Coalition NBN policy: What details does Turnbull need to release?

[Renai LeMayKeymaster]

hey everyone,

we’ve seen some pretty vitriolic comments over the past few days in relation to comment that Turnbull has actually released quite a lot of detail about the Coalition’s rival NBN policy. A lot of people seem to feel that Turnbull hasn’t yet done enough to detail the Coalition’s policy. Some examples on this thread:

http://delimiter.com.au/2012/10/10/turnbull-on-quigley-witch-hunt-says-conroy/#comment-503268

So I wanted to ask the question — what details does Turnbull need to release before you would consider the Coalition’s NBN policy to be sufficiently detailed? Note: I’m not asking whether you agree with the policy or whether it’s credible — just what details he would need to release to show that the policy is complete in your mind.

Let me know … if there are some good questions I might put them to Turnbull’s office. As we’ve seen, they don’t always respond, but it’s at least worth investigating.

[Justin]

he needs to promise a cost benefit analysis on both the current fttp and his httn policy to determine whats best for the long term, rather than the next election cycle.

[Renai LeMayKeymaster]

“he needs to promise a cost benefit analysis on both the current fttp and his httn policy to determine whats best for the long term, rather than the next election cycle.”

I’m personally curious as to why the Coalition is actually able to focus on FTTN at all, given that Turnbull has promised to conduct a CBA immediately following a Coalition election victory. Shouldn’t that mean that the Coalition’s technology choices would be guided by that CBA?

[seven_tech]

Shouldn’t that mean that the Coalition’s technology choices would be guided by that CBA?

I believe Turnbull has both said they won’t abide by a CBA if it says FTTP is the better option.

So they should. But probably won’t.

I’d be happy to see:

1- Estimate of Cost, as long as it includes: Estimate of Telstra negotiations, Estimate of FTTN actual build cost and Estimate of NBN FTTP contract cancellation cost.

2- Estimate of Coverage INCLUDING: What % will get FTTN overall and within that percentage, an estimate of the sorts of speeds they should expect based on EVIDENCE using the G-NAF data or similar to predict their distance from the node. (so that it can be determined if it is likely or not)

3- An Estimate of timeframe, again, based on evidence. Telstra’s original estimate in 2006 was 7300 nodes a year. If it is well beyond that (say 15 000), they would need to provide evidence of how and why.

Does anyone feel that’s too much to ask?

[Hubert CumberdaleParticipant]

He needs to outline the following but not limited to:

How many nodes he plans to use.

* Maps detailing what areas nodes will be built in vs wireless, satellite, HFC and the rest of the “mix of technologies”.

The total cost.

The operating cost per year.

What percentages will get the speeds he is claiming.

Details of any upgrade plans to a proper FttH build (when & how) if there are no plans then he needs to be forthcoming about this.

* Cannot use current NBN build as an excuse not to provide this information. NBNco have provided a 3 year rollout plan so he should have a reasonable idea of which areas to exclude as they will be getting fibre.

[seven_techParticipant]

* Maps detailing what areas nodes will be built in vs wireless, satellite, HFC and the rest of the “mix of technologies”.

You won’t get maps. You might get a list of suburbs.

The operating cost per year.

Nope. No way. He’d never give that. Not even NBNCo. could give that for FTTN without substantial analysis.

Details of any upgrade plans to a proper FttH build (when & how) if there are no plans then he needs to be forthcoming about this.

That’s easy- none :D

[Hubert CumberdaleParticipant]

Yes seven, we know exactly what we will and wont get from malcom but that is hardly the point. These are details that need to be sorted BEFORE they halt the proper NBN build and switch to their gimped version of it. Not after.

[Gav]

Aside from the obvious how much will it cost, how long will it take, and how plausible is it given Telstra’s current cash-flow stability…

How about the intended future market competitive state? The Labor policy is basically a monopoly wholesale customer access network, with some level of competition in retail, wholesale reseller, backhaul, and international transit. How does the Coalition expect their policy to alter the state of the market(s) from this desired outcome, and what power balance do they expect in each market?

What benefits do they expect their proposed competitive model to provide for consumers and investors respectively?

[Renai LeMayKeymaster]

“How about the intended future market competitive state? The Labor policy is basically a monopoly wholesale customer access network, with some level of competition in retail, wholesale reseller, backhaul, and international transit. How does the Coalition expect their policy to alter the state of the market(s) from this desired outcome, and what power balance do they expect in each market?”

I agree, these are critical details. Australia’s telco industry has lost many elements of competition recently, especially as part of the iiBorg acquisition trail. I would be interested to see what the Coalition actually thinks it can achieve in this area.

[Renai LeMayKeymaster]

“their gimped version of it”

lol :)

[Tinman_auParticipant]

I’d love to see Malcolms actual plan, including how he will deal with the higher speeds we’ll require in a few (10?) years time. I’d also like to see how anything he’ll involve Telstra in be cheaper (for the end user), my experience with Telstra (over many, many years and CEO’s) is premium prices for average/mediocre services (to the end user).

It doesn’t have to be a roll-out schedule, but something, anything, that shows he’s put more thought into it than “Hey, this sounds like it could be plausible!!” would be great.

Basically, he just needs to back his own claims that his plan will be better (cheaper, etc).

[Renai LeMayKeymaster]

“I’d love to see Malcolms actual plan, including how he will deal with the higher speeds we’ll require in a few (10?) years time.”

This is probably my key issue with the Coalition NBN policy. I don’t think it’s a bad short to medium-term model, but Turnbull hasn’t yet addressed the issue of why he’s pursuing a short to medium-term strategy to what is clearly a long-term infrastructure issue. The current copper network has lasted, what, 50 years? Surely the NBN will last even more, in one form or another — I can easily see it continuing to serve Australia for 100 years.

[ZokParticipant]

I would like to ask Mr. Turnbull the following:

- Will he commit to doing a truly technology-agnostic CBA and use the findings to make an informed decision on which technology to use, or is he going to set terms of reference for the CBA so that its findings can be used to justify the choice of technology he seems to have already made (i.e. FTTN as opposed to FTTP for brownfields)?

- Will the Coalition’s CBA include comparative analysis of potential effects of NBN on the national economy/GDP for different technology options (especially FTTN vs FTTP)?

- Will timeframes and costs of a future upgrade from FTTN to FTTP be included in the analysis?

It would really impress me if he answered any of the above, openly and honestly, without the usual spin.

[Tinman_auParticipant]

“This is probably my key issue with the Coalition NBN policy.”

If you think about it, that probably wouldn’t be your key issue. When you sit down and piece together a lot of what Malcolm has actually said about his plan, it can be summed up as “business as usual”…

A lot of Malcolms plan seems to be based on the US system of subsidising/bribing private enterprise to provide the services required in less profitable areas (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Broadband_Plan_%28United_States%29 for background on the US NBN)

And I can see that a lot of the problems they now have with their plan (some of which you can see here: http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2012/05/four-signs-americas-broadband-policy-is-failing/ ) will probably effect Malcolms plan as well.

• This reply was modified 8 months ago by  Tinman_au. Reason: typos

[GavParticipant]

I’d really like a transcript of Graeme Samuel’s speech today at the Aussie IPv6 Summit – David Braue has a brief write-up on it. Here’s a shameless copy of the abstract from the Summit website:

NBN – Sorting Facts from Myths, and Taking Advantage of the Opportunities – Graeme Samuel
•Why did government move from FTTN to FTTH?
• How important was the structural separation of Telstra’s fixed line network from its retail operations?
• Has the NBN created another government owned monopoly – is this a reversion to the days of Telecom?
• Do we need a cost benefit analysis and how does this differ from the NBNCo business case ananlysis?
• Will the structure of the NBN provide for genuine and vigorous competition, with resultant incentives for price and service competition and innovation?
• Are there any modifications to the NBN that might be considered in the interests of efficiency?
• Should the NBN be privatised – if so how and when?
• What are some of the opportunities provided by the NBN – for example in areas of personal and business applications, health and education?

[jennatilzParticipant]

ignore

• This reply was modified 8 months ago by  jennatilz.
• This reply was modified 8 months ago by  jennatilz.

[Renai LeMayKeymaster]

“I’d really like a transcript of Graeme Samuel’s speech today at the Aussie IPv6 Summit – David Braue has a brief write-up on it.”

I have emailed Samuel to ask if we can have a copy, noting that there is reader interest in it. I’ll let you know if I hear anything back.

[Tinman_auParticipant]

I think if I was only to get one question answered by Malcolm, it would be “How do you plan on getting access to the copper network at a reasonable price, considering figures for accessing it are between $17.5B (ACCC replacement cost) and $40B (Steve Jenkin CAN estimation)?”.

[Author]

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