news Murdoch-owned newspaper The Australian has published another pre-emptive article attacking Labor’s unreleased National Broadband Network policy, this time focusing around what the outlet intimated was a complete lack of demand for high-speed 1Gbps broadband services in Australia.
Labor’s original model for the NBN involved deploying a near-universal Fibre network all the way to Australian homes and business premises, offering up to 1Gbps speeds. However, citing cost and speed of deployment concerns, the Abbott and Turnbull administrations have substantially modified this model since taking power in 2013, integrating the legacy copper and HFC cable networks owned by Telstra and Optus, in a so-called ‘Multi-Technology Mix’ model.
Although it has not yet announced its new NBN policy, it is not expected that Labor would return to its original Fibre to the Premises model if it wins the election. Instead, the party is expected to announce it will support a FTTdp model in which Fibre is extended to customers’ driveways but not their actual premises, as well as maintaining the existing HFC cable extension plans.
This model promises to deliver most of the cost benefits of the Coalition’s MTM model, while also delivering significantly enhanced speeds. However, it will also leave those on HFC cable with questions about long-term upgrades.
Despite the fact that Labor has not yet announced its new NBN policy, last week The Australian heavily criticised Labor over its expected model.
And this morning the Murdoch outlet went further, publishing another article directly questioning the need for the 1Gbps made possible by Labor’s model. Delimiter recommends readers click here to read the full article. Its headline is “Federal Election 2016: No paying customers for top-speed NBN”.
The newspaper’s article relies on information from the NBN company to show that there are no current paying customers at the 1Gbps speed tier, as well as noting that most customers have chosen lower NBN speed tiers at 12Mbps to 25Mbps.
This is a view previously put by the chief executive of the NBN company as well, Bill Morrow, who believes it is more important to get fast broadband infrastructure rolled out quickly to more people, rather than focusing on providing the best-possible infrastructure over the long-term.
Crikey journalist Josh Taylor pointed out this morning on Twitter that some of the information contained in the article was months old, with the NBN company stating in Senate hearings in October last year that it had about 37 1Gbps customers at that stage, with “most” being trial customers.
Fact-checking
Delimiter believes that the raw figures quoted by The Australian are broadly correct.
However, it also appears that the Murdoch outlet’s article this morning did not contain the full story or context with respect to the NBN company’s 1Gbps services.
For example, it appears that there are a number of ISPs currently trialling 1Gbps retail services on the NBN, but that none have yet launched such a service commercially.
This means that retail customers are currently unable to purchase the 1Gbps services, limiting uptake to zero. If commercial 1Gbps services launched, at least some percentage of take-up would definitely exist on the NBN.
Secondly, the NBN company’s pricing model — which sees ISPs charged a ‘Connectivity Virtual Circuit’ charge to supply capacity to customers — is also cost-prohibitive in terms of getting areas connected to 1Gbps speeds, unless a large number of customers sign up.
This means that retail ISPs such as Telstra, Optus and TPG are currently disincentivised to provide 1Gbps services to customers, due to the escalating cost.
This was a fact highlighted recently by one of Australia’s most successful and experienced technology entrepreneurs, Stephen Baxter, who in April published an extraordinary analysis of the NBN company’s technical model, highlighting the stupidity of speed tiers on a fiber network which offers essentially unlimited speeds.
Baxter pointed out that if the Government truly wanted to use the NBN project to unlock innovation in Australia, the company should provide only one speed tier — the maximum.
He pointed out that when telcos deployed networks such as the NBN, the cost of operating this infrastructure would be the same, regardless if it operated at 1 percent of capacity or 95 percent. The only extra costs relating to downloads come when users pull data from outside the network — usually from outside Australia.
“If you build and own a network it has a fixed cost to operate – so why would you bother to set speed hurdles for customers to access it?” wrote Baxter. “… why do we have access product speeds such as 12/1, 25/5, 50/20, 100/40 when the network operational cost for everybody to run at top speed (up to 80Mbit/sec on FTTH) does not increase?”
The need for 1Gbps broadband speeds also appears to be increasing globally.
For example, last week American telco AT&T announced a sizable expansion of its 1Gbps Fibre to the Premises network throughout a number of major cities in the US. The move is believed to be aimed at least partly at keeping up with Google’s Fiber platform, which is expanding 1Gbps demand across the US. Similar network expansion efforts are also being seen in other countries globally.
In addition, in Australia a number of prominent members of Australia’s technology community believe 1Gbps speeds to be an essential component of growing the nation’s digital economy. “If you want to avoid a two speed economy, you need a one speed internet. Fast. Gigabit fiber. No debate on that,” said Atlassian co-founder Mike Cannon-Brookes on Twitter in March. Cannon-Brookes is one of Australia’s richest and most successful technology entrepreneurs.
opinion/analysis
Two more anti-Labor NBN attack pieces from The Australian this morning. Buckle in, I suspect we’re going to be getting a few of these per week for the next several months until the Election is held.
Image credit: World Economic Forum, Creative Commons
MT certainly has the LNP Newsletter writers fired up.
Not MT, Rupert. MT takes direction from Rupert as well…
My bad :)
This, and Rupert needs the real NBN delayed until 2020 when he can walk away from his very expensive HFC contract. By this time Foxtel will have in theory adapted to an IP delivery model to compete with Netflix et Al.
No demand for gigabit speeds, ok, so finally GimpCo will stop hyping these speeds on HFC…
Also not surprising The Australian is now using mental midget arguments.
“Also not surprising The Australian is now using mental midget arguments”
They have to appeal to their readership. Check the comments for some real mental midgets.
So I’ve got my shovel, which suburb do we start on first to dig-up Foxtel HFC and lay down some copper?
It’s being fumbled in Australia, but the drama and debate doesn’t change anything about what’s happening overseas. According to Deloitte:
“we forecast about 600 million subscribers may be on networks that offer a Gigabit tariff as of 2020, representing the majority of connected homes in the world.”
http://www2.deloitte.com/global/en/pages/technology-media-and-telecommunications/articles/tmt-pred16-telecomm-dawn-of-the-gigabit-internet-age.html#full-report
“Dawn of the Gigabit Internet Age.” Within the next three and a half years.
In a few years time, the fastest speeds available on brand new FTTN connections in Australia will be slower than the slowest speeds available to millions of people around the world, including to many people in New Zealand.
I wonder what the government will say then ?
“it’s all $opposition_party’s fault”
no responsibility taken for it.
When the 25/5Mbps NBN Fixed wireless first became available here we were getting close to full speeds 24/7.
2 years down the track we’re now on 50/20Mbps & lucky to get up to 5 Mbps evenings or weekends regardless of which provider we choose.
Perhaps its not that we don’t want those gigabit speeds,we just don’t want to continue paying top dollar for those Faster & Cheaper UP TO services that are often next to useless when we actually want to use them so may as well settle for a cheap 12/1Mbps plan that delivers the same results as we’re getting now.
And this is an extremely important point – if the infrastructure is incapable of providing a service at a particular performance level customers will downgrade their product choice to something the network is actually capable of achieving. Otherwise they’re paying for something they aren’t getting. You can’t then use the distribution of products customers are choosing as an argument for what services you *should* be providing, when they have absolutely no choice in the matter in the first place. Well, you can, but you’re being utterly deceitful because it’s a logical fallacy.
Well there might be little demand in cohort of people who still read print media.
Well on the positive side it’s in the run at a massive loss Australian with bugger all readers so it is mostly ignored (they claim 310,00 but more realistic figures place it at 135k, about 0.5% of the population). Seeing that it’s effectively a propaganda sheet for the rightest wing of the Liberal party it’s better to just ignore them and laugh as they continue to hemorrhage money.
It’s just a pity the rest of the nation’s press treat them as real news. But the press are a pack of sheep.
Yep. The only way they kept it going was to keep Foxtel in News Corp rather than putting it with the money making side of the business (21st Century Fox) to help bail it out. Telstra wants out though and is pushing for an IPO of Foxtel (http://www.smh.com.au/business/media-and-marketing/rupert-murdochs-news-corp-and-telstra-delay-8-billion-foxtel-float-plans-20160413-go5j6r.html), so it’ll be interesting to see what develops there.
Negative gearing?
Panama?
With a 10 Gbps downstream and up to 1 Gbps upstream (depending on how they configure the backend infrastructure) I think the “long-term” is a fair way off though Renai.
http://www.cablelabs.com/innovations/featured-technology/
But nobody needs those speeds Tinman! (Is what we are told when it comes to FTTP…. only to then be told of all these advances in copper/HFC that give the speeds we apparently don’t need on FTTP).
:-)
Absolutely can’t wait for the 10gbps that DOCSIS will delivery to my connection, the neighborhood, and the suburb next to me! That’s going to be phenomenal speeds if no one else uses cable!
The good news is that print media is still a ‘dead man walking’ with Internet speeds at 256kbps. And Foxtel is a ‘dying man running’ with Internet speeds at 6Mbps. Corporations, people, and animals fight to their last breath when threatened with their own mortality so, yes, the Opinion / Analysis comment is right on the money.
Demand for gigabit will only go up from zero. Demand for Netflix will likely go up as (any flavour of) the NBN is rolled out. Demand for print media is on its way down to zero, and demand for Foxtel will probably go down in some kind of proportion to Netflix going up.
The future is almost entirely a bleak outlook for Murdoch’s empire, hence the screeching and wailing from those suckling at its teat.
At a price of A$ 17,500 for 1Gbs on a CVC best effort class-4, I doubt any RSP is keen to pick this up.
A speed-related financial instrument on a last mile access solution has not been implemented anywhere in the world. And it will not be implemented in the world in the future.
Reasoning being, it doesn’t make sense. Fibre is not speed based, it is connection based. That is why the majority of fibre internet service providers in the world offer unlimited 1Gbs services. Some go beyond that with 10Gbs. Not this ridiculous pricing model of NBN Co.
In the rest of the world IRR’s are achieved of close to 20% when 50% of the End Users is signed up in the first five years. In Australia we debate much lower numbers as if it is normal. It isn’t.
Frank, got any references for those IRR numbers? Very interesting!
The rest of the world isn’t building a publically owned incumbent, of course the IRR will be different would be different for private enterprise.
> A speed-related financial instrument on a last mile access solution has not been implemented anywhere in the world
what do you mean ? Many overseas operators offer speed tiers. e.g. http://www.verizon.com/home/fios-fastest-internet/ – 50, 100, 150, 300 and 500 Mb/s symmetric (prices from $50 to $270 per month)
He’s talking about last mile access. For example, Telstra don’t have different copper products, they just sell a copper line. What speed you get is not dependant on the money you pay.
I can think that almost every school in the country that would love Gigabit fibre to the school, mine included. I’m sure that hospitals and large office complex would jump at it too. But seriously, when there is no product to sell, it’s very hard to sign up to buy the product.
At the end of the day, the entire rest of the world will be gigabit capable by 2020. At that point, developers will rightly consider an internet connection in that range as a default requirement for their technology.
http://www2.deloitte.com/global/en/pages/technology-media-and-telecommunications/articles/tmt-pred16-telecomm-dawn-of-the-gigabit-internet-age.html#full-report
“we forecast about 600 million subscribers may be on networks that offer a Gigabit tariff as of 2020, representing the majority of connected homes in the world”
Sure, make 100/40 as cheap as 12/1 at the same quotas from a number of ISP’s and there will be a ‘demand’ for it.
I agree with this.
Plans should be differentiated with quota, not speed tiers and quota.
Finally Real ….. U nailed it!
Speed tiers is exactly why Labor should take 100% of the blame for the current state of the NBN.
* Labor went to the 2007 election with a FTTN policy.
* Labor abandoned FTTN in 2008 when Telstra wouldn’t cooperate
* Labor went with FTTP as a face saving measure but predicted that 50% would connect at 12Mbps & in 2
* In response to Google Fibre, Labor announced just prior to the 2010 election that NBN would be 1Gbps capable, but omitted to mention that in 2026 less than 1% would connect at 1Gpbs.
Labor hyped the game changing applications yet constructed a financial model for the NBN that meant only a tiny elite would have access to those applications.
More of the Mathew Fairy Tales…
Whether they are fairy tales or not, speed tiers are a relic from Labor, what he fails to admit, is that the Coalition has had nearly 3 years to do something about it, and they also don’t.
So, who is worse? The people that put in the flawed system in the first place, or the people who currently control said flawed system, have the power to change it, but refuse to?
Obviously neither NBN Co Coalition or Labor, and most likely Labor MK2 NBN Co if it happens would agree with you that it is a flawed system.
You’re right, they probably won’t, and at which time I will chide them equally for it.
But as it stands, they aren’t in power, the Coalition are still the Government, so lambasting Labor for something they have yet to do “again” when we haven’t even had an election yet seems a little disconnected from reality.
It is not if what you claim is true or not, it’s that you keep repeating the same thing over and over and over. Have you said it a million times yet? Seriously, stop it and seek help
Rewriting history AGAIN Mathew? You really can’t help yourself can you? “If it can’t conform to the LNP songsheet, let’s make it so”. Labor abandoned FTTN when an INDEPENDENT (something MT doesn’t know the meaning of) panel of INDUSTRY (something MT wouldn’t know despite being that industry’s minister for 2 years) experts recommended FTTP. Why did they recommend FTTP? Because of the difficulties in implementing FTTN along with it’s near term obsolescence. So it wasn’t a “face saving measure” nor was it because “Telstra wouldn’t cooperate”.
Instead the LNP have embarked on the lunacy of “band aiding” an old network, for nearly the same cost as replacing it with FTTP. What can we look forward to? The “band aided” network getting replaced in the near future because it won’t be fit for purpose very soon. The LNP attitude is to stick it’s fingers in it’s ears and go “lalalala” when that cost is even muttered under anyone’s breath. Why? Because it absolutely ruins their argument about fiscal responsibility. They are wasting every bloody single cent spent on FTTN, pissing it down the gurgler, while LNP fanbois are standing on the sideline applauding.
I’m not rewriting history. Building a FTTP network won’t deliver 1Gbps to everyone in Australia unless you remove speed tiers.
As for independent, it is common knowledge that governments appoint advisors to give them recommendations that they want.
Labor never said they were delivering 1Gps to everyone in Australia, they said they’d deliver fibre to 93% ofn Australia.
Yes speed tiers would always exist. Just like it does with ADSL/ADSL2+.
Eventually prices will go down and make the higher tiers affordable to most of the population.
This same scenario wouldn’t be as applicable if the technology is not designed for future growth.
Having UTP as the last run, will prevent those last tiers eventually being available in future.
HFC, though with higher throughput with DOCSIS3.1 pushing the boundaries more with Coaxial. In the future it will eventually start choking up to the same limitations that exist now (being a shared line and higher demands to come).
It is better to just simply go FTTP in the first place and the main bottleneck would be adjusting/upgrading TX/RX equipment when the time comes. (This is a lot more long term than with mixed technology) ie Futureproof.
We are not guaranteed to get the 1GBps or even higher (heck even 10GBps or 100GBps) straight up, but the option is/will be there.
Not everyone in Australia will want 1Gbps…but access to 1Gbps for everybody is crucial. Do you understand?
“Labor went with FTTP as a face saving measure but predicted that 50% would connect at 12Mbps”
And those predictions have been way off with almost half of those connecting to higher plans instead.
“In response to Google Fibre, Labor announced just prior to the 2010 election that NBN would be 1Gbps capable, but omitted to mention that in 2026 less than 1% would connect at 1Gpbs.”
As opposed to now, where if MTM rollout continues on its current course, 0% would be capable of connecting at 1Gbps in 2026.
Hotcakes,
And those predictions have been way off with almost half of those connecting to higher plans instead.
You mean almost half are in the next higher plan, between them 12/1 at 33% and 25/5 at 47% account for 80%.
25/5 seems to be the popular speed trend, taking users away from 100/40 and 12/1.
Most likely because the price differential between 12/1 and 25/5 is not substantial.
Interestingly the same goes for fixed wireless, 83% are on 25/5.
“You mean almost half are in the next higher plan”
First of all there’s no possible way for you to know that and second of all that detracts from my original statement in no way whatsoever.
How embarrassing for you, Alain.
Who cares alain,
You suggested only a few years back that FTTP wasn’t (wouldn’t be) needed because ADSL speeds were good enough for the majority (or similar wording)… didn’t you?
You also suggested that wireless only homes would eat into FTTP revenues so much that FTTP wouldn’t attain it’s financial goals (or similar) … didn’t you?
Yet now you scoff at speeds well beyond what many Aussies receive on “good enough” ADSL (I’m on up to 20, but receive sub 5) so…
And as for wireless, if it was a threat to faster FTTP, it’s now a “absolutely major threat to the even slower FttN”, making MTM even less viable, using your previous claims.
Q. So spending $45B-$70B (depending upon the adult) for speeds we don’t need via marginally better MTM with the added pressure of more competitive wireless and waiting at least another 4 years after the promised finish date, is what?
A. fucking ridiculous.
Correct.
You’re welcome
25/5 ‘seems’ to be the popular trend – because the entity that holds the majority of the market (Telstra) hides their higher tier speeds from consumers at signup, leaving the ‘standard’ 25/5 tier that most non net savvy folk will sign contract on. (its arguable that their speed boost tiers are excessively costed as well, from memory you add +$20 and +$30 for 50/20 and 100/40 tiers, respectively).
if you stick your torch under a metal bucket, its not really hard to see why people dont see the light….
both outright plan costs are better with other providers, with tier jumps costing less, and the alternate tiers are not hidden. its a market share and marketing problem.
your point on the small price differential of 12/1 and 25/5 might have merit, but with the expected change in CVC pricing an isp can either provide more quota, or use the same as now but bump speed tiers – if, say, Telstra could be persuaded to start pushing 50/20 in this manner, you would likely see a big difference in those numbers, and fairly quickly.
you have to account for distortive market effects here; and in comparable societies (with similar technological motivation and early adopter tendencies) absent those distortive effects you clearly see higher takeup… just look at NZ. we are an outlier on this; and its worth asking the question, why?
“between them 12/1 at 33%” ie which was far less than the original NBN Co predicted when they forecast their 8% return (not a -ve one since we’re now talking about righting off bits of the copper NBN)
The decrease therefore means people on higher than expected ie paying more (which would also explain their higher than expected returns until the copper mob took over).
25/5 isn’t a popular speed tier its a popular price point. Bulk of current ADSL plans sit at exactly the same price point to.
What Alternate just cannot understand (I don’t know why) is that it is essential that everyone has the choice to access 1Gbps in the very near term. Sure, not everyone will take it to start, but it’s the choice that allows growth…and since the rest of the world will have that choice, it is doubly important that we are allowed it too.
Phew I was feeling lonely without the trusty 50/12 spiel…
“Labor went to the 2007 election with a FTTN policy.”
Yes they did, and the then Coalition government at the time called it FRAUDBAND and derided it and now roll it out, go figure. But the initial RFP clearly stated FTTN or FTTP…
Labor abandoned FTTN in 2008 when Telstra wouldn’t cooperate
Yes they did… ooh also following expert advice. And agreed Telstra wouldn’t cooperate, as they refused to even more so with the previous government, who couldn’t get an agreement for FTTN or even get ADSL2 switched on. They even ended up going with OPEL, err, as a “face saving measure”.
So do we do as you did and blame one political entity? I’d suggest it’s Telstra’s doing more so than either political party.
Labor went with FTTP as a face saving measure but predicted that 50% would connect at 12Mbps …
No as mentioned the initial RFP mentioned FttN or FttP…
As for the estimation… FFS, you were told umpteen times it was conservative and lo and behold, years later you yourself even brought figures to the discussion to prove us right and prove yourself wrong… but yes they did estimate that “conservatively”… much like the current government estimated $29.5B/all Aussies by 2016, yet you never mention that and harp back to what the other’s did (sounds familiar)…
I know which is the worst, most harmful, most mismanaged estimation and which ought to be commented on for years as you have done and it’s not your 50/12…
In response to Google Fibre, Labor announced just prior to the 2010 election that NBN would be 1Gbps capable, but omitted to mention that in 2026 less than 1% would connect at 1Gpbs.
Err, another estimation… you really don’t get this estimation thing do you…? Shall I repost the $29.5B/to all Aussies by 2016, oh I just did.
Thanks once again for groundhog day Mathew and for more than ever showing your true colours there.
You’re welcome
@Mathew: In case you hadn’t noticed, all your points became irrelevant once Turnbull commenced his NBN Demolition task & switched it to his “Faster & Cheaper for all by 2016 MTM.”
The present financial model for MTM is all Turnbull’s baby.
(Perhaps it desperately needs a nappy change?)
typical misleading headlines.
“Federal Election 2016: No paying customers for top-speed NBN”
should read
“Federal Election 2016: top-speed NBN, prices customers out of the market”
Or FTTN can’t reliably provide 100/40 like FTTP so nobody bothers paying for it.
Considering
FTTP 100Mbps 15%
FTTB 100Mbps 14%
FTTN 100Mbps 7%
And when you consider that the 7% of FTTN customers, whilst paying for 100Mbps, may not be getting 100Mbps. The 15% of FTTP paying for 100Mbps WILL be getting 100Mbps.
well on FttN you can pretty well guarantee 50% of the user’s won’t be connecting at high speeds even if they wanted to as the laws of physic’s sadly kick in (ie the copper is too long for it to be possible).
Yep.
As Choice said in it’s NBN article:
So 50-60% of folks on FttN (and using 1Km as the maximum loop length) would physically be unable to get 100/40.
Steve Baxter mentioned 50/20 when he talked about speed tiers. It was available when Labor was in but I do not see 50/20 being offered by any of the ISPs anymore. It is either 12/1, 25/5 or 100/40. Is this the LNP plan to create a huge price gap so everyone on NBN picks 25/5 which they then use as their proof that there is no need for 100mbps? I definitely need 100mbps. I’m on the 100/40 plan right now and I use most of it. It is impossible to work with large files without it. The speed has saved me so much time because things takes seconds and minutes rather than hours. I would not go back to anything slower.
Almost no one chose 25/10 or 50/20, so providers stopped offering them. 12/1 was originally the most popular choice, but now 25/5 is.
There are plenty that offer 50/20, just check out Whistleout to search through them.
I’m not convinced this is now accurate. I believe that the loss of the 50/20 tier is directly due to the introduction of FTTN. Very few (if any) FTTN subscribers would actually get 100/40 so would probably flock to the – correspondingly cheaper – 50/20 tier if it was offered. And why wouldn’t you? It’s probably far closer to the speeds you’d actually get. But of course, this would mean a corresponding decrease in ISP income. Far better to ‘flog the dream’ at 100/40 and make sure the small print says ‘up to……’
Its more if you look at the top 3 providers you have to really twist their arms to get them to admit there is an option.
T$ doesn’t tend to let anyone know anything other than 25/5 exists.
TPG being the stingy buggers they are its 1 size fits all so you have 25/5 or 100/40 (you tell them that yes they do offer such a thing lol).
Optus … well it’s Optus, pretty well ho-hum if its not mobile.
i believe skymesh and internode still offer 50/20. large isps like Telstra and Optus are the ones who are dipping out on the 50/20 tier, and as you correctly point out it opens a large gap in value.
i happen to be on the internode 50/20 and i can say i compare when i visit my parents – 860kb/s down and 300kb up…. on Bribie Island, slated for fttn. my mother says she refuses to use NBN and in one sense i fully agree with her and in the other sense im screaming going how can you use such a slow connection, you really should upgrade?
in any case it is definitely painful going back to slow connects – it isnt just mum, one brother has a 2.5 mbit connection. when you have a good connect its easy to forget its utility, until you try to do everything you are used to on what i now regard as simply substandard connections. Average web page sizes are already tipping 2.3megabytes a page; by the time FTTN is supposed to be complete she may as well click a link and go away to make a cuppa….there is so much she could do but she refuses to have a bar of it.
860kb/s down?? Oh man… I wish I could have such speeds.
I live in Woodcroft, SA and I get 140kb/s up, and 40kb/s down – http://imgur.com/YaHwxyX
FTTN due to arrive in September. I’m looking forward to a speed upgrade, but I seriously doubt it’ll be great speeds if even my ADSL connection is this poor. The copper is super-ordinary.
How far are you from the node Rhys? If your node is close, then yeah, you may be in luck! Anywhere “up to” 400-500m you should end up with a speed increase from ADSL. Past that YMMV.
Speeds to homes should be capable of at least 100mbps. Meanwhile, Schools and government facilities get free gigabit internet upgrade. Other people interested, whether it be companies or your own home, pays the NBN to upgrade their infrastructure to gigabit speeds.
Except this makes little sense to artificially limit homes because schools and government offices peak traffic times are typically 9am-4pm.
Home users are typically 5pm-10pm
I just shake my head in total disbelief at the total stuff up of a perfectly good plan of FTTP.
WISH THE OLD FART YANK WOULD BUGGER OFF.
Only way for that to happen would be for a massive decline in Foxtel subscriptions to occur.
Murdoch media.
Says it all really.
Just pure trash publications.
I want Gigabit speed, the Murdock press never asked me, can I get it on ADSL2 ????? because I sure won’t get it on FTTN, BASTARDS
You might want it, but can you afford it? If a few thousand for FoD installation concerns you then it is doubtful you could afford 1Gbps under Labor’s pricing model.
Labor doesn’t have a pricing model…just because you think you can read their minds and “know” what their pricing model would be today, doesn’t mean that it’s true.
You keep making these bizarre assumptions about what Labor is thinking and will do…
Labor created the current financial model and have not indicated that their artificial mix of speed tiers and data charging is a problem.
You’re expecting me to believe that Labor, the party that set the NBN up for failure will correctly identify the cause of that failure and rectify it, especially when changing the charging model involves negotiations with RSPs & ACCC.
Unless Labor explicitly state that their reintroduction of speed tiers was wrong and that under their stewardship speed tiers won’t exist on the NBN then you can assume that speed tiers will remain under Labor and that Labor are happy for <1% to have 1Gbps in 2026.
“you can assume that speed tiers will remain under Labor and that Labor are happy for <1% to have 1Gbps in 2026."
Why wouldn't they be?
Of course, thanks to the Coalition model, closer to 0% will have 1Gbps in 2026.
Indeed Hotcakes…
It seems some can never have a fair, across the board rationale.
Apparently speed tiers are the original NBNCo’s fault, even though tiers have been around before/after …
Just like another here who blames Quigley for (his) MTM debacle or another perpetual walking contradiction who, just as one example of many… was opposed to the FTTP monopoly, demanded wholesale competition and squealed like a stuck pig about being forcibly migrated onto the monopoly FTTP… but he’s no longer concerned about the MTM monopoly, or being forcibly migrated or competition at wholesale level.
These people would be taken more seriously if they had a solid position for all which didn’t flip-flop to (what is obvious) simply suit the politics/ideology.
“Labor created the current financial model and have not indicated that their artificial mix of speed tiers and data charging is a problem”
Why would they do that?
I doubt they have had the data long enough to even put together a plan for nbn. It’s fine that YOU think they should be shouting what you dislike from the rooftops, but that’s probably why you aren’t a politician…or a senior manager at nbn.
“you can assume”
It appears that you are doing all the assuming possible, my experience tells me not to.
What’s Labors 1Gbps got to do with it, last time I looked they weren’t in government and I won’t get it under this government they don’t have it. But surely the NBN has a commercial Gbps product for IT businesses, you know all those up and coming innovative industries that Malcolm keeps harping on about, no they don’t, that would mean without a adequate delivery system Malcolm’s future innovation is all froth and fizzel.
And besides it will cost a lot more than a few thousand for fibre, I’m 1.3 copper kilometres from the exchange. And don’t be so rude to tell me what I can and can’t afford.
Doesn’t even need to be up and coming nor innovative; My last company runs their own national helpdesk/call centre; we’re able to do a lot fixes and support remotely (its cheaper for us cheaper for clients if someone doesn’t need to visit the site … over 4k around the country etc).
You don’t even want to know what kind of price they’re paying for 10/10 Mb connection over ADSL (we had 3 copper connections at head office).
10/10 mb 1:1 contention ~ $500/month maybe up to $1000 depending on location?
“A few thousand” is not the prices being bandied around from NBN Co.
The report months back of the business owner in the Newcastle CBD (who should have been on FTTP anyway because of being in a CBD under the policy announcement for the Coalition), with a quote of $10,000+ for a 350m Fibre Extension.
That is a ridiculous, and quite frankly, bullshit quote just to try to fob someone off instead of service them. Even though being in a CBD meant they were supposed to get FTTP anyway.
what are these technophobe idiots smoking? I want some of it whatever it is, anything that strong that it can make you ignore that the NBN… oops nbn is for the future not for the now must be potent stuff indeed.
Is there demand for gigabit speeds here today, right now, in 2016? For most no, the point of the FTTP approach, Mr Murdoch, was to build the network today, do the messy work of getting the fibre in the ground and connected to buildings, so when the demand does arrive (and it will, need only look at the telecommunication trends of the last 40 years to show there is a clear trend here), the hard part is done, the physical building of the high-speed network. Kinda surprised a senior and experienced businessman like Mr Murdoch seems unable to grasp that.
Dont sell him short, he fully understands it. He’s merely delaying the inevitable, to maintain the business model that serves him so well for just a little longer.
Sad that Australian media could just lie during an election campaign. I know that the UN and others object to laws against false news because it violates the rights of journalists, but all the same it seems like false advertising when you own half the companies that provide access to the Internet, and at the same time push out false reports about how people actually access that same medium.
By the way, personally I would consider 12/1 to be completely unsatisfactory. Have you tried videoconferencing on that? 1 Mbps is unsatisfactory. 2 Mbps up is fine, and I don’t mean to be a pixel snob, but SD streams are just horrible. No wonder people don’t want more upload speed, they have never realised that 2 Mbps uplink speed can really make the two way video thing a very pleasant experience. Once they really realise this basic fact, Australians will not want to go back to ADSL or 12/1 with those upload speeds.
We object to propaganda when it comes from the government but when comes from big business
15 years ago many people were still on dial up, look where we are today. 4k 60FPS streaming is said to need 32Mbps, so in 10 years when a number of households try to consume 4k content like they do with HD content now, plus other bandwidth use from 2 or 3 other users under the same roof, 100Mbps will be merely adequate. The relatively low upload speeds (1Mbps is typical) now are holding us back from vastly improving communication i.e. video calls/chat, especially internationally and doing away with the traditional phone line completely. By the time the bickering over the NBN is done and the thing is finally built, the demand for >100MBps will be in the vast minority, but will be there and only grow, provided pricing is reasonable. Then we’ll have to pay again to rip out part of the network to upgrade to what it should have been from the beginning – FTTP. We have an opportunity to set ourselves up for a good part of this century in telecommunications, and we have politics and shonky corporate deals sabotaging this opportunity.
Currently, a number of ISPs have dropped the ball. A few previously reliable ISPs are now suffering significant slowdowns in peak times and can’t even provide speeds anywhere near the sync speeds. I’m with Internode, not Dodo FFS. For example, if I’m synching at 15Mbps and during peak times the actual bandwidth I’m getting halves, making Youtube in HD impossible unless you stop and wait for it to load ahead a few times, then it is not the connection to the exchange that is the problem. I’m sure those who paid for 100Mbps on the NBN (the lucky ones that have it) who can’t get 1/10th of the max speed at the time of day they want it the most can’t be happy either. The explosion of streaming services has put a strain on ISPs, but they’ve been slow to adapt. It doesn’t look good for users once the NBN expands further and people try to use the service they paid for
According to the LibTrolls, you’re not allowed to talk about multi-user households… Or entertainment… or anything else.
The only thing you’re allowed to use to defend 100Mbit or 1Gbit speeds, is a single application that uses all of that bandwidth… Or at least 50% (depending who you are talking to).
They don’t like talking about multi-user environments, or even multi-application environments, because it entirely destroys their argument that there is no demand in households for higher speeds.
9 years ago I moved into the place I own. I connected to the net, as one does, but had a single PC using that connection. Fast forward to today, there are around 15 devices in the house that might be connected, and generally 3 or 4 of them are doing that at the same time.
That alone means the speeds of ADSL2 arent enough, and thats basically what the Liberals are promising us – ADSL2 speeds.
So glad I live in an FttP area that can grow with my needs over the next decade, not to mention the decades after that.
Oh, the multiple ironies and double standards of the Murdoch propaganda media. The man truly loves flogging a dead legless horse around the racetrack. He wonders why his media services are still losing customers at the rate of five percent a year.
How ever his negative comments on science and technology are not unexpected! Since his entire propaganda media devotes a large amount of blank space to denial of the future impact of global warming.
I guess somethings never change since that fatal case he lost in 1967.
A quick trip to Murdoch Media HQ in Oz. Shows it to one of the greenest low energy user with hyperfast broadband FTTP premises down under in Oz.
Were it not for social media sites like the front page of Reddit around 75% of the Murdoch TV, print and online media would be a blank empty space.
On a lighter note, on Black Friday the 13th of May, 2016, Teltra NBN throttle control load control server imploded taking out NSW including parts of QLD and Victoria as well. In addition on the same day the Telstra DNS servers expired as well. With luck, that may have had an impact on all Murdoch media interweb access.
As with all poorly written propaganda supplied by the idiocracy clowns working at Murdoch Media. All to last clown standing, have completely ignored the excellent Theodor “Seus” Giesel’s book on “How to write first class Propaganda in under two hundred words or less”.
Such is life.
There is no demand for a faultless connection that stays up I believe and doesn’t cost time and money when faulty copper is offline for days, weeks and months I believe.
its an entertainment system for business I believe.
FYI Telstra is dumping Foxtel. All their fraud , thieving our money for nothing.
telstra is the most selfish and fraudulent company in australia, they own the cables and they charge double the amount anyone else get in the rest of the world so feel free to explain how that works champ, data is data and no matter where you live it should be equal but hey not in aus right (because telstra)
YET ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF SILLY OLD PEOPLE KNOWING NOTHING ABOUT THE INTERNET ! gigabit speed is needed and wanted by 100% of people on the internet i have ever spoken to that live in australia. we even joke about saying that one day our google overlords will bless us with fiber ! australia (ausfailia) is the biggest digital joke to anyone that knows anything about the internet and yet again its old people like this that wouldnt know that because they are in their own little world of money and selfishness !
What do you consider old, because in my experience greed has nothing to do with age.
“The newspaper’s article relies on information from the NBN company to show that there are no current paying customers at the 1Gbps speed tier, as well as noting that most customers have chosen lower NBN speed tiers at 12Mbps to 25Mbps.”
Actually not true, data shows “22” 1000/400 customers. A link to the ACCC report likely used for the article provided last month:
https://delimiter.com.au/2016/04/29/productivity-commission-conduct-uso-inquiry/#li-comment-733240
“Crikey journalist Josh Taylor pointed out this morning on Twitter that some of the information contained in the article was months old, with the NBN company stating in Senate hearings in October last year that it had about 37 1Gbps customers at that stage, with “most” being trial customers.”
Josh Taylor tweeting missed the largest exposure of NBNCo actual customer data as well? Then I don’t feed him data anymore.
“Delimiter believes that the raw figures quoted by The Australian are broadly correct.”
See above, incontestable. Amazing such an report passed without analysis here, appears most here were too busy discussing node photos. However, I jotted down a few observations including:
https://delimiter.com.au/2016/05/02/worst-worst-send-us-node-photos/#li-comment-733840
c) 65 (yes; true) choosing speeds greater than 100mbps.
…
e) 952gbps of provisioned PoIs TC4 CVC capacity, or just 1.05mbps per customer
Renai might like to make a FoI application for NBNCo’s estimate of the cost to deliver Quigley’s pre-election commitment for those 65 customers using 250/100 mbps and above.
Soon I’ll use the ACCC numbers to expose NBNCO’s revenue underperformance v their own forecasts (devastating for Quigley’s 7.1% & Morrows 2.7-3.5% IRR fantasies). Others are invited to performa their own analysis (ROFL;-).
Another article to be dismissed:
“”The myth about the copper being cut off – it is only being cut off for PSTN services. If you have ISDN services for business services, it is not being cut off because the NBN doesn’t have a competing product. It is not a business-grade service. There aren’t business-grade SLAs being offered.
“Even with business-grade internet, if you have Ethernet-over-copper, those services are not being cut off because NBN does not have business-grade offering,” added Milne.”
http://www.crn.com.au/news/local-telco-hits-back-at-carriers-nbn-bullying-tactics-419472
NBNCO (in their 8th year) still not having a business product has been raised here often by myself. However copper being retained for ISDN interesting; Conroy’s kept highest unrecoverable cost rural + ISDN copper. A comical policy folly.
I constantly find it hilarious that you use a summary report as “the largest exposure of NBNCo actual customer data” and then go on to selectively hand pick the stats out of it to sell your crap. Keep it up though, it gives me somewhere to go when I need a chuckle.
Couple of things. First, how the hell do you expect to do an analysis against Quigleys 7.1% ROI when the circumstances to return that never eventuated? Any summary you come up with can only be politically driven. Given the ridiculous delays FttN have had as well, same thing for the existing MTM process as well.
Personally I cant see them hitting even those targets, but you wont know until the project has finished whether it will or not. Until then, its a work in progress, and expectations change.
Secondly, and getting back to the 1 Gbps connections, or as you put it, the 65 over 100 Mbps. Why are they on those connections? Where did they get them, and in what circumstances? You dont know that information, so the statement that they are mostly on trials cannot be dis-proven.
What you dont seem to understand is that plenty of people here have done their own analysis’s of NBN data, to various degrees, and pretty much universally disagree with every single outcome you’ve come up with over the years.
Every single one. Surely that suggests you are the odd one out here, and that there is some flaw in your argument. If it was even a 80/20 split you may have merit, but its not even close.
Anyhow, keep up the good work. You’re always good for a laugh on a rainy day.
+1
Nailed it.
Always good for a laugh in any type of weather really.
“First, how the hell do you expect to do an analysis against Quigleys 7.1% ROI when the circumstances to return that never eventuated? ”
The data provides a very large sample for revenue analysis. Published AR costs use the same techniques. You need to know these techniques.
“Given the ridiculous delays FttN have had as well, same thing for the existing MTM process as well.”
And I did in my post.
“Personally I cant see them hitting even those targets, but you wont know until the project has finished whether it will or not. Until then, its a work in progress, and expectations change.”
Going off the vibe?
Are you new to project planning? Are you seriously promoting the idea projects can only be assessed on completion? Another gem.
“You dont know that information, so the statement that they are mostly on trials cannot be dis-proven.”
Not my statement. Just the actual number (with source).
“What you dont seem to understand is that plenty of people here have done their own analysis’s of NBN data, to various degrees, and pretty much universally disagree with every single outcome you’ve come up with over the years.”
Link to two! Dr Ferrers “analysis” destroyed in this forum in 10 minutes (re-read the squealer’s denials). Looking forward to others;-)
“Every single one. Surely that suggests you are the odd one out here, and that there is some flaw in your argument. If it was even a 80/20 split you may have merit, but its not even close.”
Must be a flaw, just you can’t point to it! Maybe Derek’s sniff test is again the applicable standard (without knowledge or experience little else).
Always happy being the odd man out (confederacy of dunces not my thing), then I know what I’m doing. Being right is not the number of +1 from the dills.
“squealers denials… confederacy of dunces not my thing… without knowledge and experience…from the dills”
Oh the bile, the bile, speaking of squealers, Richard…sound familiar? *sigh*.
Obviously those here tearing you and your disastrously failed MTM plan a new one, have certainly hit a nerve… ROFL.
BTW speaking of bile… being a bean counter and working for a body counting company (or whatever the fuck it is…lol) err, doesn’t equate to epic telecommunications knowledge and experience!
Just sayin’.
But of course Richard you aren’t a dunce we can see that…
After all, if you were a dunce, I’m sure you’d be here claiming to be the biggest and best dunce of all, as you and that HUGE ego do with everything else.
You’re welcome
“The data provides a very large sample for revenue analysis”
Bullshit. The 7.1 ROI for FttP was based around a long term process, something impossible given it was stopped 3 years ago.
“Are you seriously promoting the idea projects can only be assessed on completion? Another gem.”
Not even close. Stating my opinion that MTM is pushing shit uphill if it thinks its going to get any return near its plan. The very nature of the plan is supposedly to encourage private enterprise competition, so what happens to FttN when its inevitably overbuilt by FttP?
If nobody is using FttN, nobody is going to be paying money. No money, no ROI. The very nature of its rollout demands it either has a lifespan far too short to get the investment back, or we’re forced to use third world connections while the rest of the world keeps laughing at us.
Just my opinion.
Your flaw is simple. You dont respect other peoples opinions. It doesnt matter what information is put in front of you, if its not consistent with your personal theory its flawed, or outdated, or in some other way not worthwhile. Want an example? When Labor was in power, the NBN CP’s were worthless and Liberal claims were the Word of God. Suddenly NBN CP’s are gospel. Amazing.
And quite simply your wrong. Unfortunately, you cant see it, and even when history shows how bad an idea MTM was, you still wont see it.
Its quite amusing actually to see that you think you’re so correct when your only evidence is biased and flawed arguments that are only intended to serve the Liberal agenda.
Keep it up, might get a run in next years Melbourne Comedy Festival at this rate. Maybe we should start a GoFundMe to get you there…
And yet your “opinion” here is demonstratively wrong. “Impossible” to analyse the CPs uninformed squeal. Quigley’s FTTP forecast IRR (not ROI as you claim, they’re different; then you wouldn’t know) depends on capex and revenue. His CPs contained forecasts, large samples of actuals are now known (some 2m premises passed).
You fail to understand CP, or the ability to assess performance vs actuals (done all the time; then you’ve no project management experience). Quigley’s CPs exposed very early; to denials by the squealers.
Your “very nature of the plan” is absurd. Both parties have settled on a massively inefficient govt monopoly supplier. We’re back to Telecom, pre-Optus.
“Your flaw is simple. You dont respect other peoples opinions. It doesnt matter what information is put in front of you…”
True, many opinions here I don’t respect. Much like your IRR understanding, most here know very little. When they stray from stalking posts of abuse and bile they expose their ignorance, which Ive been pointing it out for years. You’re just the latest to join the conga line.
Again NBN (all models) is a failure.
See, the “very nature of the plan is absurd” comment shows you have zero respect for other peoples opinions.
FttP to 93% creates a monopoly situation. EVERY connection to FttP would have to go through NBN Co. That creates a very predictable revenue model when 100% of properties, and 100% of businesses that are connected are paying a fee each month via their ISP.
And how do you overbuild it? NBN Co would own every step of the process, and the only upgrades would be at the exchange. So unless something changed to open that up, it was an easy calculation. The connection speed people connected to played no part.
With FttN, the opportunity is going to be there to build FttP to give a better connection, and those builds will be owned by the ISP’s. In other words, NOT NBN Co. So no wholesale connection to the NBN and no default income.
But you disrespect that opinion, and use the narrow minded view that you’re somehow different to everyone else.
So keep it up, you have given the rest of us so many laughs over the years, it’d be a shame to see you stop now. But well done, you’ve driven me away from the conversation again, so count that as a win.
Moron.
Don’t worry GongGav.
Richard lives in a fantasy where there was $B waiting to be invested. When history has shown otherwise.
Indeed GongGav.
I’ve been keeping a list of common logical fallacies that Richard employs, it’s quite the list! And by far, far ahead, his favorite is the first one:
Ad Hominem: An attack, or an insult, on the person, rather than directly addressing the person’s reasons. Name calling is a form of this fallacy.
Appeal to Questionable Authority: Supporting a conclusion by citing an authority who lacks special expertise on the issue at hand.
Straw Person (Extension): Distorting the opponent’s point of view so that it is easy to attack; thus what is attacked is a point of view that does not truly exist.
Either-Or (False Dilemma): Assuming only two alternatives exist when it is possible that there are more than two.
Explaining by Naming: Falsely assuming that because you have provided a name for some event or behavior that you have also adequately explained the event or behavior.
Red Herring (Divert Attention from the Issue): An irrelevant topic is presented to divert attention from the original issue and help “win” an argument by shifting attention away from the argument and to another issue. The fallacy sequence in this instance is as follows: (a) Topic A is being discussed; (b) Topic B is introduced as though it is relevant to Topic A, but it is not; (c) Topic A is abandoned.
Begging the Question (Circular Reasoning): An argument in which the conclusion is assumed in the reasoning.
Hasty Generalization (Oversimplification): A person draws a conclusion about a large group based on experiences with only a few members of the group.
Post Hoc Fallacy: Assuming that a particular event B, is caused by another event A, simply because B follows A in time.
Faulty Analogy: Occurs when an analogy is proposed in which there are important relevant dissimilarities.
Confusing of Cause and Effect: Confusing the cause with the effect of an event or failing to recognize that two events may be influencing each other.
Neglect of a Common Cause: Failure to recognize that two events may be related because of a common third factor.
You could make a drinking game out of it, but you’d be absolutely plastered all the time.
Seems to be a favorite of his.
So that is the term for this one, I did not know, thanks Tinman.
I’ve noticed all the CFKD team do this one though.
Great post overall, +1
Cheers Hubert, I thought it would be instructive for folks to see actually put a name to a lot of Richards logical fallacies.
You may find this interesting as well, it’s a bit more tilted towards the psychology of it.
http://www.emotionalcompetency.com/distortions.htm
And this is why denial is endemic with managers (which may, or may not have any bearing here, but interesting, none the less) and it also points out that denial is not necessarily a bad thing (such as entrepreneurs):
http://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/is-denial-endemic-to-management
Very informative indeed Tinman, thank you…
+1
So what I believe you are actually alluding to “technically”… in describing certain egotistical, narcissistic and mouthy, factually baseless, posters who post here is, in layman’s terms ..
They are dickheads?
I thought so, cheers ;)
More that they are just illogical, but everyone is entitled to their own opinions (just not their own “facts” like our friends :o)).
+1
You’d definitely be in the top three for winning the “Most Amusing Post of the Week” award there Richard!
Lol Richard we all know how you fail with numbers missing in cost in figures claiming Quigley figures came from co13-16 which they hadn’t. You have no credibility which your figures.
Bit slow to post on this, too busy post bile on New Corp articles on Duncan Storrer?
Darren making stuff up (again).
He asked a question. Self-proclaimed numbers guy not so good with words.
Unless your assertion is that you are in fact NOT ‘slow to post on this’, in which case lol.
[Censored for rudeness by Renai]
Fucking fucks! I hope Turdbull and all the old fart Liberal cronies lose this God damned election.
Everyone vote Labor no matter what, at least we might get decent Internet eventually.
Why the heck would Australians and Australian business want to interact with others overseas? Rupert doesn’t live in Australia anyway.
Any freaks sharing a residence or connecting to things overseas are freaks. By disabling video, VOIP, uploads above 5MB and also keeping resolutions to below 480×320 Australia can keep itself connecting to other countries for maybe a few more years, at least on some level.
We could also open shops where you can buy subsidized software and media on storage devices.
Totally agree!
I spent a year or so working from home with an ADSL1 connection… trying to make video calls, etc. having to tell anyone else in the house “don’t use the internet, don’t download/upload… I’m trying to do a video call!”
Oh.. my head hurts! Just give us something better… Way better! Don’t give me a 2nd rate upgrade. I want the best possible!
I’ll take a Gb connection… 100Mb minimum!!!
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