Copper good for 100 years, says Thodey

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thodey8

blog The debate about the quality of Telstra’s existing copper network has been going on for some time. We’ve heard the telco describe the copper as being “at five minutes to midnight”, we’ve seen photos of the worst of the worst of the copper out there in the field, and yet we’re also being told by the Coalition that the copper could have a long-term future under its fibre to the node-based NBN policy. So what’s the real situation? Well, according to Telstra chief executive David Thodey (who should, after all, know), the copper could last for some time yet. ZDNet quotes Thodey (we recommend you click here for the full article):

“The copper has been going well for 100 years, I think it’ll keep going for another 100, but … you’ve got to keep things maintained,” he said. “[And] copper does not decompose.”

Now, we’re absolutely sure that Thodey’s comments will be met with howls of derision from many quarters. After all, there are plenty out there on broadband connections which suffer poor quality precisely because of poor copper lines. There are even those (such as your writer) who tend to suffer issues with their broadband connection when it rains. However, the executive appears to be saying pretty much what some of us have already been saying for some time — that in essence, Telstra’s copper network is still functioning and still carrying the bulk of Australian telecommunications data, and that its faults are within acceptable percentage levels. This is a tune that Shadow Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull has also been singing for some time, and Thodey’s comments will only give further support to it.

Image credit: Telstra

122 COMMENTS

  1. Please remember that there’s a good chance Thodey is about to enter into negotiations with Coalition / NBN Co for them to o purchase or lease copper network. This statement has to be seen in that context.

    Thodey’s not saying ithe copper is all going to last 100 years, or that there is not a lot of maintenance required, he’s just saying that it’s not dead and it’s actually stil worth a good deal of money. Surely this is aimed at Turnbull’s suggestion that Telstra should gift copper network to NBN Co.

    This is not, in reality, a positive comment with regard to Turnbull’s NBN design

    Context guys. Context, context, context.

    • +1

      I also note he didn’t say “The copper is good”, he specifically says “I believe the copper is good”. Beliefs and feelings are great and all, but it’s not a definitive statement like “With enough money spent on maintenance, the copper network is up to the task of an FTTN NBN”.

  2. Sure the copper could keep going for another hundred years …. delivering Voice services …. Broadband is a different story altogether!

    imo this is just Thodey’s way of signaling to Turnbull that the the copper has vakue under and FTTN regime and he wont be getting it for free as he keeps claiming!

    • Yes exactly. He says the copper has been ‘going’ for a hundred years, but that’s only voice. It’s been carrying data for much less time and it’s been doing an effing terrible job of it (and is getting progressively worse at it).

      • Sending data over the network wears it out much faster than just sending voice. This is especially evident around tight corners because the voice is smooth and soft and flows around the corner quite easily. Data can get rather abrasive, and tends to grind the corners. Also, data moves significantly faster than voice with the obvious problems that entails.

        But you can’t go faster than the speed of light, so wireless clearly is a no goer.

  3. Sounds like Telstra has destroyed their line fault database again, ask any Telstra line tech about the state of the network to get an honest answer.

    • My copper connection was enabled a couple of months ago. I was advised the tech submitted yet another form for the area advising copper is a poor state. Yet this copper can only be 20 years old. Some would wonder how bad it must be in a property 30 years old, or 50, and what it will be like in another 100 years. Dreaming.

      If this submission has in fact (I relise this is not fact) been destroyed to bump up the price for the network come FTTN, I look forward to the horror on LNP’s face as budgets blow out. Lets say to 90 Billion, fairs fair.

  4. But then you have cause and effect reversed. Thodey is saying this because the coalition is likely to come into power in September (vomit). But by Thodey saying this, won’t more people be thinking “oh, so I guess the coalition broadband plan is OK after all” and be more likely to vote coalition?

        • Aussies also don’t like tall poppies, which Tony is looking more like every day…

      • Sort of like they knew the outcome of the last election?
        I have no problem with the Liberal party, it’s their leader that is the issue. He could still kill another sure victory. After all, as it gets closer to the election, he has to talk. Every time he opens his mouth the polls seem to shift to Labor.

        • The polls were close to 50-50 last time as much as I would like a turnaround it does not look possible.

          The PM can’t communicate the message

          • AJ, the Government aren’t ALLOWED to communicate the message.

            A prime example was Leigh Sales’ interview of Craig Emerson the other night…95% of the questions were on #leadershit.
            It’s bit hard to get your message out when the messenger won’t deliver it.

  5. Oh of course the physical cables could last a while with maintenance, I mean if you throw enough honey at something of course you can keep it running indefinitely.

    The problem is if running the network has any future value, which as discussed due to the nature or the medium the value is quite limited. Certainly not worth the $30b that the Coalition want to put into it.

  6. Of course he’s going to say that, he’s trying to talk up the price he can extract from our taxpayer dollars via his negotiations with Turnbull.

  7. “you’ve got to keep things maintained”

    Good thing I finished my coffee before reading this article, as we all know what a stellar bloody job Telstra has done in terms of maintenance. And as somebody who has spent this semester studying a unit on corrosion chemistry, I can tell you that copper does indeed corrode (although I already knew this before the start of the semester).

  8. Of course he is saying the copper is good.

    You complain about your old car, breaking down, using oil, it’s on it’s last legs.
    You buy a new one.
    You old car is traded or sold on. Of course who ever asks gets told this old car is a great car, reliable, never had a problem with it…

  9. “[And] copper does not decompose.”

    Copper may not ‘decompose’ but it definitely ‘corrodes’. They didn’t ‘paint’ the Statue of Liberty green…

    And this corrosion effects the electrical properties of the copper. Well, who would have guessed David?!

    • A really ‘sound’ network until it rains. There are considerable limits to what you can use copper for versus the potential of fibre.

      Don’t see many leading nations updating their decades old copper networks for the future.

  10. When I read this this morning; best laugh I’ve had in a long time :)

    But then every seller says that don’t they :P

  11. BREAKING ANNOUNCEMENT: Product is fine for the next 100 years, as long as you adequately maintain the product for the next 100 years. News at 11.

    • Under FTTN, most of the “product” is replaced with fiber. So, copper maintenance is drastically reduced.

        • Doctors can treat your herpes infection, but can’t completely eliminate it either.

          So, why bother, huh?

          • When said doctor can also completely remove said infection for a nominal amount more, why would you bother with a partial removal? You wouldn’t, you’d go for the full…

          • Herpes stays with you for life.

            (By definition, as long as part of the network uses coppah, you will always have to provision for coppah maintenance. Does it mean FTTN isn’t pursuing? Of course, not. Just pointing out the trivialities of your replies.)

          • Either that or … living in a world with fingers and toes crossed and with that one and only eye, squarely fixated on 14 Sept ;)

          • Doctors can treat your herpes infection, but can’t completely eliminate it either.

            I’m sure if they could cure it, they would (as FTTP would cure the 100 year old copper “herpes” issue). I love your analogy….”copper herpes”, that’s awesome :o)

      • Most? I thought there were more customers than exchanges, how can most of the copper be removed if you are replacing only copper that goes to exchanges.

        If we were replacing the bit of copper that went from a house to a node (and left it copper after that) then I would easily accept “most”.

        • Under a FTTC topology, is the average copper tail circuit shortened by more than or less than 50%?

          • This is a dangerous site to read, because first one must wrap binding around one’s skull to prevent head exploding when reading comments like PeterA above.

            To answer your question, FTTC removes most of the copper, much more than 50% but there’s another advantage. For example. my house has four wires out to the street (i.e. two copper pairs) because pretty much all residential CAT-3 is four wires. However, I only currently use 2 wires because there’s a premium price on 4-wire services and because there aren’t enough cables going all the way back to the exchange for everyone to have 4 wires.

            Right now, the most common business product is 10M/10M symmetric and this could EASILY be done by running 4 wires into an FTTC loop. Every house could have it. All of the touted great features of NBN (e.g. HD video conference to your doctor, watching movies, playing games, education) could be catered to with a 10M/10M symmetric link, and we don’t even have to go up into VDSL frequencies to do that if the 4-wire copper only goes a short distance.

            For completeness I should mention that upstream contention remains an issue, but it does just as much with NBN GPON as last mile so that’s not a differentiating factor.

          • Where did FTTC come into the debate, has Malcolm changed his mind again?

            And the difference between 10Mbps and 50Mbps is easily noticeable (and 100 even more so). That difference is why I’m not actually interested in Malcolm’s plan..he’ll pry my 100Mbps from my cold dead hands…

          • It’s the most common plan because it’s the maximum most business’s can afford without spending a huge amount on running direct fibre or paying a premium to be in A fibre enabled business estate, not because it’s “enough” for any SME.

          • And Toyota Corolla/Holden Commodore is the most common car purchased because it’s the max most people can afford without spending a huge amount on a Maserati or BMW7s, not because it’s “enough” for any car buyer. Oh, Golly Gosh God, we live in a world where economic constraints exist! Fancy that….

          • Interesting you believe, we can’t afford FttP but we can FttN, how convenient.

            Interesting too, we aren’t talking about a new commodore with FttN, due to the copper we are talking about putting a ’74 Kingswood donk into a commodore shell or visa versa :/

            But looking at the govenrment coffers we “can” afford either option… so why go with the dumb Kingswood FttN option, when it could be done properly.

        • The fact that there are more premises than exchanges is irrelevant because the copper access network is a home run topology!!!

      • right. Most of the copper will be replaced, so maintenance will be a lot less. Simultaneously of course, most of the copper will be left in place, so that asbestos removal won’t cost anything.

  12. Hang on guys, the CEO of a company that is about to receive a multi billion dollar payout come September election by a coalition government that has publicly admitted they plan to buy the copper from Telstra, is quoted as saying the copper is in good condition???

    And somehow people are surprised??

    They want to sell the copper to the liberal baboons for the best price possible, of course they’ll say its in good condition!!! It’s business 101….I’m surprised Renai didn’t pick this up and took Thodey’s word as gospel.

    Would you sell your car to someone saying it is a rotten bucket that is costing you a fortune to maintain?? Of course not because that pretty much kills off any negotiation on price.

    Sadly the AFR and the media see Thodey’s statement, swallow it line hook and sinker and don’t even attempt to think that the upcoming negotiations with a potential liberal government is the real reason for his optimism. Especially when other Telstra execs in the past were quoted as saying the network was “seconds to midnight”.

  13. The ZDNet story on this includes this quote:

    “The three subcontractors working on Telstra’s pits and ducts for the NBN have been working with the company for over a decade, and Thodey indicated that it was less of an issue with the contractors but rather an issue with the workload.”

    The issue with “workload” is that Telstra laid off so many workers, they now have issues with the remediation/maintenance work it seems…

  14. How many 100 year old copper cables are actually in use today? I’d say none. There’s a big difference between ‘the copper’ as an infrastructure concept and ‘this copper cable’. This copper cable won’t last more than 40 years, and that doesn’t take into consideration changing technology we wish to use it for. Much of the copper cables in use today will need to be replaced within the next 30 years. Thus is what Thodey is calling ‘maintenance’. I call it throwing good money after bad – just replace it all with fibre and in many cases you will be able to leave it alone for 100 years. Long term, fibre is the only rational, fiscally responsible option.

    And WTF was that nonsense about ‘decomposition’? He can’t be that stupid, can he? Surely that’s just a misdirection (knowing full well it is factually correct because he used the wrong word in the context of copper). That statement in particular really wound me up…

  15. Telstra described the network as being “five minutes to midnight” to a Senate committee in 2003. That was when they wanted the govt to grant a monopoly in exchange for building FTTN. Now they say the copper will last a hundred years, because they know Lib policy makes the worthless worth something again. These contradictory statements can’t both be right. That means they either lied to a Senate committee, or are lying to the public now. Throw the ACCC’s finding on their breaches of structural separation into the mix, it doesn’t look good for them. Same old Telstra.

    • Telstra described the network as being “five minutes to midnight” to a Senate committee in 2003.

      Allegory? Five minutes doesn’t literally mean 300 seconds till expiry. It could mean sweating it for a final decade in a 100 year cycle, with a full revolution of the time-arrow representing 100 years.

      That was when they wanted the govt to grant a monopoly in exchange for building FTTN.

      No, Telstra did not ask for legislation to be passed to ban overbuilding by competitors. You have that confused with NBNco. Telstra wanted to implement a wholesale bitstream FTTN model. Funny enough, that’s precisely NBNco’s business model (wholesale bitstream as opposed to fully unbundled). You don’t see NBNco allowing access seekers to randomly attach backhaul to any part of the NBN they like. Funny how if Telstra does something, it’s “bad”, but if NBNco does it, it’s “all great”!

      Now they say the copper will last a hundred years, because they know Lib policy makes the worthless worth something again.

      Copper is not worthless. Ask BTUK, AT&T, Deutsche Telekom…. better yet, contact Alcatel-Lucent and ask them how many copper-based broadband tech product units they ship per quarter all around the world to leading telcos.

      Throw the ACCC’s finding on their breaches of structural separation into the mix, it doesn’t look good for them. Same old Telstra.

      Sorry, when did Telstra “breach structural separation”?

      • I’ll preface this by saying I don’t agree with what Phil just said completely, particularly the last point about “Telstra breaching terms of separation”; however:

        Allegory? Five minutes doesn’t literally mean 300 seconds till expiry. It could mean sweating it for a final decade in a 100 year cycle, with a full revolution of the time-arrow representing 100 years.

        And so in context of this article, i.e. suggesting that you can double the lifespan of the network, is in line with this… how exactly?

        No, Telstra did not ask for legislation to be passed to ban overbuilding by competitors. You have that confused with NBNco. Telstra wanted to implement a wholesale bitstream FTTN model. Funny enough, that’s precisely NBNco’s business model (wholesale bitstream as opposed to fully unbundled). You don’t see NBNco allowing access seekers to randomly attach backhaul to any part of the NBN they like. Funny how if Telstra does something, it’s “bad”, but if NBNco does it, it’s “all great”!

        Umm, neither provider actually wanted the legislation you just suggested. I think you misunderstood what this was referring too.

        Telstra didn’t want to be “forced” to give up their network without adequate compensation. Notice that now they are getting adequate compensation they’re not really resisting the government’s plan, and that they’ve basically said to the Coalition “We want the amount we’re getting (or more), or we will back out of the deal.”

        Copper is not worthless. Ask BTUK, AT&T, Deutsche Telekom…. better yet, contact Alcatel-Lucent and ask them how many copper-based broadband tech product units they ship per quarter all around the world to leading telcos.

        You realise you’re responding to a hyperbole without refuting the central point, that it is unlikely copper based solutions will maintain their value for the next century?

        If you’re going to refute hyperbole and misinformation, please, for the love of sanity, have correct information yourself. You just make the debate descend into effectively who can yell the loudest.

        • And so in context of this article, i.e. suggesting that you can double the lifespan of the network, is in line with this… how exactly? …it is unlikely copper based solutions will maintain their value for the next century

          If you undertake any requisite maintenance, 100 years from now, you can still transmit a digital signal through that piece of copper running into your house and torrent terabytes of data a month.

          That’s all David Thodey is saying. Nowhere in that article does he claim that the relative economic value [proposition] of a copper-based last mile network vis-a-vis other forms of networks will be sustained for another century.

          A copper network will always have positive economic value because the physical capabilities will, at the very worst, remain similar over time. Just like technology in a crapped-out, old bomb from the 1970s is inferior to current generations of automobiles, but will still provide positive economic utility and get you from point A to point B. See the old cars they drive around in Cuba? Or notice the antiquated vehicles that some car collectors cruise around on weekends? See how these cars still always hold some value?

          Hypothetically, if the Government were to ban the usage of optic fiber in communications networks for eternity, are you saying copper still won’t be used because it is so crappy and we will all revert to snail mail?

          If you’re going to refute hyperbole and misinformation, please, for the love of sanity, have correct information yourself. You just make the debate descend into effectively who can yell the loudest.

          You were saying….?

          • So let me get this straight, your arguement here is that because if we look at something in a static reference frame it is possible to remain useful, and by extension will always have a useful value.

            Further, it is worth undergoing the maintain of this object despite that under the relative reference frame it is clear that the technology is rapidly depreciating. In essence you’re saying, in the context of the NBN debate, that the network could operate for another hundred years is not at all affected by the increasing relative costs compared to alternatives? Which is false, and why we have pointed out the inconsistencies of Thodey’s statements relative to another Telstra statement.

            I am therefore saying that you are deliberately ignoring context in order to make a suggestion that the copper network is worth retaining,which is misinformation.

          • So let me get this straight

            Even the local town drunk walks straighter with a bottle in both hands.

            Further, it is worth undergoing the maintain of this object despite that under the relative reference frame it is clear that the technology is rapidly depreciating.

            It is worth retaining the copper elements in the network and incurring the necessary maintenance if the revenue generated by the network continues to outweigh the costs.

            In essence you’re saying, in the context of the NBN debate, that the network could operate for another hundred years is not at all affected by the increasing relative costs compared to alternatives?

            Of course, any owner of the fixed line network would continuously assess whether to upgrade the network after taking into account the differentials in maintenance costs, incremental capital costs associated with the new build and enhanced revenue streams.

            One extreme is retaining all the copper elements and incurring zero capital costs. The other extreme option is to replace all the copper elements with fiber and incur maximum capital costs. The FTTN model replaces most of the copper with fiber but stops right at the point where the incremental costs begin to outweigh the benefits from higher revenue. The copper maintenance bill is also drastically reduced.

            the inconsistencies of Thodey’s statements relative to another Telstra statement.

            There are no inconsistencies. The only “inconsistency” is your inability to distinguish between a statement about the chemical lifespan of copper and a statement about the economic lifespan of a last-mile network that uses copper elements. A business case that shows FTTP offering superior economic value to FTTN would not change (much) if you factored in “brand new copper” for FTTN!!!

            I am therefore saying that you are deliberately ignoring context in order to make a suggestion that the copper network is worth retaining,which is misinformation.

            Retaining portions of the copper elements and leveraging them to provide a better service to customers via FTTN technologies constitutes “misinformation”. So, BTUK, AT&T and Chorus NZ’s real-life FTTN networks are “PROJECT MISINFORMATION”? (Might I remind you, both BTUK and Choruz NZ continued to expand FTTN into rural areas after announcing FTTPoD for urban areas.)

          • Even the local town drunk walks straighter with a bottle in both hands.

            An insult? Good start.

            It is worth retaining the copper elements in the network and incurring the necessary maintenance if the revenue generated by the network continues to outweigh the costs.

            Not if replacement over the network and resulting maintenance from the new network over a reasonable period of time will work out less than continuing the operate the network.

            If this were true phone providers would be continuing to operate 2G networks because they are still technically profitable.

            Of course, any owner of the fixed line network would continuously assess whether to upgrade the network after taking into account the differentials in maintenance costs, incremental capital costs associated with the new build and enhanced revenue streams.

            One extreme is retaining all the copper elements and incurring zero capital costs. The other extreme option is to replace all the copper elements with fiber and incur maximum capital costs. The FTTN model replaces most of the copper with fiber but stops right at the point where the incremental costs begin to outweigh the benefits from higher revenue. The copper maintenance bill is also drastically reduced.

            This difference in cost only works out to be profitable if you own the network, NBNCo doesn’t, they have to acquire it. This acquisition tips the balance in FTTHs favour. Even then, an the cost advance WILL expire within 100 years. How is this so hard for you to understand?

            There are no inconsistencies. The only “inconsistency” is your inability to distinguish between a statement about the chemical lifespan of copper and a statement about the economic lifespan of a last-mile network that uses copper elements. A business case that shows FTTP offering superior economic value to FTTN would not change (much) if you factored in “brand new copper” for FTTN!!!

            You’re defending his statements only by conveniently removing context. This is bad.

            Retaining portions of the copper elements and leveraging them to provide a better service to customers via FTTN technologies constitutes “misinformation”. So, BTUK, AT&T and Chorus NZ’s real-life FTTN networks are “PROJECT MISINFORMATION”? (Might I remind you, both BTUK and Choruz NZ continued to expand FTTN into rural areas after announcing FTTPoD for urban areas.)

            It is worth retaining, in the short term, for an incumbent. Not for NBNCo, which isn’t, or in the long term, e.g. 100 years, as Thodey suggests!

          • Time to knock the “only an incumbent can do it” FUD you been spreading on the head once and for all:

            The incumbent telco currently charges $30/mth wholesale ARPU. Say, the cost of FTTN build is incremental $10/mth in capital servicing costs. The incumbent has to charge $40/mth to remain square financially.

            Suppose a third party acquires the wholesale business from the incumbent for a lump sum price tag equivalent to capitalising $30 in monthly charges. The cost of FTTN build to the new entrant is also $10/mth. To “break-even”, the third party also charges $40/mth — no different to the incumbent!!!

          • “Time to knock the “only an incumbent can do it” FUD you been spreading on the head once and for all:”

            The question is why would a competitor do FTTN rather than FTTP?

            You are aware of the concept of asymmetric information? It’s a common area of market failure and would apply to the dispersed and hidden state of various copper lines.
            Telstra would know far more about where the bad copper and asbestos pits are and any competitor bidding for that network wouldn’t know about those problems to bid appropriately. Telsra could probably quickly select large areas to provide some FTTN roll out which would avoid these problems, but that doesn’t allow for universal access, or structural separation.

            So, any purchase price would have to be discounted for that risk, just like a used car, but that’s not the key problem.

            The copper ULL price for Telstra is $16/month, which at a 10% IRR gives a capital amount of $1920 for your proposed purchase price. (using the NBN co 7% which for a 100 year copper is appropriate would give a $2700 purchase amount , but lets make this fair for FTTN.)
            NBN co is running fiber averages $2300/line based on actual roll out figures. Transit fiber installation would be comparable with FTTN, there is the drop conduit purchase for NBN co as part of the Telstra deal, which adds about $800 to that over the years so lets add that to the NBN cost giving $3100/line.
            Which means that you need to build the nodes, and transition the copper for less than $1200/line, including node installation, copper remediation and customer equipment, to have a lower capital cost.
            All this while not being able to offer the higher speeds of FTTH to earn a higher ARPU and having a unrelentingly higher opex for power and copper maintenance, as opposed to the cheaper to operate FTTH network.

            So, again, why would a competitor do FTTN? The business case doesn’t add up based on the real numbers, so don’t hide behind assumptions and ambit claims to push a phantom competitor.

          • Your assumption is that the incumbent will sell their asset for book cost. They won’t, therefore the new provider will have to engage in more capital recovery.

          • Your ‘they won’t’ is based on what? total conjecture of course, the copper use for FTTN may well be contained within the $11b Telstra is legally contracted with the NBN Co to shut down the copper and HFC BB.

            How about you wait until after the election to find out what actually happens with Telstra negotiations rather than making definite statements on subject matter you don’t know anything about.

          • So CopperRoids, please explain again how FTTN is better value for money when the gov investment in both plans is virtually identical?

            And while you are at it, please explain how FTTN is going to provide the digital infrastructure we need for the next 50+ years?

            So far all you done is sprout BS ideology and I’d like you to answer the above questions!

          • How about you wait until after the election to find out what actually happens with Telstra negotiations rather than making definite statements on subject matter you don’t know anything about.

            Because the answer to that question needs to be determined before the election? Just a guess…

            And Conroy/NBNCo didn’t buy/lease the copper (which costs Telstra $1b a year to maintain http://www.zdnet.com/au/telstra-boss-seeks-money-for-copper-conroy-7000017126/), under their plan it’s pretty well worthless to everyone concerned (and a money pit for Telstra). Under Malcolms plan, it has lots and lots of value though…

          • @Djos

            ‘ please explain again how FTTN is better value for money when the gov investment in both plans is virtually identical?’

            It’s not identical, that’s why it is better value:

            CAPEX: Coalition $20.4b Labor $37.4b

            FUNDING: Coalition $29.5b Labor $44.1b

            ‘And while you are at it, please explain how FTTN is going to provide the digital infrastructure we need for the next 50+ years?’

            Who said it it is the only option for the next 50+ years?

            ‘ I’d like you to answer the above questions!’

            I have.

          • @CopperRoids, nope investment from an LNP gov according to their own doco will be $29B, the investment from the ALP gov is $30B according to published biz plan – so in financial terms for a project of this scale there is next to no difference.

            The ALP have been smarter as they know by the time the NBN has spent $30B it will be making enuf return from the rest of the network to self fund the the remainder of the network build and therefore they dont need to inject anymore cash into the project!

            The LBN on the other hand will require billions more gov money by 2020 to then convert the network into FTTP because the Libs where too shortsighted to do it properly the 1st time! (assuming they get in)

          • @Djos

            ‘he investment from the ALP gov is $30B according to published biz plan – so in financial terms for a project of this scale there is next to no difference.’

            Required funding from the Labor 2012-2015 Business Plan is $44.1b, Page 79 Section 9.11.1 Determining NBN Co’s Funding requirement.

            Where do you get $30b from?

          • Yes the total alp nbn cost is $44B but the gov investment is $30B – go do the research yourself, the info is out there but you just choose to ignore it!

          • “It is worth retaining the copper elements in the network and incurring the necessary maintenance”

            Your a Telstra shareholder/employee, aren’t you DT? ;o)

          • See the old cars they drive around in Cuba? Or notice the antiquated vehicles that some car collectors cruise around on weekends? See how these cars still always hold some value?

            Perhaps Cuba could raise it agricultural productivity above 0.4% if they…you know, invested in more modern equipment. And what “value” do vintage cars add to GDP?

      • “Allegory? Five minutes doesn’t literally mean 300 seconds till expiry. It could mean sweating it for a final decade in a 100 year cycle, with a full revolution of the time-arrow representing 100 years.”
        What 5 minutes to midnight does not mean is it will last 100 years as he stated. That was a desperate attempt to explain it away.

        “No, Telstra did not ask for legislation to be passed to ban overbuilding by competitors. You have that confused with NBNco. Telstra wanted to implement a wholesale bitstream FTTN model. Funny enough, that’s precisely NBNco’s business model (wholesale bitstream as opposed to fully unbundled). You don’t see NBNco allowing access seekers to randomly attach backhaul to any part of the NBN they like. Funny how if Telstra does something, it’s “bad”, but if NBNco does it, it’s “all great”!”
        Yes, a wholesale monopoly, just like now, a vertical monopoly. There is a big difference. Telstra has a long history of being anti competitive due to this vertical monopoly. Another desperate attempt.

        “Copper is not worthless. Ask BTUK, AT&T, Deutsche Telekom…. better yet, contact Alcatel-Lucent and ask them how many copper-based broadband tech product units they ship per quarter all around the world to leading telcos.”
        Please tell us? How many are to telcos who don’t own the copper? And what does that have to do with what he said about the Lib’s claim the copper is worthless and therefore free? You are supporting his argument that the copper has value.

        “Sorry, when did Telstra “breach structural separation”?”
        Read the news. They have been caught doing it just recent. Cancelling ISP orders and trying to steal their customers when shifting them to the NBN.

      • “Allegory? Five minutes doesn’t literally mean 300 seconds till expiry. It could mean sweating it for a final decade in a 100 year cycle, with a full revolution of the time-arrow representing 100 years.”

        Funny how Telstra was referring to, in your words, “sweating it for a final decade” back in 2003, which, if my maths hasn’t failed me, was a DECADE ago. It doesn’t help your argument that any FTTN build would necessitate sweating said copper for additional decades.

  16. I think it’ll keep going for another 100, but … you’ve got to keep things maintained

    Yeah, after finding a plastic bag tossed over the pillar of open wiring in my local area (during a week of heavy rain), you can call me skeptical on how much maintenance has been done.

    By the way, the photos from “Worst Photos of Australia’s Copper Network” that are in the exchanges are not bad at all. Copper pairs jumpered in open cages like that are perfectly OK, because it very rarely rains inside an exchange. The underground tunnels are a bit dirty but basically well maintained. Ignorant people react and say, “Oh that looks old, technology should be new!” but those people don’t know squat.

    Many of the photos look like in-building MDF wiring which is (strictly speaking) the responsibility of the building owner and not Telstra. Those are bad, but blame the cheapskate who is renting you the office, you have the same problem when he won’t maintain the bathroom, the lifts, the air conditioning, you know the deal. Same basic principle of maintenance being important, different guy to point the finger at.

    The real problem is where the pits and pillars are open to the elements and haven’t been covered or sealed properly. Thodey is completely 100% correct that copper does not decompose, but water does get into the joints if you let it. Even pure water and pure copper don’t cause problems, please note that the pipes to your hot water system are almost certainly made of copper.

    • You do understand how high frequency signals behave in oxidised copper cables, i.e cables with patina, thus dramatically reducing the effectiveness of VDSL broadband solutions because they rely on said high frequency?

      The copper might stay in the ground, but using it for Broadband solutions gets increasingly difficult.

      • Did you read what I wrote? I know I ask this often…

        “The real problem is where the pits and pillars are open to the elements and haven’t been covered or sealed properly”

        “water does get into the joints if you let it”

        Do you ever get patina in the middle of a long section of cable where the insulation is intact? Hmmm? Ever seen that? In my experience it tends to creep in from the ends.

        By the way, if you want to check how significant the patina effect is, then Wikipedia tells you that the highest ADSL frequency is 1100 kHz and a quick search for a skin depth calculator tells you that copper runs a skin depth of 0.062 mm at that frequency, and jumping back to Wiki we see typical copper patina is quoted as “just 0.05080–0.07620 mm in thickness” so it’s right on the borderline of what effects the signal. A short stretch of patina isn’t going to add much attenuation, but a long stretch is going to accumulate.

        Personally I think there’s more attenuation around the joint while the water is there because of a combination of factors. The water itself is never clean, so it works a bit like a short circuit. The joint contains dissimilar metals which accelerate corrosion right around the area that matters most. The observed effect tends to be that people get bad throughput while the pits are wet and good throughput at other times. This would suggest the water plays a more complex role than just encouraging patina (although it does that too).

        • This is actually the first time I’ve ever seen you say that and yes I did.

          Everything you eat is broadly correct, but you didn’t counter my point. It’s interesting you quote ADSL frequencies when you know very well the continued use of the copper requires bus use of VDSL that uses even higher bands! Bands that are affected by patina more significantly.

          • So what conclusions are you drawing here, none of the Telstra copper will support VDSL, some of it will some of it won’t, the bits that don’t because the cost to upgrade the copper either with new sections or redoing the joints is so high you might as well put in FTTH?

            Just as an aside if and when the Coalition NBN Co contract with Telstra to have access to the shorter copper section for FTTN minimum speeds will as per the Coalition policy be part of that contract, so if a particular residential link
            from a cabinet requires a copper upgrade to provide that minimum speed as per the Coalition policy that’s what Telstra will have to do.

          • Seriously, you bag best and 24/7 desperately try to prop up the inferior, distant second best (which considering the smaller footprint isn’t that much, if at all cheaper)…

            Why?

          • My God, that’s a new one!

            Telstra is apparently liable if the copper can’t meet the magic number Turnbull has specified? I would love to see them try to put that clause in and watch as “unacceptable risk” is thrown back at them.

            The conclusion I’m drawing is the state of the copper can’t be reliably determined and to gamble chat if is fine me an unacceptable risk.

          • That’s new one? so the Coalition NBN Co will negotiate with Telstra for use of the copper for FTTN on the basis that all it has to do is meet PSTN voice standards, and forget about any minimum data speeds as specified in the Coalition Policy?

          • You just went from one extreme to the other without considering alternative contract clauses or a mirror ground.

            I will not refute blatant Strawmans. Instead I would ask you to reply to the point I actually made: what makes you think Telstra will sign a minimum performance clause, especially one as high as 25Mbps considering the risk it will present the shareholders?

          • PSTN voice standards are far, far easier to meet that data standards, that’s an easy out for them…

  17. I think the debate has really drifted off the core of the issue.

    The real question is not “Can the copper be used for an FTTN?” (the answer is obviously “yes”, but involves a few ancillary questions like a big one, “How much?”).

    The real question should be “Should we use the copper?” (which will also involve those ancillary questions).

    Most of the “pro-LBN” retorts here totally ignore cost (of either buying/leasing the actual copper and/or the maintenance/remediation of it). Sure, the maintenance of the copper will be cut down by using FTTN, but considering the current cost to Telstra of the whole, even a partial amount of it will still be (to use a favourite technical term) non-negligible. Also, all sources (with Malcolm as the only dissenting opinion) expect the Liberals will need to pay extra for access to the copper.

    It’s fine for “pro-LBN folks to address these points some how, but to ignore them, or pretend the don’t exist, just means you’re failing to recognise the reality of the situation…

    • Inherent logic of FTTN for telcos is to reduce Cu maintenance by replacing most of it with fiber. In any event, vast majority of Cu maintenance expense is incurred in final 7% of footprint which remains untouched under Labor NBN plan!!! Massive FAIL argument!!

      • Define “replacing most”. What percentage have you seen touted?

        Also, under the NBN, the cost of maintaining the CAN is reduced to 7% of what it current;y costs (a saving of $930m a year!).

    • Yup. Fast, affordable, reliable and consistent service. Universal appeal and take-up.

      • I’m sorry, did you just suggest the CAN is like an extremely unhealthy burger?

        I’ll ignore the fervent ululation over how awesome copper is.

          • Considering his plan is to save a rotting carcass, I think the phrase “would you like flies with that” might be more appropriate!

            :-D

  18. Feelpinions from Thodey aside, it’s a good time to be talking up the Telstra network ahead of a General Election where the incoming government wants to sequester copper from a commercial entity.

    Because there’s absolutely no reason to re-affirm the inherent value of a copper network to a guy whom thinks he’ll get it for free.

    Telstra isn’t PMG; Turnbull will have to pay, quite a premium, to access that copper. Either leased, or outright. That price will potentially cause Turnbull’s costs to dwarf current NBN projections.

    • ‘Because there’s absolutely no reason to re-affirm the inherent value of a copper network to a guy whom thinks he’ll get it for free.’

      Where has the Coalition ever stated that will get for free?

      • In the policy released by Turnbull. There’s no indication of monetary spend on aquiring or leasing copper assets, such as the last mile.

        Speculation aside, until it’s clear what the cost to Turnbull will be for access to the CAN, either via lease or buying out the asset, I don’t think anyone is really in a position to claim what will be cheaper or faster to deploy.

        The negotiation with Telstra took over a year, just to allow partial infrastructure access, allowing the network build to start. If anyone presumes the negotiations are going to be short for the CAN itself, is a bit (imho) deluded.

        Turnbull may be many things, but i’ve not seen him swing a lightsaber about, lately.

      • CopperRoids, go watch the Turnbull vs Conroy debate, MT claimed multiple times he didn’t need to buy the PSTN because he reckons Conroy already had which is pure BS!

        And in interviews after that he’s claimed on several occasions that Telstra would just give him the copper!

      • @ Fibroid.

        My goodness, really?

        You get all narky when people suggest Telstra’s network could cost the Coalition.

        And now you get narky when people suggest the Coalition may be expecting it for free?

        Yes, yes, we’ve seen your word games before, to elude one’s point and then you argue pointlessly over semantics.

        Here of course, instead of looking at the current $11B which does not include utilisation of the the CAN, separately to any possible future deal for CAN utilisation (as everyone else is) you are combining the two and by doing so, arguing that any CAN deal won’t be free under any circumstances. But it appears that you are having an each way bet, that the CAN won’t cost more than the current $11B.

        So the crux… How much if any, over and above the already agreed to $11B do “you” believe the CAN would cost the Coalition?

        Note I’m not asking for proof but simply your opinion.

  19. Wow, the same three perpetual NBN detractors (two under even more new names) after years of relentlessly bagging every aspect of the NBN by arguing the most ridiculous, nit-picky points (and even inventing new non-existent ones)… are still here.

    But now, instead of inventing non-existent negativity to bag the NBN, they are inventing new non-existent positivity, to support FttN *sigh*

    Instead of promoting we do the job properly to aid all Aussies, they are now desperately trying to justify us accepting… spending almost as much on a smaller, shorter shelf life, vastly inferior, FttN network… which totally relies upon Telstra’s copper!

    Gee I wonder why anyone would be compelled to do this 24/7? *rolls eyes*

    More from your fellow conservative, but one with foresight, from abroad…

    http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2013/04/11/copper-wire-technology-whose-time-has-passed/

    “To continue to invest in antiquated copper technologies not only hurts consumers and providers, but also the economy-at-large by slowing investment, innovation and growth. Traditional copper networks are no longer applicable to the needs and benefits of today’s technologies.”

    Indeed… Mr. Forbes.

    • “Gee I wonder why anyone would be compelled to do this 24/7? *rolls eyes*”

      Probably because they are paid to do it at a guess.

  20. “The copper has been going well for 100 years, I think it’ll keep going for another 100, but … you’ve got to keep things maintained,”

    Which currently costs about $1 billion a year for voice grade quality. Assuming (unlikely) that a data grade copper network can be maintained for the same price, that is still an extra $1 billion each year, for each and every year, for the entire life of the network, that you must add to any FTTN implementation. If you go with FTTN for only 10 years before scrapping it and starting over with FTTP, that’s $10 billion you have to add to the cost of the interim network, and it is just one of MANY extra costs that simply don’t exist if you go FTTP.

    “[And] copper does not decompose.”
    No, it corrodes (hence the requirement for maintenance, see above).
    Generally where one piece of copper is connected to another piece of copper with slightly different chemical properties (and NO two batches of copper cable are exactly the same), IE at each and every cable joint in the network.

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