blog The general public might have been blinded by the incredibly inept self-exploding Labor political machine yesterday in all its glory, but the real story from the day’s events for the technology sector was the news that NBN Co is significantly behind — three months behind — in its fibre network rollout effort. The news came as somewhat of a shock, given the company had up until only recently been assuring everyone that everything was on track. Telco analyst Paul Budde writes on his blog today (we recommend you click here for the full post) that the move comes with consequences for the company. Some sample paragraphs:
“What … is at stake here is the credibility of NBN Co and of its leadership. You expect from a professional organisation such as NBN Co that on short term roll out plans they should be able to get it right. Adjusting such a short term plans twice within a year does question the capability of the organisation to proper plan and execute the roll out. It doesn’t really matter what the reason is, labour shortage, vendors issue, environmental issues and so on they are all well known within the context of a short term plan.
The damage is predominantly on the political side as this confirms what the Opposition has been saying all the time, that NBN Co will not be able to deliver on its promises and that its management has serious problems. There is no longer any doubt that, in the case of an election win by the Opposition, the position of Mike Quigley is untenable and that some very serious changes will have to be made to the company.”
I am planning to post some detailed thoughts on this issue possibly early next week, but suffice it to say that I agree with Budde. I sat through an extensive press conference with NBN Co chief executive Mike Quigley only a month ago, and at that stage there was literally no mention of the possibility of delays. A month later, the company appears to have suddenly realised that it’s three months behind schedule. Quigley brushed this credibility issue off yesterday when I questioned him in depth about it, but to my mind this situation goes to the heart of the issue of governance and project management at NBN Co. Like Budde, I believe the NBN is overall a very positive project and the right model, but also like Budde, I am starting to lose faith in the way the project is being run and starting to question its honesty and transparency.
You see what has happened here? My view on things is gradually changing as more evidence comes to light. That’s a little thing I like to call rational thinking.
Image credit: NBN Co
The problem being it is to political any negative is cause for the head kickers(Turnbull, Fletcher and Abbot) to come in and destroy what is a good project being built for the good of the economy and for IT investment in this country.
We can see this manifesting itself for example in Kansas Google Fiber is rolling out and businesses are investing in areas to take advantage yet here people are certain there will be a change of government and the 1Gbps they could have had is gone and what are they getting in its place uncertainty.
If I were a business building or considering building infrastructure for cloud computing I would be stepping back and thinking twice is there any coincidence that Telstra has scaled back and may can a Cloud computing venture work $100 Million and 500 new jobs in Victoria.
The most unfortunate thing about the NBN is there can never be political consensus because even if Labor said it would build FttN identical to the Liberal “Plan” they would not support it and that is a sad state of affairs.
The difference of course between NBN and Google Kansas project is that Google isn’t run by a bunch of incompetent ex-bankers who have no experience in rolling out Fibre-To-The-Home (Quigley included).
When are the NBN’ers going to start holding NBN management to account for NBN management failures on NBN management roll-out targets?
They may not be “incompetent ex-bankers”, but when was the last time Google rolled out a FTTH network before Google Fibre?
I’ll give you a hint: they didn’t, they’re a search engine company.
So you have info on the timeliness of googles rollout? How about Telstra’s tophat rollout?
It may be possible to get this info if you try hard enough but in general.
The answer is you don’t and the reason is google and telstra do not have the shadowy comms minister trying to destroy them.
“The difference of course between NBN and Google Kansas project”
The difference between NBN and the Google fibre project is that Google are not building a FttP network covering 93% of premises in Australia. NBNco are. Hope that helps.
“When are the NBN’ers”
What is an “NBN’er”?
> The difference between NBN and the Google fibre project is that Google are not building a FttP network covering 93% of premises in Australia. NBNco are. Hope that helps.
Lets highlight some other differences:
* Google fibre is direct fibre (not PON) and speed is 1Gbps
* Analysts have calculated that Google fibre would require $120-$140 billion to roll across the entire USA (10x population)
* Google fibre is entirely privately funded
I still think asking Google to tender for the project could be a good idea.
And as I pointed out last time you suggested it the analyst’s calculations had some flawed assumptions like:
* The cost rolling out to the city and regional area will be consistent, it won’t.
* It was assumed that you would continue the rollout at the same pace Google are doing it, and that speeding it up to cover the entire country won’t add costs, unfortunately it will.
Not to mention things that aren’t applicable in Australia like:
* Google has preexisting dark fibre assets in America.
* Google wouldn’t be interested in doing in her because of different regulatory framework and market status.
So, as I tried to say, you could ask them, but they most definitely say no.
> And as I pointed out last time you suggested it the analyst’s calculations had some flawed assumptions like:
> * The cost rolling out to the city and regional area will be consistent, it won’t.
> * It was assumed that you would continue the rollout at the same pace Google are doing it, and that speeding it up to cover the entire country won’t add costs, unfortunately it will.
So Kansas City is probably mid-range. Several cities in the USA would have a higher density.
> Not to mention things that aren’t applicable in Australia like:
> * Google has preexisting dark fibre assets in America.
> * Google wouldn’t be interested in doing in her because of different regulatory framework and market status.
I doubt that Google have dark fibre down every street in Kansas. The majority of the cost is in the “last mile”.
Google are interested because people with a faster connection will access their services more quickly, meaning they can sell more advertising especially higher quality (e.g. larger downloads) advertising and of course cloud services.
> So, as I tried to say, you could ask them, but they most definitely say no.
I think it would depend on what the terms were. On the right terms it could be very attractive. Since Google’s interest is in selling advertising and cloud services, it is in their best interests to maximise the quality of broadband and minimise the cost. Both are good for the consumer.
Actually Matthew.
Googles first FTTP wiring a city was Stamford, a major university city.
Kansas is No 2 and is NOT FTTP to all premises, they require a minimum no of precommitments in an area before they roll out to that area/those customers. They face competition from Cable with it’s Pay TV. (incidentally pay TV subscriptions are falling in the US – Netflix and sporting codes also considering options)
Whilst in Kansas City unlike some other US cities there is no direct financial assistance from the municipality, it is expediated with free access to council property (including existing pits , ducts and conduit.) – an area causing some costs, issues and delays in Aust. Council applications are rubbber stamped once again delays and costs in Aust.
There are also issues with regulatory issues andd open access, appears Google is heading for vertically integrated for economic reasons.
Googles purpose was to show it could be done and encourage other cities and comms companies to emulate them
So that $140Bill is not comparable, nor is their rollout comparable with ours
@Abel Adamski
You are correct the Google rollout is not comparable to ours, Google didn’t require competing infrastructure to be shut down.
*facepalm*
We’ve been over this.
Seriously, why do you keep bringing these points up?
You know the reason for this, you know advantages it presents to NBNCo. You know that most consumers will get a comparable priced and performing service from the switch.
But most of all you completely ignored this:
Kansas is No 2 and is NOT FTTP to all premises, they require a minimum no of precommitments in an area before they roll out to that area/those customers.
That’s right Alain, they’re only going to do a Google Fibre rollout if they can effectively eliminate risk by getting customers to express interest before they proceed.
Forced migration is another risk reduction strategy. Arguably more disruptive, yes, but considering the goal the NBN, and the added expenses and risk not undertaking it might cause, either to the consumer (FTTHoD) or NBNCo (rolling out to a low demand area and getting consumers staying on legacy technology), it’s a necessary one.
‘they’re only going to do a Google Fibre rollout if they can effectively eliminate risk by getting customers to express interest before they proceed. ‘
I’m all for that, imagine what would happen if the NBN Co followed the same strategy, I think they could reach that sort of target easily. :)
Alain
You conveniently ignored the bit about FREE access to pits, ducts and conduits. Massive difference in cost to be defrayed.
However, take your option, as the copper is now NO LONGER the defined and regulated communications medium, access and pricing cannot be regulated.
So you are fine with access and rental costs of the copper rising to cover the maintenance and operational costs of that copper and the associated exchange equipment with a substantially reduced user customer base to cover those costs and return a commercial profit
I agree with NK… you have been saying this same rubbish for years, but when asked should progress occur, which means out with the old in with the new… you have no answer?
“I still think asking Google to tender for the project could be a good idea”
Great. Send them an email. Go on off you go.
My humourous adjoinder to Hubert Cumberdale is
Were not in Kansas anymore Toto. :-)
Mike Quigley was a 15 year veteran of Alcatel Lucent serving as President and COO globally and CEO of US operations. Alcatel Lucent are a major supplier to Telstra and other Australian telcos and provide the bulk of the core transport infrastructure (ie. fibre backbone).
http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/private/person.asp?personId=1122452&privcapId=62070321
His credentials check out. Who the hell are you?
What experience has he got in rolling out Fibre-To-The-Home?
Actually… scratch that… what experience has he got in rolling out ANY form of network or infrastructure program?
He worked for a company that made dial-up modems, that doesn’t make him an infrastructure expert.
Did you even read my link? Seriously, do some research before you post, you are embarrassing yourself.
Alcatel Lucent are much, much more than a modem company and a simple google search would have allowed you to enlighten yourself. To reiterate, they are THE major provider of infrastructure and network equipment to Telstra and other Australian and international telcos. They were instrumental in the deployment of Telstra’s NextIP network and have consistently contributed to enhancements to both their fixed and mobile networks.
The person responsible for “overall responsibility for construction of the National Broadband Network
as well as deployment planning, network operations and IT,” is Ralph Steffens, NBNCo’s Chief Operating Officer (COO):
http://www.nbnco.com.au/assets/media-releases/2011/nbn-co-coo-appointment-21-nov-11.pdf
He also has some pretty serious international telco credentials including a number of large scale “network infrastructure programs.”
We are not talking about an incompetent or inexperienced management team here. We are only seeing speed wobble as one of the biggest fibre infrastructure projects in the world ramps up. A fibre infrastructure project of this scale is unprecedented in the world. You will never find an executive who has “built an NBN before” because this is a world first.
On top of that the NBN is subject to endless negative press and wildly inaccurate “journalism” from News Corp while being held to standards not even applied in the commercial world because people are more interested in playing politics than trying to understand what is being attempted and the massive issues of logistics and inherent complexity that are faced in a project of this scale.
Please make sure you do some research before posting next time – you do yourself and this important debate a disservice by contributing only uninformed invective.
+1
@LiesHurtMore
‘A fibre infrastructure project of this scale is unprecedented in the world. You will never find an executive who has “built an NBN before” because this is a world first.’
Indeed, but then we have not got a ‘world first’ yet , what we have is a very slow work in progress, 2021 and beyond will tell us if we have that world first.
It’s also a world first in that the NBN requires existing infrastructure to be shut down, I am sure all Telco’s the world over would envy the shut down of all fixed line competition as a condition of their rollout.
‘On top of that the NBN is subject to endless negative press and wildly inaccurate “journalism” from News Corp while being held to standards not even applied in the commercial world’
But it’s not JUST New Corp anymore is it?
A reminder of what this headline states on this article we are discussing:
‘NBN Co has “major credibility issues”: Budde’
Renai’s conclusion at the end:
‘I believe the NBN is overall a very positive project and the right model, but also like Budde, I am starting to lose faith in the way the project is being run and starting to question its honesty and transparency.’
More recent media comment:
‘NBN rollout could face 10 year delay’
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-03-22/nbn-rollout-could-be-delayed-by-10-years3a-expert/4589520
‘NBN Co’s contract crisis’
http://www.itnews.com.au/News/337161,nbn-cos-contract-crisis.aspx
‘Conroy silent on NBN rollout delays’
‘NBN supporter and Greens spokesman senator Scott Ludlam said very serious questions needed to be asked about NBN Co’s tendering processes. “I can’t see any way it’s mathematically possible for NBN Co’s subcontractors to hit that half-yearly target,” he said.’
http://www.afr.com/p/national/conroy_silent_on_nbn_rollout_delays_nooz3cmeciz22YvtM9rfdL
‘people are more interested in playing politics than trying to understand what is being attempted and the massive issues of logistics and inherent complexity that are faced in a project of this scale.’
Playing politics is the reality underpinning all of this project, politics is what started it, politics will finish it off one way or the other although not necessarily in the original format, which may not be a bad thing at all.
@ alain…
You’re so good at doom and gloom and FUD… but not much on facts and actually proving your position…
As such, I I’ll ask you again, for the 4th time….if FttN etc is better, answer the questions,
It’s all good and well to talk the talk… now walk the walk. Stop taking cheap pot shots and MAN UP
So in relation to the Coalitions plan (including FttN)…
* What are the technologies to be use %ages and where are these technologies to be used
* Total cost
* Funding – who pays and from where
* ROI – who gets it taxpayers or private enterprise
* Ownership – who owns the finished product, taxpayers, private company/companies or a mix
* Telstra – the need of their CAN, how will that work
* If they need to pay for the CAN, how much (to purchase or lease)
* Since the copper is required for national infrastructure, should the government simply seize the CAN from Telstra for the good of the nation
* If not, why not – considering it would reduce the most important (to some) cost, significantly
* HFC isn’t open access, will Telstra and Optus be forced to provide wholesaling to competitors
* ACCC – regarding access for other Telcos/ISP’s, to the Gov/Telstra’s network, how will that work
* Maintenance of the old copper – who pays
* What about copper repairs or replacement when FttN is rolled out and they find the copper no good?
* Do they replace copper with copper or fibre?
* If fibre why (since fibre is apparently overkill and a white elephant/waste)
* What if they find the copper in the majority of areas needs replacing?
* What benefits will we see, considering we will still have a copper bottleneck
* FttP – will it ever be needed
* If not why not
* If so – please repeat the first 5 dot points
* Wireless – where does this come into it (remember all those towers)
* What happens if FttN is held up legally because of Telstra’s CAN (either by Telstra or competitors).
* Ditto regarding HFC but with Telstra and Optus
As you can see, the Coalitions Plan has more holes than Swiss cheese. And while the NBN isn’t perfect, it of course has issues (and I have always said this) it is IMO, nonetheless, clearly, far and away the best option… as all of the above problems have been addressed, even if not to everyone’s liking.
And YET AGAIN… nothing (except consistency – in not having any answers)…
I’m starting to become like HC and think that those who have lots of bullets to fire but nothing concrete to actually offer the debate (like answering why they support FttN with all the above holes they have no answers for)… actually having no credibility, should not be taken seriously in this debate…
:(
@LiesHurtMore
‘Alcatel Lucent are much, much more than a modem company and a simple google search would have allowed you to enlighten yourself. To reiterate, they are THE major provider of infrastructure and network equipment to Telstra and other Australian and international telcos.’
You are quite correct, they make some nice FTTN gear as well.
http://www.alcatel-lucent.com/products/7330-isam-fttn-ansi
Yes, while ever there are people stupid enough to buy obsolescence they keep milking them
“incompetent ex-banker” Turnbull won’t be involved until after the election at the earliest.
Sorry couldn’t help myself.
Although I think there is a creditability, or specifically a PR, issue, what I don’t like is the slippery slope that most people seem to engage in, which isn’t rational thinking.
It’s one thing for the executive to, either deliberately or accidentally, omit inform about problems in press releases, but it’s another to imply that this means that NBNCo can’t recover from this, or that this brings into question the viability of the plan as a whole.
I’m disappointed in NBNCo for not coming forward earlier, specifically before a media storm headed by AFR, as are many people, including you I think Renai.
However, all things considered, the NBN is still the best plan on the table.
+1
The hysterical media coverage around NBNCo and the NBN seems to be do or die, succeed without issue or fail completely and give up.
The model is correct, the technology is correct, the rollout is happening. This is not a case of giving up, it’s a case of learning from what we’ve done and applying those lessons to where we’re going.
In Australia’s largest ever infrastructure project delays are to be expected. They will also be learnt from. Any competent project manager keeps a “lessons learnt” register. I expect NBNCo now has a fairly comprehensive list of lessons by now. From dealing with subcontractors, to staffing issues in remote locations, to extreme weather events (and this summer has certainly been extreme). NBNCo will be learning, and getting better. If they’re not then that is the only real concern.
Changes to project schedules are commonplace in any organisation, and indeed they help project complete successfully as they remove the need to rush to meet an arbitrary deadline. Few project experience the close scrutiny of the NBN though.
More hysterical media coverage is certainly not what is required at this point. Cool rational thought will see it through to the best result.
In yesterday’s article in Delimiter Mike Quigley said this …
“NBN Co remains on track to deliver fast, affordable and reliable broadband to every Australian by 2021 as set out in our Corporate Plan.”
How on god’s green earth can the NBNCo miss its FY2013 target by almost 50% and still say they are on track as set out in the corporate plan? They are not on track and they are not performing as set out in the corporate plan. The lack of rational thinking is inside the NBNCo.
What Quigley is saying simply beggars belief.
3 months delay in the ramp up is not 3 months or more at the end that people seem to imply. Once volume rollout is reach they will be passing as many premises in a couple of week than what their shortfall is now.
This 3 month delay in a 10 year project is the equivalent of a 3 and a half day delay in a 6 month long project, or 1.5 day delay in a month long project, a 4 hour delay in a week long project or an hour long project taking an extra minute and a half.
Get it right.
Don’t rush it.
It’s actually a 3 month delay on projections 6 months old(check out the Jan chart released by NBN apparently everything was on target).
We don’t know how incompetent NBN management will be after 9 years, but if they can’t get their figures right 3 months into the future I think we can assume they are going to be way off.
“We don’t know how incompetent NBN management will be after 9 years, but if they can’t get their figures right 3 months into the future I think we can assume they are going to be way off.”
I think we can safely assume they’ll be more competent in the future, as people tend to learn from experience. If their figures are incorrect today, they should note the error, correct it, and try not to make the same mistake in the future.
Y’know, part of that rational thinking someone mentioned once :)
People living in a Bizzaro world might learn in reverse, but I’m fairly sure we’re not there just yet.
Post-election… hmm…
@TTH
‘, but if they can’t get their figures right 3 months into the future I think we can assume they are going to be way off.’
Well it get’s even worse.
‘There are doubts about the NBN Co’s ability to meet its revised rollout figures just a day after its chief executive Mike Quigley cut the target by between 35 and 44 per cent.’
http://www.afr.com/p/technology/nbn_blames_partners_for_shortfall_P6l3ccPql4rEPS2OeeY0GI
It’s the infamous “ramp up” you see.
“The Ramp Up” is looking less like a exponential chart and more like a rocket launch, where nothing happens and one day someone hits a big red button and the NBN hits it’s roll out target.
According to NBN’s new graphs there will also be a “ramp down” in July, August and September… which makes you wonder if this stuff is being written up by a 5 year old at kindy. Is everyone going on holidays after June 30th?
Umm… that’s not how it works.
It means the contractors will be switching to a new “batch” of premises, doing prep work.
6000 a day is an average one day the might connect none, the next 20,000 might come online.
It has been repeated many times, from the moment you area is contracted to be completed to the day you can actually get a service on the NBN can be up to a year.
“According to NBN’s new graphs there will also be a “ramp down” in July, August and September…”
According to the graph you yourself posted (http://www.afr.com/r/2009-2014/AFR/2013/03/20/Photos/4750315a-9135-11e2-ad62-b0415bc7ee54_21p3NBNrollout.png) the numbers increase again after September. Do you consider this a “ramp up”?
Considered preparing for the election.
Minimum work in progress, minimum negative impact on the contractors when the Libs stop the FTTH NBN and switch to FTTN . Then the Libs problem to provide their FTTN solution and run the backhaul and fibres to the nodes.
How will they provide the fibre on demand whan the duct and conduit in the subs loop needs remediating, at what cost and what if just a couple of premises in a street need FTTH several months apart
Maximum negative impact on the electorate when MT changes midstream and has to redesign etc and check every pit, duct and copper pair before they can plan.
We will hold the LNP to their quicker cheaper faster PROMISES, after all they and their media masters have been constantly repeating them and by now they have an understanding of the issues they face and still repeat the mantra, so no excuses.
You will judged as you judge
You’re cutting your own throat there Mr Dibbler.
You seem to imply that missing an early target by 50% means the whole project will suffer a similar fate. That’s a fairly common logical fallacy. It’s like saying I’m going on a 4 hr drive and I’ve allowed 10 minutes to find my keys. It takes me 20 minutes, a 100% overrun. Will I be 100% longer on my drive? No.
NBNAccuracy has touched on the issue correctly, they’re behind now but opportunities exist to recover.
So far they are behind in the establishment/rampup phase. The lessons learned here should allow them to recover and compensate once they reach full volume.
Will they recover? I don’t know and neither do you. A strongly held opinion based on marginal information is no substitute for facts and evidence. Neither of us can say.
I hope they do and I suspect you hope they don’t.
Either way you can be assured that similar issues will exist with FTTN should we go that way. It won’t be roled out for as little as Mr Turnbull hopes, it won’t be done as quickly as he’s promised, and other issues will occur along the way that, given the same level of scrutiny and lack of tolerance the NBN is experiencing, would make it look like a complete disaster..
Should we not try either at all since neither is likely to be completed within the promised budgets and timeframes? No. That would be foolish. We should set a goal and work toward it dealing with issues as they arise. If our best judgement proves to be impractical we should adjust the goal to something that can be achieved.
A better more accurate example is that you are going on a 4 hour drive and it takes you 4 hours to find your lost keys because you are incompetent and plan poorly.
There fixed it for you.
Will you lose your keys on future trips? Most likely, because you are a poor planning individual who never learns.
“You seem to imply that missing an early target by 50% means the whole project will suffer a similar fate. ”
How on earth did you get that implication from what I wrote? All I said was they’re not “on track”. Their FY2013 forecasts are shot to buggery. How can they possibly be “on track”.
I said nothing about them still meeting their 2021 target. If you want to make sh*t up you go for it but don’t then attribute it to me.
“I hope they do and I suspect you hope they don’t.”
And that is pure, unadulterated bullsh*t. You do not get to make up what I think and post it here.
fwiw … I’ve been in favour of the NBN since the 2010 corporate plan was released. That does not mean I am not prepared to take a realistic look at the project’s performance. I don’t find Quigley’s remarks convincing. That does not mean I am not open to being convinced. I doubt the NBNCo will get the opportunity.
Well lets all agree on one thing. Whoever rolls out the the NBN, FTTH is the futuree proof solution. It’s just got to be push through, regardless of contractors stuffing up, lack of skilled workers. Those skills need to be provided, the FTTH is needed. FTTN may address our short term needs but in the long run it’s just a waste on investment. FTTN in 2008 may have paid for itself, but in 2013 going on 2014, the earliest the Coalition would start it’s rollout, it is a wasted effort that would need upgrade before it’s costs were paid off.
> Although I think there is a creditability, or specifically a PR, issue, what I don’t like is the slippery slope that most people seem to engage in, which isn’t rational thinking.
It is finally some hard evidence that cannot be glossed over. Remember back at the end of December when NBNCo rushed out the paperwork so that work had started?
> It’s one thing for the executive to, either deliberately or accidentally, omit inform about problems in press releases, but it’s another to imply that this means that NBNCo can’t recover from this, or that this brings into question the viability of the plan as a whole.
This has been a constant of NBNCo behaviour for a long time. Quigley has been a master of spin since the start of the project (1Gbps speeds, quoting only the top two sites for take-up, etc.)
> I’m disappointed in NBNCo for not coming forward earlier, specifically before a media storm headed by AFR, as are many people, including you I think Renai.
This is nothing new from NBNCo. How does a small RSP have numbers that NBNCo refuse to release under a FOI request?
> However, all things considered, the NBN is still the best plan on the table.
Technically, FTTP is the best, however Google Fibre is a much better model. Speed tiers mean that that majority of Australians will receive no benefit from fibre over other technology options.
“Speed tiers mean that that majority of Australians will receive no benefit from fibre over other technology options.”
How many times do you need this stupid assertion disproved before you stop posting it?
I don’t know. I’ve tried to tell him of the fact that 12Mbps is still a marked improvement over current service for a lot of people.
I’ve tried to point out the other advantages like latency, ubiquity and reliability.
I’ve even tried to point out the market seems to already be pushing the speed yo.
Some providers plans start at 25/5 for example. In others the comparable ADSL2 plan is at 50/20 or 100/40.
Mathew is continually focused on headline speed.
Ignoring all that I try to point out there isn’t a viable alternative for cross subsidation, and he doesn’t come up for one either. The closest he’s come is reducing the AVC and increasing the CVC, ignoring the fact that CVC is already too high, or worse, switching to quota based, thus removing any chance of RSPs differentiating their plans.
Time to replace Quigley.
The construction of the NBN is a massive civil engineering project. Dropping in the optical and switching kit that Mike has experience in is such a tiny part of it.
Better of getting someone from Leightons, Lend Lease, or even Bevan Slattery who has dug lots of ditches, issued lots of access notices, and laid lots of fibre in the ground running the shop.
I am sure Mike is a lovely guy (he seems it) and knows Alcatel MUXes backwards, but I’m not sure how relevant that experience is to the biggest civil engineering show in town.
I think you will be surprised how little a CEO actually knows about his own company in general. Quig is no different.
I think you are the one who might be surprised that in IT/Comms in Australia, a lot of CEOs actually know a heck of a lot about the company they run (Hackett, Malone, Theo, Farquhar, Cannon-Brookes, Spenceley, Slattery, POS, the list goes on).
If Quigley knows very little about what the NBN are trying to do (which you are saying explicitly), he should be moved on.
No, I’m saying that by implying that Quigley is directly accountable for the delay, you are implying that he is micromanaging the company.
In other words you’re overstating how much he knows about what’s going on in his company. The examples you gave are exactly the same. Would you hold Hackett personally responsible for a delay of installing a DSLAM in your exchange?
No, you wouldn’t, so why are you applying this double standard to Quigley?
If the install of a DSLAM was delayed because Hackett:
-Was not familiar with what a DSLAM was
-Was not familiar with where the DSLAM got installed
-Didn’t know who had to be notified before installing the DSLAM
-Got contractors in to do work he had no familiarity with and then just continually blamed the contractors rather than looking at himself and the feedback he was getting from the contractors
Then I wouldn’t blame Hackett. I would blame whoever installed him as CEO, because if he was that uninformed, he would never have gotten to that position on his own accord.
I’m not saying Quigley has done a bad job with his skillset. I am saying his skillset is not what nbnco needs on a civil engineering project of this unprecedented scale.
Are you saying Quigley has no idea about the technology he is responsible for rolling out?
Got any evidence for that?
Rolling out the “technology” (the GPON kit that I am sure he knows heaps about) is a tiny, tiny part of this project.
This is a civil engineering project about coordinating hundreds of teams of thousands of people and the associated logistics to dig ditches and bury millions of kilometres of fibre in highly built-up urban areas with all the associated challenges that entails.
He has very little experience in that field that I can see. Happy to be corrected though.
Heh. Keep digging that hole. You started your argument with a shaky premise, if you want to save face the solution is to back out on it, rather than to try to convince yourself of the truth of that premise. NightKhaos has it right: CEOs do not micromanage their companies. And they certainly don’t micromanage the work of other companies (contractors and sub-contractors). NBNco, in the NT at least, appears to have learned their lesson and will begin to micromanage a portion of the rollout. This is progress.
But you could be right. Perhaps if Quigley were replaced, we would have some results, but I really doubt they’d be so dramatic.
Look, you can go on until the cows come home. He may or may not be familiar with dealing with contractors, etc. But he is one person of many in the company. His job is CEO not ditch digger. You say he is incompetent with no evidence to support that. If you get your car fixed by a mechanic and he does a lousy job does that make you incompetent? There are things you can control and some you can’t.
I guess Gillard is incompetent because of all the stuff ups that happen around Australia and they will magically be ok with Abbott as priminister. Same people doing the work but I guess he will stand behind each of them to make sure they do their job right. Boy he will be busy.
Yes the lynch mob mentality… from Django, at work NBNAccuracy;)
They couldn’t make the Quigley’s a crook tag stick, so now they try Plan B, err, nah, hang on… he’s incompetent, yes that’s it *yawn*
Without pointing the finger at any individuals… but my goodness, I’ve never seen the politically bigoted, so obviously threatened by a project or one man… it’s actually quite pitiful.
Hang on… so we are paying this clown $2 Million dollars a year and he’s not even responsible for what happens?
You NBN’ers get and more desperate with every passing day.
Responsible != Micromanaging. Learn the difference.
@NK
So who is responsible for approving the target figures BEFORE they are published?
Responsible != Micromanaging. Learn the difference.
Don’t make me repeat myself.
You guys are too much, really.
I never said anybody was incompetent, and I don’t have an issue with the NBN.
I thought all along we would have been better off getting someone running the show who has done a similar role previously (wow, what a revelation!).
Someone like Phil Sykes who was the MD of Nextgen, rolling out hundreds of thousands of kilometres of fibre, or Bevan Slattery, started up and CEO of Pipe Networks, again, responsible for overseeing an organisation rolling out fibre terrestrially, as well as subsea.
But, we have gone with someone who has never been involved in a project rolling out a single meter of fibre before, and the results speak for themselves. We have contractors chosen by nbnco handing back the contracts because they can’t do the work. We have an organisation that has underestimated (badly) the rampup timeframe, thereby giving ammunition to the coalition.
Come on guys, you are in danger of loving Mike Quigley to death, seriously.
Let me ask you – can you foresee any scenario at all where you would admit, OK, maybe we should be doing this differently?
Yes, I can foresee that.
Can you understand why your preferred solution, which is to put the blame squarely on Quigley is a zealous and unreasonable response?
Imagine a world where a project manager was fired if a project went even slightly behind schedule. That is what you are suggesting.
And you may not be saying that he is incompetent but your suggested action implies it. Would your suggested alternatively possibly have more experience in the relevant field? Yes they would.
Would that experience have provided any tangible benefits? There is no evidence to suggest it would, and considering the factors apart from disclosure of the labour shortage affecting their targets, were all outside NBNCo’s control, the evidence we do have tends to point towards Quigley being an equivalent choice.
You are using Quigley as a scapegoat here. Further you seem to be implying on the ground experience is relevant to management. It actually isn’t in reality. The skills you need to manage are completely different to the skills you have on the ground.
I can understand why you’d think that, the hierarchy we have in current business seems to imply it, but management experience is actually transferable across fields. It’s all about setting goals and ensuring the sub tasks are all completed to standard and to the right order.
Relevant experience on the ground only helps so you can talk to the people on the ground. Working at AL Quigley knows enough jargon.
Rolling out p2p fibre for use as back haul is MUCH MUCH simpler than rolling out FTTP into suburbs – NBN Co has has already had NextGen roll out thousands of kilometres of back haul across Australia with very few issues as the duct infrastructure was already renovated by Telstra for their NextIP fibre back haul rollout!
I’ve got an idea on how he can improve his internal knowledge, send Quigley on Undercover Bosses Australia for a week. :-D
If only to see him in a wig… awesome idea.
Mike Quigley, sorry, “Mick Quincy”, in a bad wig and fake moustache? That would be… err… something.
That’ll speed things up.
I think what is needed is further transparency. It’s all well and good to provide quarterly reports when those reports are broadly indicative of what is transpiring and the public have strong faith in the honesty and accuracy of those reports (and testing company in general). But the problem you have when you demonstrate that you haven’t been entirely open and forthcoming is that people question your general trustworthiness. The only way to recover from this is to gain that trust back, and that means more transparency so people can see what is going on, so they can understand all the underlying reasons for these delays, so they can see that processes are bring put in place to ensure things are not only brought back on track, but that such delays don’t occur again in the future.
It’s all very well to say “trust us, we know what we’re doing” right up until you demonstrate that you can’t be trusted. That’s just happened, so time to roll back the blinds and let everyone see what’s going on so they can develop an appreciation for the circumstances and you can prove that you’re making the best decisions possible – in short, to restore public faith and trust in NBN Co and the executive team as the best people for the job.
This is so disappointing. The last thing Turnbull needs is free ammunition, but now he has been handed it on a silver platter. Why on Earth did NBNco 1.) Cover this up for so long? and 2.) slip out the press release about it in the middle of the leadership crisis? Whether coincidental timing or not, surely they must have known it would make them look even worse to do so? They could have easily held off for today. It’s not like NBN Co could have been unaware as to what was going on at the time they tweeted news of the delay.
I feel a bit cheated as I’ve always defended NBN Co and take up rates as much as possible, but there’s simply no denying NBNCo are way behind, and have acted improperly by concealing this highly significant delay. They must have known they were seriously behind schedule months ago. It’s not a good look.
I have been reasonably happy about the progress of NBNco to date. All of the planning, design and negotiations have taken about as long as we should expect. There hasn’t been too much that has concerned me.
It has been the period of ‘ramp up’ that I felt was crucial. This is when we find out if all of the time spent planning was actually producing anything of value. It is at this first real test that the NBNco is struggling. While in some senses this is understandable and almost expected, it is also a truth that NBNco can ill afford this kind of setback right now.
I am hoping to see some dynamic leadership in response to this issue. There needs to be a really visible management of this lagging rollout to restore public confidence. Perhaps bonuses and incentives can be offered for contractors who can step up and help get things quickly back on track. Although at this stage, I don’t know how politically damaging such a move would be (it might be inevitable that NBNco have to pay more for their contractors anyway; perhaps it is time to bite the bullet, review the budgeting, offer more pay more to get people out into the field and at least get the rollout back on track)
“…The damage is predominantly on the political side as this confirms what the Opposition has been saying all the time, that NBN Co will not be able to deliver on its promises…”
Then please stop politicising arguably the most important infrastructure project since the Snowy Hydro or even the copper telephone network.
So many people want this to fail. Why? Purely for political reasons.
Will it be smooth sailing? Will there be problems? Of course – it’s a MASSIVE undertaking. You can’t equate IT with laying pay tv cables or any other cabling projects ever done in this country.
Step back, put away your ideologies and FFS let NBN Co get on with building it, building it once and building it right.
WE NEED THIS – IT’S ALREADY SAVING LIVES, GET IT…
IMO the Opposition has largely contributed to these delays with their constant negativity & FUD.
Looking at the results Labor’s NBN version is now doomed according to the polls.
So why would the contractors invest heavily in fibre training or equipment knowing that at the end of their present contracts most of it probably becomes a redundant waste once Turnbull is in charge & reverts to a copper based premises delivery?
Same applies to Telstra fixing ducts for access etc…No hurry we’ll most likely be able to sell the whole mess back to Abbott come September. Let him pay for the maintenance & repairs.
+100
Telstra will more than likely end up with it all AND the taxpayer will pay to fix the infrastructure they allowed to fall into disrepair
LNP = Telstra’s Alan Bond
However what saddens me the most is the lives we have sacrificed and the sacrifices many have made in the fight for democracy and we are just throwing it away at the behest of the media
Let the failures and incompetent management continue… yes that will fix anything.
Really you guys are too much. You’ve been shown unequivocal evidence that NBN’s management is useless and your solution is for everyone to just shut up and do nothing?
Doing NOTHING does not solve problems. Quigley needs to be sacked and he needs to be sacked… NOW.
“You’ve been shown unequivocal evidence that NBN’s management is useless and your solution is for everyone to just shut up and do nothing?”
You are right, everyone at NBNco including Quigley needs to be sacked. Now do you have any suggestions on who would be a suitable replacement and one that would ensure the 93% FttP network part of the NBN is rolled out without anymore delays?
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/ceos-good-call-has-transformed-telstra/story-fnboyn5s-1226547870715
Thank you for establishing that you can no longer be taken seriously in this debate. Your opinion no longer counts. It is null and void.
So you didn’t like my (successful) pick, so you went into full personal attack mode.
There is plenty of talent out there, much better than has-beens who got passed over for CEO after a corporate merger.
But we should continue to pay Quigley $2 Million dollars a year as CEO because he “twied his bestest”
You’ve all been told you got a Steve Jobs, when in fact you got a John Sculley. This guy should go back to selling sugar water…
“so you went into full personal attack mode”
Point out exactly the personal attack in my comment and I will reconsider if you can be taken seriously in this debate.
It’s really a futile argument HC…
Because it doesn’t matter who is in charge (or had been, if it were another) or had they met their targets.
As we have seen and see daily, there are a group of politically motivated who oppose the NBN because of their political motivation. They aren’t interested in anything but bagging the NBN…’period”
So had Thodey been in charge or in charge of the NBN he would now be being derided too.
Conversely, post Sept 14 when the Libs win (I think after the last Labor leadership fiasco it now a given, if it wasn’t already) these same people will of course embrace everything the Coalition offer in relation to broadband, whether it advantageous or not…
But we’ll never see them commenting here, as their job to be part of “destroying the NBN as their leader has ordered” will have been completed.
It’s really the only conclusion one can come to, as to why people would fervently attack a project which will help all Aussies, including them and their own families :/
Let’s be honest, Alex – with the Murdoch papers, the motivation is primarily financial. Murdoch doesn’t want his nice little pay TV empire to be comprehensively undermined by the NBN.
@TTH
Nice one, post a Coalition win there might be a strong case for Back to the Future, but I’m not sure the ACCC would see it that way.
:)
Anybody that expected the NBN project to be on time or on budget with 3 monthly targets every month is a fool.
Considering the hard house to house wiring has been running for around 12 months the project is still in the infancy or start-up phase it’s the wiring of 83% of the streets in Australia and around 10 million premises.
I would think it would take at least another 18 months to even get to a stage where any real cost/deployment problems could be seriously assessed, considering the very hard rural areas that were the start up locations.
Any sort of “RUSHED DEPLOYMENT” to meet what was an artificial “target” or wishful thinking rollout plan could lead to serious cost overruns or engineering problems, if commercial suppliers think that for NBN the issue was a” political speed of deployment” issue and not cost, the floodgates for commercial exploitation would open as they did in other programmes.
Imagine if they were 3 months ahead of schedule but they were having all sorts of problems everywhere.
I’d rather they get it right (once) & be a little behind then rush it & get it wrong.
This is no ‘little’ backyard project, it covers all of Australia in one way or another & I would presume very, very complicated.
Yes if NBNCo were ahead of schedule… they/Quigley would still be criticised by those who oppose anyway.
Let’s see NBNCo would be accused of:
* rubbery figures/cooking the books
* cutting corners
* using inferior quality components
* unfairly standing over contractors to ensure timelines
* instead of incompetent they’d be reverting to the old trusty Quigley is a crook
* etc
Oh and of course the biggy being politically motivated in an election year (well they certainly can’t use that one now).
But as for the rest, I’m sure they’ll be revisited at some stage if the impossible occurs and the Coalition aren’t elected.
Do a job search of check on the ‘careers’ pages for virtually all the contractors. They all have openings (and have had for some time) for fibre techs / rod and ropers.
I can sympathise with NBN Co on the reasons for the delays, but surely they would have predeicted that there would be a lack of talent able to actually deliver this sort of project with the local workforce available.
Now where is that 457 application form…
Budde has major credibility issues. Budde is being critical of the management of a project he doesn’t even believe in. For him, it actually does not matter who helms the project, he has never agreed with the project as a whole. Perhaps the argument is outwardly sound, but the motives have always been ulterior. Budde has consistently demonstrated himself to be just another political footsoldier of the Liberal party, alongside the likes of Andrew Bolt. (…too far?)
From the outset, NBNco’s problem was simply the result of another failure of Labor’s political acumen (not Labor’s governance) – NBNco should have “overbuilt” (if it can be called that) denser metro areas, because then the numbers would now be there to support the rest of the project. If this was the result of their deal with the Greens and independents, they should have made it more clear to them how important that the first years of a project be SEEN to be successful, but I suppose they couldn’t predict how politically charged the project would become.
I hope we can all agree, though, that regardless of how we get there, FTTP rolled out by a GBE is the best solution going forward. I’m beginning to have my doubts, because of Labor’s political incompetence and the Coalition’s dogmatic position, and not NBNco’s rollout speed, that we will never get to see it.
Hmmm, I just noticed something interesting, and a little disturbing on the rollout map.
When the rollout map was released last year Edithvale VIC was in the one year rollout. My girlfriend lives there so it was of particular interest. She has a pretty bad ADSL2 connection that is lucky to stay up for 20 minutes in wet weather and even loses the phone line some days.
Well, I went to check the rollout map to see if it had started and when it’d be finished. It’s now a 3 year rollout area.
Are NBNCo moving back some areas? I have never seen mention of anything like this.
Coastal Metro along that strip from memory basically from I think Black rock to Seaford was an area where they trialled aluminium cables. Think Elwood/Elsternwick was involved (Strangely Brighton to Sandringham excluded) It is an old area and it would be a prime candidate for conduit and duct issues, sand, salt and water.
I was eyeing off that area myself for next residence, but held off as a bit suss of the underground infrastructure
“I sat through an extensive press conference with NBN Co chief executive Mike Quigley only a month ago, and at that stage there was literally no mention of the possibility of delays.”
It is of course possible that the vendor was hiding the problems from NBNco.
Anyways, it is all pretty much moot.
The NBN is Dead buried and cremated as of the day after the election result is declared.
Your assumption is that the Liberals will win, yes?
The navy’s sea Sprite choppers on steroids.
Funny the similarities,
Same political party,
Same obsession with cheaper and quicker.
Same insistance on retaining the past use by date assets and refurbishing and upgrading
Similar patchy mongrel result on the way, rather ineffective and complete lunancy
Similar complicated and expensive maintenance and repair issues.
Guess the cost factor and multiplication factor against the turnkey solution will be similar
Heads up: Quigley is on ABC Inside business at 10AM today.
http://www.abc.net.au/insidebusiness/content/2011/s3722506.htm
Lets face it, 6 months ago would you have been supportive of your son/dtr even yourself taking on a splicer traing for a job as a fibre splicer with one of the NBN contractors, with the relentless constant anti NBN and Government media barrage and the next government going to demolish it, or change it all to FTTN with minimal fibre splicer employment. Definitely no job security – look elsewhere.
Can’t blame the contractors for being hesitant to commit resources for the same reason, after all just one heartbeat away from a Philistine Abbot Government and no future.
The boots on the ground need weekly pay, hanging around twiddling thumbs waiting for ducts and conduit to be remediated and Council permits issued and plans ratified doesn’t pay the bills.
Really Telstra should have been sent out and be remediating the ducts and conduits to be ready for when the siting plans are to be drawn up, that could have incorporated the feet on the ground confirming premises and cable records and meant minimum downtime for the skilled workers and the contractors, from one job straight to the next
NBN Co has been complacent instead of being focussed on installing enough FTTP that not even Clown Prince Abbott aka Monkey Man dared stop the rollout. Including puissant, sparsely populated Hills towns instead of sizable country towns (to satisfy the regional requirement) and sizable suburbs/council areas in cities.
Forget ducts, run it between power polls, forget the puissant hamlets concentrate resources where the numbers are.
A “Friends of the NBN” could be set up to keep on NBN Co’s case, to spruik the NBN case everywhere, volunteer to do stuff like letter boxing, translating, review and rate NBN ads and whatever else would be useful. The NBN needs friends right now, with cheap shots coming from oily gits like Malcolm Turnbull and other inbred Torie hits.
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