. the average Australian consumer won’t be able to afford one!”
……. no he will to busy paying off Telstra on the monthly wireless plan on the Iphone 6 with LTE!
Oh alain, so contrary to your previous assurances that you “never suggested wireless will take over completely”, you now CONTRADICTORILY, infer it will…
What a surprise…
No I have not, but then you know that, but you had to respond with something, anything.
BTW what happens if you don’t, you cannot get to sleep?
YES YOU HAVE…! More lies eh?
RS, pipe down or I will pipe you down ;)
Funny how you always want to pipe me down and let the others off eh…?
Tosh calls NK a dickhead, which I have never done and you laugh…! But I call a liar a liar and I get told pipe down, seriously Renai!
It’s because Tosh cloaks his insults in a bunch of other more normal-looking debating paragraphs, RS. You just need to do the same and I’ll pay less attention ;)
Ok Renai,
I don’t believe in subtlety, I prefer to get the cards on the table… but…
LOL!
“Diplomacy is to do and say the nastiest things in the nicest way.”
;)
Well I’ll never be a diplomat.. but I’ll give it a go…LOL!
Well done Renai. RS will hopefully provide more diplomatic entertaining content now. We look for ward to your artfull contribution RS. I love these conversations.
:{D
Get real, GPON technology is hardly the “Ferrari” of telecommunications in 2011. If you want to use an automotive analogy, NBNco is replacing a clapped-out 1982 Commodore with a shiny new 2011 Commodore.
I know that people like you would rather wait until the old banger literally bursts into flames before looking at a replacement, but the more prudent option is to upgrade before the problems set in – especially when a rollout of this magnitude takes at least a decade.
*Get real, GPON technology is hardly the “Ferrari” of telecommunications in 2011.*
the gist of the analogy centres on the “affordability” aspect, not technical capability.
*I know that people like you would rather wait until the old banger literally bursts into flames before looking at a replacement, but the more prudent option is to upgrade before the problems set in*
if you wander around the “real world”, you’ll notice that most things are “old”… from general infrastructure to houses, apartment blocks, cars, machinery…. you name it. there’s a reason why most things are used until the end of their useful economic lives instead of just trashing everything that’s “old” and replacing it with brank, spanking “new”. it’s highly costly to replace something because you need to divert resources from other productive uses.
there’s nothing “prudent” about Labor’s NBN – it’s the most extravagant, wasteful, retrograde political project ever proposed.
*especially when a rollout of this magnitude takes at least a decade.*
there’s a huge difference between lifting up the minority stuck in broadband “blackspots” up to the same level as everyone else… and indiscriminately pushing EVERYONE higher up the cost chain with (almost) universal fibre connections based on speculative demand.
it’s economic insanity.
“the gist of the analogy centres on the “affordability” aspect, not technical capability.”
I understood the analogy, and GPON is smack in the middle of the affordability aspect; it’s far from the high end (Ferrari) of telecommunication options. You might have had a point 15 years ago, but fibre is the baseline now.
“there’s a reason why most things are used until the end of their useful economic lives”
Quite so, and a network which was first put in place in the 1940’s can be safely described as end of life. Let’s not sit here and pretend the current state of our broadband network (what I like to call the “ADSL lottery”) is anything but fundamentally broken. It’s demeaning.
“there’s nothing “prudent” about Labor’s NBN – it’s the most extravagant, wasteful, retrograde political project ever proposed.”
So you assert, but objective reality does not support your position.
Incidentally you’re the first to bring the name of a political party into this discussion. I think this speaks volumes about your true motivations.
“I understood the analogy, and GPON is smack in the middle of the affordability aspect;”
Really? so getting back to the point of this discussion and the headline of the blog, how much is the Internode partner on the Internode connection paying for his creme de la creme NBN monthly plan then?
“Quite so, and a network which was first put in place in the 1940′s can be safely described as end of life.”
HFC has been around since the 1940’s?
“So you assert, but objective reality does not support your position.”
A few pilot sites running FREE NBN connections to an almost immeasurable minority of the population is ‘objective reality’ is it?
“Incidentally you’re the first to bring the name of a political party into this discussion. I think this speaks volumes about your true motivations.”
So whose baby is the NBN then? devised by the then Labor Prime Minister Rudd and Minister Conroy on a domestic plane flight as a political face saver after the RFP process fell in a heap, the Greens?
“devised by the then Labor Prime Minister Rudd and Minister Conroy on a domestic plane flight”
Just amazing what they have been able to achieve with just that. I’d say that makes the coalition look even more incompetent, Abbott and the rest of the zoo crew have been constantly trying to catch up coming up with a plethora of broadband plans each one as ill conceived as the last because NBNco keep making progress and the public simply are not fooled by it…
oh look this just in http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Coalition-pushed-to-release-NBN-plan-report-pd20110627-J8R5T?opendocument&src=rss seems they have come up with a “new one” while I was typing that lol!
“Really? so getting back to the point of this discussion and the headline of the blog, how much is the Internode partner on the Internode connection paying for his creme de la creme NBN monthly plan then?”
We all know the NBN is still in testing mode and the gentleman in question is participating in a trial, not a full retail service. It even says so in the article above. What’s your point?
“A few pilot sites running FREE NBN connections to an almost immeasurable minority of the population is ‘objective reality’ is it?”
See, this is the danger with barging in on someone else’s conversation. Your sentence doesn’t even make sense in the context of this discussion. But making sense has never been your goal has it?
“So whose baby is the NBN then?”
Thankyou for confirming you belong in the same hopelessly-blinkered-partisan bucket as your friend.
“We all know the NBN is still in testing mode and the gentleman in question is participating in a trial, not a full retail service. It even says so in the article above. What’s your point?”
The point is based on this statement by you:
“I understood the analogy, and GPON is smack in the middle of the affordability aspect;”
If you cannot say if it is ‘affordable’ or not because it is under trial why say it?
“See, this is the danger with barging in on someone else’s conversation. Your sentence doesn’t even make sense in the context of this discussion. But making sense has never been your goal has it?”
Oh it makes sense all right, so what do you mean by ‘objective reality’ then?
“Thankyou for confirming you belong in the same hopelessly-blinkered-”
It’s ok you can cough it out, it won’t hurt, the NBN is a 100% political decision by the Labor party, in the same way the insulation program was a 100% Labor political decision (oops bad comparison), but you get the drift, but you will pretend you don’t.
*You might have had a point 15 years ago, but fibre is the baseline now.*
why has Verizon, which operates in a country with “similar” cost geography as ours, stopped rolling-out FTTH?
*Quite so, and a network which was first put in place in the 1940′s can be safely described as end of life.*
it’s so worthless NBNco’s paying $13 bln to Telstra to shut it down.
*Let’s not sit here and pretend the current state of our broadband network (what I like to call the “ADSL lottery”) is anything but fundamentally broken.*
“fundamentally broken”? oh, please. biased, much?
i symphatise with anyone stuck in a premise with no ADSL or cable. like i said, we should make it the highest priority to lift the small minority of people stuck in blackspots up to the average standard currently enjoyed by everyone else.
*Incidentally you’re the first to bring the name of a political party into this discussion.*
so as to differentiate between a “national broadband network” in a generic sense and a particular “political proposal or variant”.
What a load of bollocks….the lib fanbois are running out of baseless arguments to attack the NBN so now they are trying the “most people won’t be able to afford the 100/30Mbps speeds”.
Mate myself, like many many others are already paying just as much for a lot less. I’m currently paying $83/month for ADSL1 (no ADSL2 available on my RIM) that syncs at 5Mbps/256Kbs and that is with one of the cheapest providers available and I am 12KM from the Melbourne’s CBD centre!!!
There are thousands of others out there like me….heck I could consider myself lucky compared to all my neighbours on wireless as there are no ports left on the RIM….they are paying even more for even less..
The NBN isn’t just about speeds….it will once and for all equate the infrastructure across the nation….you’ll be virtually guaranteed to GET WHAT YOU’RE PAYING FOR, unlike the current regime of “tough luck, you’re too far from the exchange, there is too much noise on your line, you are on a RIM, you are on Pair Gain, there are no ports available, there are no competitors DSLAMs in the exchange, the wind is blowing in the wrong direction etc etc etc….
*baseless arguments to attack the NBN*
there’s no need to “attack” the NBN…. you just gotta lift the cloche, and the pervasive, foul stench of NBN (un)economics invades the room.
*so now they are trying the “most people won’t be able to afford the 100/30Mbps speeds”.*
AVC = $38
CVC = 100Mbit x $20/Mbit x 0.02 (50:1 contention ratio)
= $40
total NBN WHOLESALE cost (excluding NNI) = ~ $80 (vs. copper ULL of $16)
add local backhaul, international backhaul, other RSP operating expenses, profit margin, etc.
*The NBN isn’t just about speeds….it will once and for all equate the infrastructure across the nation…*
you do realise even for basic utilities like electricity, wholesale prices vary across states?
*you’ll be virtually guaranteed to GET WHAT YOU’RE PAYING FOR, unlike the current regime of “tough luck, you’re too far from the exchange*
i pay the same taxes as everyone else – why do i have to walk 500m to the nearest tram stop when the guy living at the top of the street just has to cross the road? that calls for a social revolution!
Oh Tosh as I have said before…
While ever you wish to make your radcon political ideology and $$$$$’s the governing NBN factor, you simply are not equipped to understand the all encompassing aspects of the NBN and being so, yes, your derision is baseless.
Again the NBN is a comprehensive A-Z network which will take ten years to build.
All you do is hone in on one aspect (let’s call it M) which is (surprise, surprise) the economics, based around radical conservatism, whilst ignoring A-L and N-Z.
I prefer to see A-Z and of course factor M – “which again NBNCo have said they will review if they are too great so please…!
I put all of that through the Google translator, it still doesn’t make any sense.
No it wouldn’t make sense to you alain, because you are only able to comprehend (and then repeat in parrot fashion) imbecilic FUD.
Sadly, intelligent correspondence escapes you completely…
But thanks for at least admitting it.
*eyes this thread balefully*
LOL. nice one.
Tosh, what you suggest is only 50:1 contention is the connection is unlimited. When you factor in, many of the people on the ISP you are using as a example will barely downloading anything, it’s less than 50:1
It would only be 50:1 contention if everyone was on a unlimited plan therefor had the option to download 24/7
If I am not mistaken, 50:1 contention on a 100Mbps service allows for everyone to download 618GB
That is more than 20 times higher than what the average user downloads now.
You are trying to mislead people into thinking the NBN is more expensive than it really is, please don’t.
the point is there is no CVC charge on copper. right now, ISPs can provide 1TB plans for $16 ULL or $2.50 LSS. under NBN, depending on what contention ratios you want to apply, the CVC charge alone will be multiples of what ISPs currently pay to access the fixed network.
not misleading at all.
Why don’t you just get a decent paying job instead of hating on everyone else who’s educated and employed themselves?
yes, i can just imagine:
Quigley to 50% of Australians: “what? you don’t like being stuck on 12Mbit until 2028 (even though some of you are currently on faster DSL or cable than that)? go get a decent paying job!”
i’m not hating on anyone. we need MORE Australians like Mr Menon to run GREAT businesses like PCRange which don’t rely on government subsidies or shutting down competition to survive.
Toshp,
You realise that the prices are likely to decline. In fact, even if they remain at exactly the same wholesale price, when you factor in inflation, they’ll be 30% cheaper in a decade. Another decade, another 30% cheaper.
Rough figures, obviously. What matters is always the real cost. If incomes increase in line with inflation, the real cost to access the NBN will be bordering on extremely cheap.
I personally can’t see many being on 12mbit before it’s finished.
I suspect 25 will be the fibre baseline.
“I personally can’t see many being on 12mbit before it’s finished.”
yep, once the NBN reaches critical mass I think most people will opt for faster plans, there wont be any sense in choosing a 12mbit plan by then but personally I think the 25 & 50mbps plans will be phased out while the 100mbps plans will be pushed by ISPs and become the standard. 12mbps will still exist only to shut the whingers up.
@HC
Well that’s interesting because the NBN business plan (remember that?) tells us that the lowest uniform standard wholesale price of $24 per month is for a 12Mbps download and 1Mbps upload speed across all three platforms fibre, wireless and satellite, to that you have to add the ISP retail margin, and whatever other services it adds on top, like voice call packages.
Your pie in the sky predictions of once a ‘critical mass’ is reached (whatever figure that is) where ISP’s will push higher speeds so that 100 Mbps becomes the standard is based on the fantasy that the baseline wholesale price of $24/mth for 12Mbps will be magically discounted by ISP’s so it is for 100Mbps.
The business plan… that 99% thereof is BS according to you… so you pick out the 1% which suits…LOL
Ah the vain and desperate are precious… aren’t you lainy!
“blah blah blah you have to add the ISP retail margin, and whatever other services it adds on top, like voice call packages.”
You really enjoy stating the obvious on these forums…
“Your pie in the sky predictions more blah blah blah piffle piffle waffle”
My predictions and what will happen are two difference things, hence the phrase “personally I think” (did you miss that one?) if 25 & 50mbps plans are phased out then I will be right, ISPs and/or NBNco will push 100mbps plans, that is not a fantasy, that is just plain logical. If 25 & 50mbps plans are not phased out “most people will opt for faster plans” anyway… myne is right about that.
Whatever you do don’t mention the price eh?
“Whatever you do don’t mention the price eh?”
What about the prices? Regardless of what happens prices of current plans will come down due to the fact that higher speeds will be made available or do you expect these things to remain static? Remember by ~2020 1gbps connections will be available (if not sooner) and 100/40mbps will be the new 12mbps. It’s all about raising the standard. This is not rocket science.
@HC
*What about the prices? Regardless of what happens prices of current plans will come down due to the fact that higher speeds will be made available or do you expect these things to remain static? Remember by ~2020 1gbps connections will be available (if not sooner) and 100/40mbps will be the new 12mbps. It’s all about raising the standard. This is not rocket science.*
by 2020, NBNco will have only just finished rolling out the GPON fibre network which only has a guaranteed capacity of 80Mbit per connection.
if you make 100/40 the entry-level plan which has to be priced at $24 AVC, how is NBNco going to earn the higher port fees to reach its revenue target? in addition, the capacity provisioning associated with a 100/40 connection is substantially more expensive than that for a 12/1 connection. this will screw up entry-level affordability once you factor in CVC charges.
basically, if you make 100/40 the “standard” plan (presumably because everyone will, on average, require and utilise the port to its “full” capability), the 80Mbit technical constraint of the GPON topology means that you are no longer able to offer the higher speed plans.
care to explain your “rocket science”?
“how is NBNco going to earn the higher port fees to reach its revenue target?”
Wow, it’s almost as if you weren’t paying attention…
“in addition, the capacity provisioning associated with a 100/40 connection is substantially more expensive than that for a 12/1 connection.”
Provisioning associated a 100/40 connection is CURRENTLY more expensive, why would you think this would remain static?
“the 80Mbit technical constraint of the GPON topology means that you are no longer able to offer the higher speed plans.”
80mbit would assume a “worst case” scenario and assumes all 32 connections are maxed out and there is congestion. Regardless it has nothing to do with future services. What do you think NBNco hasn’t thought of all this? Do you think NBNco would announce 1gbps speeds and then not have a plan? Do you think they wont upgrade when necessary and/or the time comes?
“care to explain your “rocket science”?”
Sure here you go: http://delimiter.com.au/2011/06/28/pcrange-ceo-moved-suburbs-to-get-nbn-fibre/#comment-82945 try reading it this time.
@HC
*Provisioning associated a 100/40 connection is CURRENTLY more expensive, why would you think this would remain static?*
let’s assume NBNco gets the huge uplift in data usage (600GB/mth) that they’re looking for and CVC falls from $20/Mbit to $8.75/Mbit (as per Corporate Plan):
CVC = $8.75/Mbit x 18Mbit/s ~ $158 (zero burst capacity provisioning)
AVC + CVC = $24 + $158 = $182
that breaks Labor’s commitment of $24-ish entry-level pricing.
*80mbit would assume a “worst case” scenario and assumes all 32 connections are maxed out and there is congestion.*
100Mbit baseline service means you’re offering ~30% more PIR than the 78Mbit max guaranteed under GPON. that doesn’t leave much headroom to offer higher port speeds.
for example, imagine if 15/32 connections burst at 100Mbit (that chews up 1.5Gbit) and the 16th connection bursts at 1Gbit, that leaves ZERO for the remaining 16 connections.
*What do you think NBNco hasn’t thought of all this? Do you think NBNco would announce 1gbps speeds and then not have a plan?*
NBNco is offering port speeds higher than 100Mbit on the basis that ~50% of subscribers are restricted to 12Mbit connections. this naturally creates a lot of residual capacity for the higher port speeds.
on the other hand, *you* are arguing that 100Mbit will be the baseline service when GPON limits each connection to 78Mbit max guaranteed.
* Do you think they wont upgrade when necessary and/or the time comes?*
you’re saying 100Mbit will be the entry-level service by 2020 with other users on even faster port speeds (1Gbit). however, by 2020, NBNco will have only just finished building the 78Mbit GPON network.
i’m not going to let you weasel your way out of this.
you love making shit up, don’t you?
@HC
“What about the prices? Regardless of what happens prices of current plans will come down”
You STILL have avoided stating them I see, funny that eh?
So HC if the lowest base wholesale price of a NBN plan @ 12 Mbps/1 Mbps is going to be $24/mth + retail margin + add on services, how much will 100Mbps be and what year will this happen?
.
“100Mbit baseline service means you’re offering ~30% more PIR than the 78Mbit max guaranteed under GPON. that doesn’t leave much headroom to offer higher port speeds. ”
Once again it has nothing to do with future services.
“on the other hand, *you* are arguing that 100Mbit will be the baseline service when GPON limits each connection to 78Mbit max guaranteed.”
No, I never said that, I said 100/40 would be the new 12/1. Much in the same way dialup still exists now but ADSL2+ is the standard. I even said “12mbps will still exist only to shut the whingers up.”
“you’re saying 100Mbit will be the entry-level service by 2020 with other users on even faster port speeds (1Gbit). however, by 2020, NBNco will have only just finished building the 78Mbit GPON network.”
Do you think NBNCo wont upgrade when necessary and/or the time comes? Simple question.
“i’m not going to let you weasel your way out of this.”
You must be joking. HA! There is nothing to “weasel” out of. The only thing you’ve done is make a lot of silly assumptions…
“you love making shit up, don’t you?”
You know I was just thinking the same thing about your posts. You have committed yourself to the “~50% of consumers will be stuck on 12mbps by 2028” line and you simply cant see past it. Everything you write is pinned on that one assumption. You are so anti-NBN you are blinded by it, you can’t accept that things CAN and WILL change.
“You STILL have avoided stating them I see, funny that eh?”
Exactly what is there to state? Whats funny about it? You’ve read my posts and can read them again and all I’ve basically said faster connections will be cheaper in the future. It’s not hard to figure out but if you think the cost will be higher then you are wrong.
@HC
*Once again it has nothing to do with future services.*
what do you mean it has nothing to do with future services?
you are arguing that by 2020, 100Mbit will be the entry-level service with many subscribers accessing even higher port speeds (1Gbit) (when by 2020, NBNco will only just have completed rolling-out 78Mbit GPON.) hence, what you’re arguing is impossible both in terms of preserving baseline affordability and technical contention.
*No, I never said that, I said 100/40 would be the new 12/1.*
in addition to the above, this is what you said:
“the 25 & 50mbps plans will be phased out while the 100mbps plans will be pushed by ISPs and become the standard.”
if the lower speed tiers are “phased-out” and “100/40” will be the new “12/1”, you’re clearly and unambiguously arguing that 100Mbit will be the baseline service with a substantial chunk of subscribers. the “legacy” 12Mbit service will be inconsequential in terms of number of subscribers, network contention and financial impact.
*Do you think NBNCo wont upgrade when necessary and/or the time comes? Simple question.*
NBNco’s Corporate Plan clearly states that it’s building 78Mbit GPON that will hopefully be completed by 2020. the reason why NBNco is able to offer the higher speed ports is because ~50% of subscribers are constrained to 12Mbit ports due to affordability.
*You must be joking. HA! There is nothing to “weasel” out of. The only thing you’ve done is make a lot of silly assumptions…*
what am i joking about? what silly assumption have i made?
has the Labor Government not promised a $24-ish entry-level pricing point under the NBN?
isn’t the cost of provisioning capacity for 100Mbit connections substantially higher than that for 12Mbit connections?
does the NBNco Corporate Plan and other extensive marketing materials not state that it’s building 78Mbit GPON by 2020?
why are YOU assuming that the cost parameters for accessing the NBN will be dramatically different from what is stated by NBNco is its Corporate Plan?
why are YOU assuming that NBNco will be building something other than 78Mbit GPON that is comprehensively described in its Corporate Plan and marketing materials?
why are YOU MAKING SHIT UP and false assertions post after post?
*You have committed yourself to the “~50% of consumers will be stuck on 12mbps by 2028″ line and you simply cant see past it.*
this is NBNco’s pricing policy – it’s the same generic business model adopted by telcos around the world (and even businesses outside of the telecommunications sector).
to put it simply, you create an entry-level product which is affordable to most subscribers to maximise overall market penetration. to achieve your budgeted revenue or average gross margins, you then introduce more attractive, premium products with higher price points which are targeted at wealthier subscribers with higher discretionary spend.
that’s nothing controversial about this pricing model and there’s no reason why NBNco’s stated strategy in recouping the exorbitant cost of building the fibre network will deviate from this stock standard business model.
== Pause Debate between HC and Tosh =
Please. Please. Please. Look up contention before you open up your mouth again Tosh.
A contention ratio of 13:1 (what the NBN will have if they stick to the 1000Mbps/400Mbps top connections and GPON, both of which they won’t do for obvious reasons (10G-PON will become cheaper, and continuing upgrading of back-haul capacity will mean they can move the “minimum” service from 12Mbps should they chose) is good. Residential users do not need CIR. Most networks outside dedicated dark fibre have around 20:1 or worse contention ratios because the network is never 100% utilised. It is prohibitively expensive to offer 1:1 services to residential users, and further more, there will likely be far worse contention problems at the back-haul than the hardware contention of the 13:1 presented by the GPON.
People who need, and can afford a CIR (i.e. more than say 100Mbps synchronous) of over what the NBN can feasibly provide will still, as they do now, need to invest in dark-fibre connections with provides like PIPE.
Also, what the hell is this here:
600GB/mth ~ 18Mbit/s
Let’s see, 600GB/mth = (600x1000x8) Mb/mth = 4,800,000Mbit / (3600 * 24 * 30) s = 4,800,000 / 2,592,000s = 1.8Mb/s ~= 2Mb/s(zero burst speed capacity)
Now it’s only a factor of 10, I’ll grant you. But please, it would be helpful if you got your figures correct on your arguments. 18Mbit/s is about what you’d need to get a non-burst quota of 6TB. Also this is fairly obvious otherwise the fabled Terabyte plans would be a scam because it would be physically impossible to download that much data off the majority connections if your maths was accurate here.
I hope this clears up some of the issues in your debate
=== Resume debate between HC and Tosh ===
“there’s no reason why NBNco’s stated strategy in recouping the exorbitant cost of building the fibre network will deviate from this stock standard business model.”
Especially if two factors that come into play that are trends known even in 2011 and will cause massive budget blow outs, that is the NBN doesn’t get anywhere near its projected 70% take up rate of punters using NBN as their BB option, coupled with the amazingly pessimistic forecast which will also detrimentally effect the 70% figure, that isi t will take until 2025 for 16.3% of residences to be wireless ONLY.
That figure at the moment is at 13% and that’s just from Telstra customers, how it will only rise by 3% in 14 years at the current accelerating trend rate is a most amazing prediction in the land of the amazing.
“you are arguing that by 2020, 100Mbit will be the entry-level service”
No, I never said that, I said 100/40 would be the new 12/1. Much in the same way dialup still exists now but ADSL2+ is the standard. I even said “12mbps will still exist only to shut the whingers up.”
“the reason why NBNco is able to offer the higher speed ports”
“higher port speeds”? higher than 100/40?
“is because ~50% of subscribers are constrained to 12Mbit ports due to affordability.”
Which can change. You keep saying ~50% of subscribers will be on 12mbps on 2028 right? It’s just a silly assumption.
“in addition to the above, this is what you said:”
That’s right. What I said about 25 & 50mbps plans makes no difference to this either.
“what silly assumption have i made?”
“~50% of consumers will be stuck on 12mbps by 2028” Which you have NO proof of whatsoever. It’s just a silly assumption.
“why are YOU assuming”
Actually I’m not assuming anything.
“why are YOU MAKING SHIT UP and false assertions post after post?”
What did I make up? Point it out. I haven’t made ANY assertions at all either and certainly not to the degree of something like “~50% of consumers will be stuck on 12mbps by 2028” I’ve just a few educated predictions which any logical thinker can figure out.
“this is NBNco’s pricing policy”
Which they can change if they choose. They can also upgrade hardware as well.
“10G-PON will become cheaper, and continuing upgrading of back-haul capacity”
Exactly.
“=== Resume debate between HC and Tosh ===”
It’s not much of a debate though is it? I mean this thread was originally about “PCRange CEO moved suburbs to get NBN fibre” and typically the anti-NBN crusaders seem to be ignoring that, I guess any good news about the NBN is too much for their pea brains to handle :-(
@HC
“You’ve read my posts and can read them again and all I’ve basically said faster connections will be cheaper in the future.”
Yes I read your posts and there is no mention of the $ figure anywhere, cheaper than what? cheaper than $24/mth wholesale? cheaper than a current 2011 ADSL/ADSL2+ lowest priced plan with Dodo or TPG?, cheaper than a $49 NextG LTE capped Plan with Telstra?
Your statement is so vague it means nothing, which is deliberate on your part anyway.
“Yes I read your posts and there is no mention of the $ figure anywhere”
Why would there be? I did not make a $ prediction.
“cheaper than what?”
Since we are talking about NBNco so that would be cheaper wholesale prices. Pay attention.
“Your statement is so vague it means nothing, which is deliberate on your part anyway.”
It’s not vague at all, it’s pretty simple actually so question now is do you agree or disagree with the statement?
@HC
“Why would there be? I did not make a $ prediction.”
No you deliberately have not , so ‘cheaper’ can be anything you want it to be.
“Since we are talking about NBNco so that would be cheaper wholesale prices. Pay attention.”
So 100Mbps will be cheaper than the current NBN baseline $24/mth wholesale will it?
“It’s not vague at all,”
As you have not defined the baseline price it will cheaper than the statement is meaningless and is just dog chasing its tail time wasting BS.
@NK
Issue 1:
you totally MISSED the point.
yes, it’s true that residential users don’t require CIR – but RSPs have to provide for burst capacity (PIR).
basically, NBN proponents are running the argument that we’ll soon be using 1Gbit, 5Gbit,…10Gbit, etc and 100Mbit (PIR) will be the “baseline” (minimum) requirement.
hence, in the bandwidth-intensive world that fibre proponents fantasise, the average household on an “entry-level” 100Mbit connection will be bursting at 100Mbit on a regular basis (i.e. it will be a common phenomenon). otherwise, what’s the point of having even fasting PIR connections such as 1Gbit, 5Gbit…. 10Gbit and making 100Mbit the “baseline” PIR requirement?
we can reframe the problem – let me ask you this:
assume that “X GPON” only has aggregate capacity of (12 x 78 x 32 / 100) 300Mbit which translates into 9.375Mbit guaranteed per connection. if the “baseline” connection is 12Mbit, how much PIR capacity headroom is there to offer 25Mbit, 50Mbit,… 100Mbit connections? don’t forget – RSPs have to provision for burst capacity (PIR).
Issue 2:
so, i unwittingly left out a “0” – moving the decimal places one step towards the left:
CVC = $8.75/Mbit x 1.8Mbit/s ~ $15.8 (zero burst capacity provisioning)
AVC + CVC = $24 + $15.8 ~$40
that is still ~67% higher than the Labor guarantee of $24-ish entry-level.
(not surprisingly, the resultant ARPU of $40 is substantially below NBNco’s required ARPU.)
thanks for pointing out the incorrect decimal place, however, the substance of my arguments on ALL points still stand.
“No you deliberately have not , so ‘cheaper’ can be anything you want it to be.”
No it cant “be anything I want it to be” as I have not made a $ prediction. I cant change that, what I have made a true or false prediction. Do I believe faster connections will be cheaper in the future? True. Now do you agree or disagree with this prediction? (Hint: I am not asking you for a $ amount)
“So 100Mbps will be cheaper than the current NBN baseline $24/mth wholesale will it?”
100mbps connections will be cheaper than what they are now. Do you agree or disagree with this statement?
“As you have not defined the baseline price”
I dont have to define a baseline price. That has nothing to do with my prediction. If you want to predict exact prices then go for it but that it not the question I am asking, I am asking do you think prices for a 100/40mbps connection will be cheaper or more expensive in the future? (say 2028 lol)
Come back when you actually know how GPON works. GPON has an aggregate downstream capacity of 2.5Gbps, and an aggregate upstream capacity of 1.25Gbps. That capacity is shared, so it can already provide burst (PIR) of 1Gbps/400Mbps at contentiom of about 13:1.
With that level of contention, backhaul providing, the ability to burst to 100Mbps is already achieved. So Issue 1 isn’t.
As for Issue 2, you’re right, the CVC costs are too high and I have conceded that on multiple occasions, so why don’t you just take it as a given from now on please?
@NK
*That capacity is shared, so it can already provide burst (PIR) of 1Gbps/400Mbps at contentiom of about 13:1.*
assuming that average usage of 1Gbit connections results in regular 1Gbit/s bursts. do you think it’s feasible, in practice, to offer 1Gbit (PIR) connections to all 32 premises under 2.5Gbit GPON?
what would happen if 3 out of 32 premises simultaneously burst at 1Gbit on a sustained basis?
… Tosh, come back when you actually know how networking works in large scale deployments.
@NK
answer the Q, yes/no?
Yes. That’s feasible. Now, go find out why, and also why 13:1 is an execeptional level of contention for a residential network. End of line.
@HC
“Do I believe faster connections will be cheaper in the future?”
Here we go again, cheaper than what?
“True.”
How can you say true when you have not defined cheaper.
” Now do you agree or disagree with this prediction? (Hint: I am not asking you for a $ amount)”
I disagree because I can play the same avoid the issue game you play, cheaper than nothing is the same as more expensive than nothing, isn’t the play ground fun?
“100mbps connections will be cheaper than what they are now. Do you agree or disagree with this statement?”
Ahh yes the best form of defense when backed into a corner is attack, RS uses that avoidance
technique a lot, when a awkward question is asked avoid answering by asking another more often than not stupid off topic question.
Which ISP 100Mbps plan are you referring to when you say ‘now’?
I suppose you will come with some BS response like any ISP or it doesn’t matter, keep up the tap dancing HC the NBN needs all the smoke and mirrors from comedy double acts like you and RS it can get.
Seriously alain,
Debating the issues is a noble pursuit.
Speaking about the pro’s an cons of the NBN. The obvious details and the finer points. It is an art-form which involves a bit of touche`, every now and then to your foe, when he/she makes a rational point, which only a fool would argue over.
But pitifully none-the-less, you argue…
When you are wrong, you are sadly ill-equipped to accept it and instead contradict yourself, make excuses and blatantly lie to vainly try to avoid the inevitable embarrassment.
And when you are right..
Err, hasn’t happened as yet, so who knows…!
@NK
thank you for correcting my misunderstanding on “feasible contention”.
since it’s feasible under 2.5Gbit GPON to offer 100Mbit as the baseline port speed with even higher port speeds (up to 1Gbit) offered to other subscribers, why doesn’t NBNco offer 100/40 as the entry-level service in 2028?
NBNco faces two constraints:
(i) the entry-level port charge has to be pegged at $24-ish;
(ii) NBNco has to earn a targeted level of revenue across all ports.
suppose that NBNco were to make 100/40 the entry-level service in 2028. this would widen the price difference between 250/100 and 100/40 in terms of AVC charges. some 250/100 subscribers will be enticed to drop down to the cheaper entry-level service. so, port fees have to be adjusted downwards across all speed tiers to ensure a balanced distribution of subscribers across all the ports. furthermore, to counteract falling port prices, there will have to be a compositional shift in the subscriber mix towards the more expensive ports to maintain the same revenue.
in fact, NBNco’s business plan does project a fall in port prices as subscribers migrate to higher speed tiers. however, despite this, <40% of subscribers still remain on 12/1 in 2028 (from ~50% in 2012). in fact, despite the dramatic fall in AVC charges for the higher speed tiers, <60% of subscribers still remain on 100/40 or slower ports.
if 100/40 was made the new entry-level service at $24 AVC, the port charges for the higher speed tiers would have to be further compressed (beyond the extent modeled by NBNco). again, for this to be revenue neutral for NBNco, this would require a further migration in the subscriber mix towards the higher speed tiers.
given that it's feasible in terms of network contention for NBNco to offer 100/40 as the baseline service, this means that the reason why NBNco isn't designating 100/40 the entry-level port in 2028 is because NBNco doesn't expect sufficient migration by subscribers to more expensive, faster ports (250/100 and above).
so far, i've only considered AVC revenue. when you toss CVC charges into the mix:
(i) the requirement to provision substantial capacity for 100/40 ports makes it difficult to package an "all-in" (including CVC charges) entry-level service priced at $24-ish;
(ii) this is somewhat offset by the higher data usage implied by higher subscriber numbers on 250/100 or faster ports which allows the CVC charge to fall further;
(iii) the higher overall CVC revenue implied by setting 100/40 as the baseline service affords NBNco some leeway in terms of accepting lower AVC revenue from compressing port fees for the faster ports.
hence, two major and independent factors are preventing NBNco from setting 100/40 as the baseline connection in 2028:
(i) the $24-ish entry-level pricing constraint*;
(ii) insufficient demand for higher speed tiers (250/100 and faster).
this explains why 17 years from now, the entry-level service on the NBN will still be 12/1 despite the technical capabilities of 2.5Gbit GPON (as you pointed out).
while NBNco might be a "monopoly", the "political mandate" imposed upon it of maintaining an affordable entry-level product at a certain "low" price point represents a huge constraint on its ability to shape the market in terms of pricing and product positioning.
in any event, even if you removed the "political constraint" of $24-ish entry-level pricing, if NBNco tried to jack-up entry-level pricing substantially above $24-ish, it will lose out badly to wireless competition in the "light user" market.
* if 100/40 ports received a "CVC exemption", this would further widen the "all-in" pricing gap between the putative 100/40 entry-level service and the higher speed tiers and unbalance the subscriber mix.
“Here we go again, cheaper than what?”
Have you not been paying attention?
“How can you say true”
What? You’re really not getting his are you. It’s my prediction, the question I posed (to myself) Do I believe faster connections will be cheaper in the future? Yes, yes I do (True) Now the question is do you agree or disagree with this prediction?
“when you have not defined cheaper.”
Once again I do not need to define a price, the prediction is that higher speeds will be cheaper in the future not more expensive. Do you agree or disagree?
“Ahh yes the best form of defense when backed into a corner is attack, RS uses that avoidance”
I’m not avoiding anything. Seems you are the one avoiding. I’m asking a simple question: Do you agree or disagree that faster speeds (100/40mbps) will be cheaper in the future (2028)?
“off topic question.”
How is it off topic?
“Which ISP 100Mbps plan are you referring to when you say ‘now’?”
Wow, you really haven’t been paying attention, who said anything about ISPs. NBNco. Wholesale. Remember?
“keep up the tap dancing HC the NBN needs all the smoke and mirrors from comedy double acts like you and RS it can get.”
So the questions still remains: I have made a prediction that the wholesale cost of a 100/40mbps connection will be cheaper in 2028 than it is today, do you agree or disagree? Are you going to “tap dance” and avoid the question?
*So the questions still remains: I have made a prediction that the wholesale cost of a 100/40mbps connection will be cheaper in 2028 than it is today, do you agree or disagree? Are you going to “tap dance” and avoid the question?*
what is today’s 100/40 equivalent? what kind of cost structure does “today’s 100/40” embody?
NBNco’s cost structure reflects “fibre to 93% of premises”. there’s no current day equivalent to that.
your underlying assertion is that 100/40 will become “baseline affordable” in 2028.
for that to happen, the overall port costs of 100/40 will have to collapse down to that of 12/1 (i.e. $24-ish).
the port tiers following 100/40 are 250/100, 500/200 and 1000/400.
if you try to make 100/40 “baseline affordable”, you’ll cannibalise the subscriber base of the next highest port, 250/100.
if you lower the port price of 250/100 to stem the loss of subscribers to 100/40, you’ll cannibalise the 500/200 port, and so on.
so, the only way 100/40 will ever be “baseline affordable” in 2028 under the $50bln NBN is if there is MASSIVE UPTAKE of the highest ports, 1000/400 (in particular) as well as 500/200.
massive uptake and demand for 1Gbit connections is what is required to stem the migration of subscribers to the slower ports in response to the downwards “price-pull” from 100/40.
how likely do you think that is?
NBNco’s projecting something like 18% of subscribers on 500/200 and 2% on 1000/400 in 2028.
if you push 100/40 down to “baseline affordability” (i.e. minimal revenue for NBNco), you’d easily need at least 60% of subscribers on 500/200 and faster to allow NBNco to reach its revenue target.
(all this is ignoring the complicated matter of the CVC charge.)
“there’s no current day equivalent to that.”
Wow, that sure is some insight. Now tell us about how before roads there were no roads, oh wait that’s alain’s line lol…
“your underlying assertion is that 100/40 will become “baseline affordable” in 2028.”
Ok now as well as alain I am now asking you the question, it is simple, pay attention: My prediction is that the wholesale cost of a 100/40mbps connection will be cheaper in 2028 (that’s your year btw) than it is today do you agree or disagree? To quote you: “i’m not going to let you weasel your way out of this.”
*My prediction is that the wholesale cost of a 100/40mbps connection will be cheaper in 2028 (that’s your year btw) than it is today do you agree or disagree?*
i reckon you’re full of shit – do you agree or agree?
NightKaos, Tosh was talking about the CVC charges, which has nothing got to do with the AVC charges that deals with the GPON. The CVC is an artifical rate that is charged to the RSP, not the customers on an individual basis
If you are going to criticize someone for not understanding networking, then you should have a good look at yourself. CVC charges have NOTHING got to do with GPON, or how much can go through GPON. CVC is a charge that gets applied for every bit of data that travels from NBNCo to the RSP
deteego,
can you please clarify this:
under 2.5Gbit GPON
(i) is it feasible for all 32 premises to have 1Gbit PIR connections?
(ii) is it feasible to offer 100Mbit baseline as well as 250/500/1000Mbit connections as well?
Yes and yes.
i believe you – i was just hoping for a 2nd opinion. :P
oh, i finally got it – duh :P
a small conceptual error on my part. with 2.5Gbit GPON and top speed tier of 1Gbit, any artificial CVC contention higher than 13:1 makes the underlying technical contention a not binding constraint. (and i think that was kind of what deteego was getting at, i.e. distinction between artificial and technical contention.)
but in terms of the specific context of the meta-discussion, you’re absolutely right. thanks for picking up on my simple conceptual error. (and it’s nothing as complicated as “go read about GPON network mass deployment strategies” blah blah blah… as you make it out to be.)
Yes, precisely, what I meant by looking up how large scale deployments work is note that, in the non-commercial sector, that contention ratios of around 20:1 are typical, and they can often get as high as 100:1. I apologise if that made it sound harder than it is.
Yes, in that, there is a point, but I was merely pointing out to him that we were not discussing that. And to be honest, it all comes under the overreaching problem of, you guessed it, the CVC being too gorram high, which I agree with.
Gee Tosh, how ironic you speaking of Die Hard 2 (and your previous nasty name calling of your correspondent) because the outcome of all of this also reminds me of a movie too… Lethal Weapon 2.
Remember the Consuls words… “Who’s the d*ckhead now then, eh”?
;-)
Deetego, no he wasn’t. Read it again. He did talk about CVC yes, but in what I was replying he kept refering to the 78Mbps worst case bandwidth for GPONs.
I suggest you be more careful next time you try to step into a conversation like this to make sure you understand what is being said.
*You realise that the prices are likely to decline.*
(i) initially, there will be a step jump in costs: $16 ULL vs $24 AVC + $20/Mbit CVC.
(ii) the fall in AVC charges is predicated on subscribers migrating up to more expensive port speeds (hence, spending more on AVC on average).
(iii) the fall in CVC charges is predicated on subscribers spending more on CVC. (notice in Exhibit 8.16 that the CVC charge remains constant even when average data usage quadruples from 30GB/mth to 120GB/mth.)
(iv) with ADSL, Telstra carefully increases quotas across the spectrum of plans when it can be assured that subscribers won’t drop down to a cheaper plan from their current plan, i.e. we get more data for the same price point. with the NBN, we have to pay more to get more data (subscribers have to migrate up the value chain to more expensive plans):
ref. Exhibit 8.16:
$20/Mbit x 30GB/mth = 600*
$7.50/Mbit x 600GB/mth = 4,500
the unit price of capacity only falls if we spend more in absolute dollar terms. so it’s not really getting “cheaper”. if you ring up Dell now and order ten U3011 monitors, they will do you an immediate deal of $1,500 per unit instead of paying $2000 for a single unit.
CVC is a bit like Groupon ;) you get a regular spaghetti bolognaise for only $7.50 instead of $20, if you bring 19 friends along to the restaurant and you shout them dinner. isn’t that a cute analogy… awwww ;) we’ll all go broke if we have to order 20 plates of spaghetti every time we dine.
(vi) AVC and CVC charges will have to RISE from current proposed levels, if:
(a) the eventual costs of building the NBN turn out to be higher than budgeted;
(b) consumer uptake in terms of both #SIO’s and $ARPU/mth (mix of SIO’s, average CVC spend) are lower than budgeted;
(c) the cost of debt funding is higher than expected
if you follow the news on ongoing infrastructure cost blow-outs, rising costs of living, mortgage stress and sovereign debt crises, all three scenarios are likely to work against NBNco’s “well-laid plans”.**
* i know the GB/mth should be expressed in Mbit/s but i’m just trying to spotlight the proportional changes involved (which aren’t affected).
** i share Bruce Willis’ sentiments about “well-laid plans” in Die Hard 2 ;)
*In fact, even if they remain at exactly the same wholesale price, when you factor in inflation, they’ll be 30% cheaper in a decade. if incomes increase in line with inflation, the real cost to access the NBN will be bordering on extremely cheap.*
(i) if inflation is 3% p.a. and your income rises 3% p.a., your real income hasn’t changed.
(ii) NBNco’s numbers only stack up if we spend more and more (see above):
600GB/mth ~ 18Mbit/s
CVC = 18Mbit/s x $7.50/Mbit (zero burst capacity) = $135/mth
AVC + CVC = $173/mth in 2028 (say) dollars
NBN WHOLESALE cost (excl NNI) = 173 / (1.03)^17 ~ $105/mth in 2011 dollars.
now, 600GB/mth…. 12GB per movie (say)… ~ 50 movies… $2 per movie (say)… ~ $100 in content costs (fair?)
extremely cheap? i think not…. “cheap” and “NBN” are oxymoron.
@Myne
correcting the decimal places:
600GB/mth ~ 1.8Mbit/s
CVC = 1.8Mbit/s x $8.75/Mbit (zero burst capacity) = $15.75/mth
AVC + CVC = $53.75/mth in 2028 (say) dollars
NBN WHOLESALE cost (excl NNI) = 53.75 / (1.03)^17 ~ $32.52/mth in 2011 dollars.
right now, ISPs are offering 1TB plans based on $16/mth ULL. under the NBN, 17 years from now, “600GB plans” will still cost at least twice what ISPs are currently paying for 1TB ($16/mth ULL), i.e. $33/mth in today’s dollars.
that is NOT “getting cheaper”.
** whoops.. that wasn’t Bruce Willis.. that was Samuel Jackson’s wise words about “well-laid plans” ;)
One of many elementary mistakes, but please continue..for the entertainment value!
Not that you pointed out the other elementary mistakes ,confusing Willis with Jackson was a elementary mistake was it and was a key fact underpinning the post, but of course all those figures caused you to go into overload (again) time to hit the F1 key with the macro ‘FUD’ and F2 with’!!!!!’ multiple times and exit left.
LOL…
Those figures and that epic spiel are all just lovely …count how many time your mate actually wrote CVC or AVC, phew! It’s almost like he was serious and not just toeing the party line…!
But NBNCo have said they will review such pricings, if they have the mix wrong… so that is all nothing but grandstanding FUD. So he may as well have written about KFC, because…
Which part of NBNCo’s, ok, if we have the mix wrong we’ll review it, is so hard to comprehend?
Plus as usual you lot are happily playing contradictions…
You say, the NBN is a waste, bad investment/miserable, white elephant ROi, blah, blah… But then… you criticise them for the pricings they have come up with to both be as fair as possible but also “increase that very ROI you say is too low”… shakes head!
You bozos and your damned if they do/don’t idiot logic, are priceless, in a pitifully humorous sort of way, seriously!
Look unlike you who will not budge on what the party tells you or your own wallet dictates, I do not have such afflictions… As such, I DO NOT want Aussies to be unable to afford the NBN, if so, what is the point!
But on the flip-side rather than the hang ’em/posse mentality you have, if you indeed are not a stooge to the far right, why not give em a go? If you were fair dinkum, you would…
Bugger, it is turning into an NBN thread.
Yeah funny that seeing this is the thread headline.
‘PCRange CEO moved suburbs to get NBN fibre’
No, there are NBN threads and then there are NBN threads. Do you see the difference now ?
I think I know what you mean, you would prefer the thread to stay on the wizzo techo geek wanky stuff about the NBN, rather than the boring political stuff like is all this economically viable?
:)
If PCRange put more effort into their modems instead of releasing crap, some of us might be able to get more speed and reliable ADSL………. How is it possible that a newer modem syncs at less speed than an older one……….
Good on Raaj. If the electricity in my area went down often, or the pipes in the street burst, I’d move house. Shitty Internet access is no different. I thank baby Jesus each day for my 100mbit Telstra cable connection.
At the moment, I’m downloading from newsgroups at nine megabytes per second, with Speedtest showing 95.5Mbps downstream and 35.5 upload speed.
I can’t help wondering why anyone would want to download newsgroups at that speed. It’s not like anyone can read at that speed, nor even have time to view the pictures. I thought the whole idea of newsgroups was that they ran as a trickle-feed in the background.
Of course a newsgroup server might make a convenient test machine that actually sits in the POP and tests the line speed, but go and try downloading something from overseas and see how it goes.
Besides that, I thought we already heard from Internode saying they were not intending to provision a full 100M at each POP because the CVC charges didn’t warrant it. I have to presume this is some sort of special case or something and therefore completely unrepresentative. Very easy to have a fresh new network with only a handful of customers and then test local traffic only. Big difference translating that to a network with lots of customers competing for space on overseas cables.
Internode is still running on test price plans, which have no AVC or CVC charges.
On the other hand with my ADSL2+, I Would constantly have my radio streams buffering and when I stream some sports the dreaded spinning circle would appear. Of all the testing today no buffering. So that’s a huge plus. My ADSL2+ connection was 16.5Mbps down and 1Mbps up.
How many radio streams was he listening to in order to flood a 16M link? I smell something stinky.
Standard DAB broadcast quality is 128k bits per second, or enhanced quality is 160k, plus some over head for packet headers, heck give it 256k per stream. That still means you can fit more than 60 radio streams simultaneously into a 16M link. Does this guy listen to the news in 60 different languages simultaneously?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_Audio_Broadcasting
I am totally sus about this testing.
“I am totally sus about this testing.”
Well it’s not testing in the true sense of testing applications across a sample population using different speeds on the NBN from different ISP’s and then comparing them with a sample population using the same applications on ADSL2+ and HFC across a number of ISP’s.
This paticular ‘test’ is more in the line of a marketing cross promotion exercise.
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