blog I’ve been quite optimistic about the speed at which NBN Co is rolling out its brownfields fibre infrastructure, but that optimism has been challenged today by what appears to be the inadvertent release of new statistics regarding the company’s rollout progress. Communications Day reported this morning, and ZDNet also reported, that stats retail ISP DeVoteD had published on its site NBN fibre rollout stats as at March 12 (since taken down). And the news isn’t good. CommsDay tells us (click here for the full article):
“DeVoteD group, a small RSP based in Victoria, provides comprehensive NBN rollout information via its website. This includes fibre statistics broken down by state, suburb and service class. As of this morning, the site showed 70,783 premises passed with fibre: 47,511 in brownfields, and 23,272 in greenfields estates.”
To understand why these statistics — which have been verified by NBN Co — are significant, we need to look at NBN Co’s month by month rollout progress as detailed in the set of graphs in this article about the delays with NBN Co contractor Syntheo. In short, in March NBN Co was expected to see a significant jump in the number of brownfields fibre premises it had passed — from 50,000 at the end of February to 75,000 at the end of March. The DeVoteD stats show that, almost halfway through March, NBN Co has not made significant progress on those stats.
The stats also give credence to claims by Shadow Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull in Federal Parliament last week that NBN Co was on the verge of announcing a downgrade in its network rollout targets. At the time, Turnbull said:
“I have talked about the cost here, but the speed of the rollout is a matter that we have also expressed great concern about. In 2010 the NBN Co’s business plan said that they will have passed 1.3 million premises by 30 June 2013. In August last year they reduced that down to a figure somewhat in excess of 300,000. Now, it is 286,000, and we understand they will shortly be announcing that they have not been able to meet that target either.”
Now I have to emphasise about these stats that I didn’t want to believe them. I went through and looked at what CommsDay and ZDNet had reported with a skeptical eye. After all, it wouldn’t be the first time that an Australian media outlet had fudged NBN numbers. However, the stats as reported, which NBN Co has verified, do show the company making poor progress towards its monthly targets.
Of course, we’re only talking about NBN Co being perhaps 12,000 or so fibre connections off at the moment for that period of March; it’s entirely possible that by the end of March it will be up to its 75,000 target for that month and that all will be happy again. In addition, NBN Co still has its big first half of 2013 ramp-up periods before it; it’s entirely possible it’s still broadly on track for its 286,000 projected target as at mid-2013. So let’s not jump down the rabbit hole too far just yet.
However, it would be remiss of me not to highlight these stats and remind NBN Co that this is the year it really has to deliver. These kinds of warning signs are not great news.
Image credit: NBN Co
I don’t really care, NBN needs to happen, those focused on numbers are for political purpose only.
Yep. Needs to happen alright.
Doesn’t matter how slow it goes hey. So in 2020 when they announce another downgrade to repeatedly missed targets and are only just connecting the 5 millionth house, with $30 billion spent, it will be time to double down and throw another $50 billion at it to get the next 5 million premises connected. It’s ok, it’s “off budget” so yeah it doesn’t matter.
“So in 2020 when they announce another downgrade to repeatedly missed targets and are only just connecting the 5 millionth house, with $30 billion spent, it will be time to double down and throw another $50 billion at it to get the next 5 million premises connected”
Not going to happen. The contractors have a fixed contract, if it takes them longer than expected it will not cost NBNCo more, in fact if there are penalty clauses it may cost them less.
“those focused on numbers are for political purpose only”
A positive from it is that it’s good to know that those focused on the numbers finally realise that getting more people onto fibre sooner is important, if it wasn’t they wouldn’t be complaining since they already know stopping the project and/or switching to FttN wont get them the faster speeds they want any sooner…
Don’t forget according to these people in past arguments there are no apps that require faster speeds than what we get on ADSL2+ now so these delays should be of little consequence to them. It’s good that they’ve finally seen the light.
Where are you getting the 75,000 end of March target? The graph in an NBNCo media release at the end of January shows 90,000 as the target for the end of March.
http://delimiter.com.au/2013/02/19/reality-check-nbn-syntheo-delays-not-significant/
“Over the next few months, it expects to hit targets of just over 50,000 (at the end of February), about 75,000 (at the end of March) and 110,000 (at the end of April). Then the figure is expected to jump dramatically to around 200,000 at the end of May and then to about 286,000 at the end of June.”
Self-referencing?
Check the graph at the bottom of the NBNCo media release on 29 January 2013 titled ”
34,500 Australian homes and businesses now using the NBN “. I clearly shows the target for end-March as ~90,000. I’ll measure against the NBNCo’s published target.
http://nbnco.com.au/assets/media-releases/2013/rollout-update-29-Jan-2013.pdf
CMOT you are underestimating the speed at which NBNco shift the goal posts.
January 29th : http://www.nbnco.com.au/assets/images/brownfields-premises-passed.jpg
February 12th: http://delimiter.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/premises-passed-2.jpg
Of course both are hard to interpret due to Conroys love of graphs without numbers, but as he helpfully suggests we can “get out the rulers”
Kudos for writing this article Renai, I really didn’t think you would. I think the title phrasing could do with some work, the details weren’t “leaked” they were publicly available for some time and only got taken down once the media found them. They provided a clear and useful purpose in informing potential customers about the availability of the NBN in their area, NBNco only got worried when that clarity started providing some actual transparency on the rollout!
Also “only 12000” is a little misleading. What you are saying is they are “only” 91% down on their target for March.
I would also like to draw your attention to the strong possibility you were lied to in the response to your FOI request.
The Historical footprint list that the Devoted data was based around is published weekly to RSP’s
http://www.nbnco.com.au/industry/service-providers/newsletter/march-2012.html
Making the claims about the figures you wanted being outside the normal reporting requirements misleading at the least, and bordering on an outright lie.
I am pretty sure adding SUM(column) to an excel spreadsheet released weekly does not require months of work with multiple departments collating information from multiple databases as was claimed in the FOI response.
You might want to consider pursuing this.
http://www.righttoknow.org.au/help/unhappy
“CMOT you are underestimating the speed at which NBNco shift the goal posts.”
Ooookay, so we measure them against the JCNBN baseline? The one that shows them passing 300,000 by end-June? The one they’ve already disowned.
In any sensible project known to man you can’t just shift the target whenever you feel like it. Why is the NBNCo getting away with this?
Oh … and weren’t the disowned JCNBN targets from October 2012? I think the ones from the media release on 29 January 2013 supersede those.
The question is – will electing the LNP into power speed up or slow down this process? The answer should be obvious.
Can’t wait to see the “Ramp up” graph come May.
52,000 Brownfields actually connected in May, with a “ramp up” of only an extra 234,000 new connections needed in June to meet the laughable 286,000 number. If you added the actual July and August figures it’d look like a giant finger to the Australian tax payer.
And lets not forget the government/NBN reckons it’s going to soon be doing 6000 connections PER DAY, EVERY DAY, WITHOUT FAIL.
I almost spat my coffee out with laughter when I read that. 6000 Per DAY? Was this written by adults? Anyway with even a hint on I.T expertise(or commonsense) realises this is fantasy land stuff.
I actually support the NBN roll-out, but it’s being run by a bunch of incompetents, including the $2 Million a Year dud called Mike Quigley. Apparantly some don’t care how long it takes or how much it costs, so why not get Humphrey B. Bear build it.. he might even do a better job and stop setting ridiculous targets he’ll never meet.
“to meet the laughable 286,000 number.”
Is that ‘laughable’ like Turnbull’s ‘extraordinary’ w.r.t. commenced or constructed at end of 2012? You’d think by now people would learn that targets aren’t discreditable until they have been missed.
“And lets not forget the government/NBN reckons it’s going to soon be doing 6000 connections PER DAY, EVERY DAY, WITHOUT FAIL.”
No not every day, on average. You do realise that they don’t work weekends right? And they know that if they miss a day for heavy rain or what have you they have to make that up? So some days they will go faster. Hard to believe right, how could they ever plan for delays? Crazy!
“I almost spat my coffee out with laughter when I read that. 6000 Per DAY? Was this written by adults? Anyway with even a hint on I.T expertise(or commonsense) realises this is fantasy land stuff.”
Really, so when HFC passed 5,000 a day with a lot less contractors working on it, what was that? A figment of the imagination? Are those HFC cables fantasy as well*?
“I actually support the NBN roll-out, but it’s being run by a bunch of incompetents, including the dud called Mike Quigley.”
Evidence?
“Apparantly some don’t care how long it takes or how much it costs, so why not get Humphrey B. Bear build it.. he might even do a better job and stop setting ridiculous targets he’ll never meet.”
See first paragraph.
*well, I guess that would explain the performance and patchy availability.
You do realise the difference between Connections and Homes Passed? 6000/day is the connections target. Currently there’s at least a 1 month wait in the ACT for a connection after your home is ready for service. They’re hopelessly behind on all fronts.
No, a premises passed is connected. You’re thinking of active connections, they have lower targets for that, and they haven’t been discussed here.
Charles,
People might actually get FTTN while they are still living because FTTN simply requires upgrading the Node with a Cabinet and a single fibre link, it doesn’t require physically wiring 6000 houses per day with fibre optic cable and all the digging, trenching and stringing involved.
FTTN won’t be as fast, but it will certainly be quicker to deliver. The way FTTH NBN is going we are all going to be in retirement homes before it becomes available.
“FTTN won’t be as fast, but it will certainly be quicker to deliver.”
Please explain to me how/why it will be “quicker to deliver” (and don’t just cop out and say “because they’ll be reusing the copper”. the copper will need to be negotiated and repaired in many areas to be usable).
Thanks in advance.
New Zealand got the job done and finished in three years. Admittedly, to 80 something percent of the population, but that’s the advantage of picking the low hanging fruit first.
Hmm, yes, they did and NOW they’re installing FTTH to 70% of the country. What does that tell you?
Further, Chorus, being a created as a result of the splitting Telecom NZ, owns the copper, NBN Co does not, and Telstra have said they don’t want to neogiociate the deal for use of the conducts, which means that NBNCo, is going to have buy/lease the copper to roll out FTTN.
It detracts nothing at all from the SPEED of the FTTN rollout, which was the point of Tel’s comment, unless you have anything to add about the SPEED of the NZ FTTH rollout relative to the FTTN.
So, you’re just going to ignore my further appended comment then?
Sorry, which particular comment are you referring to?
Don’t play coy. You know as well as I do getting a deal signed with Telstra takes time. How long did the original NBN conduit and ducting deal take? The same problem applies to securing the copper for NBNCo to do FTTN. Hence why I mentioned in reply to “time”, not to mention the added cost.
“because FTTN simply requires upgrading the Node”
That’s not true as most of these “Nodes” don’t yet exist. A powerless pillar in the street is not a node in any reasonable sense of the word.
Remember, FTTN requires circa 80,000 powered nodes with fibre running to them. That means completely upgrading any existing nodes and building, installing, powering and connecting a huge number of new nodes.
And that’s not even considering any integration into the existing NBN POIs.
Hardly my definition of “simple”.
Don’t forget the cost of the power to run it all. that will be passed on to the consumer. Plus the cost of a new modem we will need to purchase, or will my adsl2 modem magically start syncing to 50meg?
Ah yes, how expensive running power to run a POTS telephone line. These are nonsense arguments. Sure there is fibre gear and VDSL2 gear in the cabinets, what do you think is at the end of your FTTH connections? Cotton candy?
As to the VDSL2 modem “price” it could be paid for by NBN like it currently is. I personally think user should pay because there is no such thing as a free lunch.
As to the 80,000 nodes needed number it’s another fantasy. You can have as many or as little node cabinets as you want though 2km maximum distance from premises would be a target to keep the VDSL2 in the upper side of the speed spectrum. Of course putting nodes where there currently is a pillar is the easiest solution.
Ah yes, how expensive running power to run a POTS telephone line. These are nonsense arguments. Sure there is fibre gear and VDSL2 gear in the cabinets, what do you think is at the end of your FTTH connections? Cotton candy?”
You are completely wrong.
At the end of the FTTH connections is one of 121 POI’s. There is no powered gear at each of the FTTH pillars, there is only power in the 121 POIs. The pillars in a FTTH deployment (the equivalent of the 80,000 powered FTTN pillars) are passive, ie no powered equipment, optical interconnections.
At the end of your copper tail – at one of the 80,000 FTTN pillars is a powered VDSL2 box with a fibre up-link of some description.
So; you only have to run power to 121 sites (which already have power); not 80,000 in an FTTN example.
Obviously; you are correct and you can make a “cheaper” so called cheap FTTN. But; diminishing returns. You can also spend “0” dollars; and get people “up-to” 24 megabits an average of 6 and a minimum of 3.
I find that preferable to spending 16 billion dollars and getting an average of 12 megabits.
Reference: [Wikipedia Passive_optical_network].
Please learn to better inform your position. (Your position is valid; some of your underlying information is wrong).
Truth Hurts,
Your argument regarding as few cabinets as you want just highlights the false hood in even comparing NBN to the Lib Alternative.
Under the current TA/MT plan we have no guarantee of speeds, no plan as to the actual roll-out schedule, no real knowledge of key infrastructure spending, no estimates for cost or time for contract negotiations and no idea of the cost of plans once the build is completed. If Turnbull installs cabinets every 2km, this would just be a waste of money for 50% of the population as the available speeds aren’t likely to improve appreciably, particularly without wasting more money by replacing the existing copper.
The truth does hurt if you actually know what the truth is… I suggest you find out.
Have to agree here. The power costs are minimal, and havent been an issue to date with the copper network we’ve enjoyed these past few decades. Its a cost, but you’re talking about cents rather than $1000’s.
I’d more be talking up the line rental charge that wont go away. That pushes your comm’s cost up by default for a lot of people, but can be taken out of the equation (to a point) for a FttP connection.
You’re forgetting that adding nodes in a FTTN network would require constructing two or three new power stations just to power all the nodes.
Where did you get that from Tom? I’m looking at the current network, which requires power all the way to the phone at home. Under a FttN scheme, I expect the power required currently would be replaced by a power source to the node which would then power the last mile copper connection. Not much more power, if any, than it takes to power our current copper lines.
I dont want FttN (that should be clear if you’ve seen many of my comments), but the power argument isnt a strong one. If people want to argue the higher cost of connecting to FttN, then this isnt where those higher costs are going to come from.
I think Tom’s comment was definitely tongue in cheek GG.
:)
Please don’t speak for other people on issues of which you have no understanding, and who do not agree with you in any way.
Thanks
IIRC there is a youtube video of Rod Tucker making the suggestion that FTTN would require new power stations.
A quick google search shows it referenced here: http://www.abc.net.au/technology/articles/2012/11/16/3634499.htm
Just search for ‘power station’ in the article.
I think the power argument is stronger than you make out. In that the FTTN cabinets are (to the best of my knowledge) in addition to the existing CAN configuration and would require civil works to connect power to each of the, potentially, 70,000 cabinets. Though I don’t necessarily believe that 2 or 3 power stations would be required.
And, no Alain, based on the reference I don’t think that comment was tongue in cheek.
don’t forget there’s 70,000 aircons that need to be powered as well
Where can I find this “Air conditioning unit” in this picture?
http://cdn-static.zdnet.com/i/r/story/13/39/293663/photos-inside-telstras-nodes_3-620x.jpg?hash=BGSvBQquZz
Can the NBN’ers please stop spreading FTTN FUD.
If you turn off 300 ADSL2+ POT lines at the exchange and then turn on 300 POT lines at the VDSL2 Node cabinet, how much extra power are you using? I’ll give you a clue… it starts with F and ends with All.
Actually the Nodes will be much closer than the exchange to peoples actual houses, so there may actually be a power saving(less resistance in the lines).
I’m sorry, but you do realise that VDSL uses more power because it requires more signalling equipment than ADSL2+ right? You do realise that adding in an extra length of AON PtP between the exchange and cabinet uses more power right? You do realise that VDSL produces more heat than ADSL2?
All these things mean that it’ll use more power. A significant amount of power compared to SFA too.
So how many NEW power stations were required for the Belgium and Poland FTTN rollouts?
Won’t need new power stations but the difference in power between FttN and FttH is significant and could lead to some stations being shut down.
Shut down? No, our thirst for power will mostly definitely make up the difference, not to mention that both options use more power than the current setup anyway.
Like I said, I don’t necessarily believe it would require new power stations. But I phrase it that way because I do believe it would require more power and not insignificantly so. It would have to push current power plants above current sustainable capacity before it even needed one. As to whether that is likely I don’t have the figures nor the inclination or time to find them. It is an important factor IMHO but not a huge one.
@AJ
So in the countries I mentioned what power stations were shut down because of FTTN?
Can I…
And in the countries he mentioned how many power stations remained open?
There all three silly questions out of the way now.
aka Sam gave the source I was looking for :)
TheTruthHurts,
Yes, MAYBE the rollout would have been faster if we started with FTTN from the BEGINNING but we are already in the process of a roll-out. Everything has to go back to the drawing board if we were to go FTTN now. So, as it currently stands, FTTN is actually likely to take longer. Don’t forget that the negotiations required for use of Telstra’s copper will take just as long, if not longer, to form an agreement on.
People keep falsely assuming that we can just flip a switch and move to FTTN, it doesn’t work that way.
“FTTN simply requires upgrading the Node with a Cabinet and a single fibre link, it doesn’t require physically wiring 6000 houses per day with fibre optic cable and all the digging, trenching and stringing involved.”
FTTN will require 10’s of thousands of nodes to be connected to the electricity supply. If you ever had anything to do with a telecommunications project you would know that the single largest delay to their completion is connection of electricity supply.
Telstra for instance has put a huge effort into fuel cell research to provide power for infrastructure that they are waiting to get connected months after the build is completed. These ante not remote sites where generators could be used but urban areas where noise is a problem.
Whats powering those light posts out on the street? What about traffic lights?
You run it down the pole underground to the node which no doubt will be nearby a power pole. This isn’t rocket science folks.
Are you serious? you really think it is that easy? wow.
Explain whats so hard about it?
What does the council do when they install a new set of traffic lights at an intersection?
BTW, looking at the Telstra Node cabinet picture and i’m still looking for that hidden alumina smelter hidden in the cabinet that will require 3 new power plants to be built. I mean this is fantasy land stuff.
VDSL2 requires significantly more power than ADSL2+?…. show some evidence! Logic and commonsense says that’s BS.
Actually logic and common sense shows the opposite. As do the the facts.
This paper shows power consumption for a service.
On page 5 there is a table that shows power consumption. It shows that an ADSL2+ customer will use about 2-4 W/subscriber, where as VDSL2 will use 6-10W/subscriber.
Even more telling is that GPON uses 0.4-1.6W/subscriber. I think this is only for the end equipment, and there have been advances in VDSL2 power consumption since this was published, but the point still remains, VDSL2 uses more power than ADSL2.
I explained using common sense terms as to why above, but if you want evidence, here it is.
Nice strawman. Nobody has said it will need more power than ADSL, it will need more power then FttP. The problem is has compared to ADSL is that power will need to be hook up to tens of thousands of nodes out in the street instead of to a couple hundred exchanges. Saying that there is usually a power pole nearby is all well and good, but that doesn’t mean the job of hooking up the node doesn’t have to be done.
Actually, I did say that. So it wasn’t a strawman. See the paper I linked above for further details. :)
A FTTN cabinet consumes about 1200 watts and services 300-400 premises.
A FTTH NTU consumes about 5-8 watts and is required in every home end point.
The deal breaker power demands of FTTN is what exactly?
No Alain. No.
Not only is this strawman because we specifically talking about comparing ADSL2+ power consumption with VDSL2, hence why I linked the above paper, but also as you have been present during the conversations where we have discussed the power requirements of both FTTN and FTTH, so I’m wondering why you’re even debating this.
If you want more empirical proof then how about this paper, to add to the one I linked above, that shows that FTTN uses more power than GPON FTTH, and that GPON even uses less than current DSL technology.
It is worth noting that PtP fibre uses about the same as FTTN, for anyone interested.
I think that’s a touch unfair because both FTTH and FTTN require powered NTU’s in every home.
1200 W at the outrageous price of 25c per kWh would be $7.20 per day or about $220 per month. Let’s divide that amongst customers and get approx $1 per customer per month. Certainly not a deal breaker. At a 7% stated return, the $1 per month would pay the bare interest on a capital investment of $170 per customer… certainly not enough to pay for labour rates to drag fiber through ducts.
In greenfields</b? the labour rate is about the same dragging copper or fiber, so in that case, might as well drag fiber… which was already happening with Opticom and a bunch of others, before the market was so rudely interfered with.
The market for Greenfields may have been strong but in Brownfields it was practically non existent. You would get HFC, if you were lucky, or ADSL, unless you were unlucky, and the incumbent had no interest in installing FTTN, a cheap upgrade that would have provided considerable benefits, without government intervention, as demonstrated by the OPEL and original NBN tenders.
I like the fact that you isolate Greenfields, where FTTH providers can still do pretty much exactly the same thing they were doing before, under the new regulations.
FTTN isn’t going to give me anymore than I’ve already got,Turnbull’s proposed Universal Service Obligation for his proposed FTTN is only 12Mbs, he hasn’t yet committed the coalition to anything more. (VDSL 80Mbs which would necessitate more fibre to 4 times the number of nodes since they will have to be in UK experience not more than 400m from the node) hence is going to cost a lot more than his previous “Last Mile” pronouncements and cost guesses of 15 Billion and is he going to add the cost of the Telstra infrastructure to that which is minimum of 11 Billion.
So far he has promised me zilch and left me with cable that dies in peak use times and disappears altogether when it rains, sometimes for weeks.
Upload from my current address well it would be quicker to post DVD’s.
I am a little amused by the concern about the NBN Co being on time and reaching target by 30 June 2013.
My area is currently under construction and I have seen them working at running out that green cable. Now it is almost certain that the area is going to be lit up by 30 June. When that happens it will add close to 12,000 premises in one hit. I wonder how many more areas are going to be lit up before 30 June. Is it possible that there are 20 areas who are in the same position as we are?
Our local stats are:
at present NIL passed;
in the next 3 months 12,000 passed.
To put it simply we are not going to know whether or not NBN Co have reached their June 2013 target until after 30 June.
Stats about the roll out are really meaningless because what is true today can change enormously tomorrow just by the flick of a switch.
Are the NBN Co running on schedule in brownfields? I can’t say for certain but I can say unequivocally that in my area they appear to be running on time and I haven’t seen any authoritative report that shows that NBN Co are hiding or misrepresenting the situation. Which is something I can’t say about some of our press and Politicians..
While I see numbers that are hosted on a third party site; I still don’t see anything that indicates that by the end of march they can’t activate what, 5 FSAMS?
What kind of update schedule did this website have? When was it last updated to reflect the NBNs availability?
Does premises past figure (that we are basing this off) also indicate “Premises available for fibre” (as this website was reporting)?
A couple of questions. And I am now very interested in the next official announcement by NBN co.
I hope it doesn’t get bogged down; but am not willing to brush it off as inconsequential. I would like to point out though, that a small slip in targets early on does not necessarily imply that the project is doomed to delays and inevitable cost overruns and failure.
What is more important is the public image of the company/government. Which won’t come off so well (even if the actual rollout *could* catch up; it won’t help if the public support is lost).
Hmm questions answerd in commsday article.
Not so good answers.
I actually don’t see the problem. They’re in a ramp up phase, have a huge number of pending contracts right now, as Bob.H has pointed out its not actually a smooth and consistent trickle, it comes in jolts of a couple of thousand as a new FSA comes online.
As I said yesterday, so what, they need to triple their rollout speed. Okay, so they triple it.
I can understand your concern, but
why would NBNCo be like “Yeah that’s right, what of it?” if they think there’s a problem.
I too am not rushing to panic just yet. If the target date passes and it fails then that is greater cause for concern but until then I’ll just wait patiently.
The main concern I have is the conclusion some people will come to from this if it happens. At this stage while shifting to FTTN is an option, there is a very high burden of proof on those who say a FTTN rollout will be quicker this far into the NBN rollout. Telstra and ACCC negotiations (rushing this when Telstra is holding all the cards will result in a bad deal for NBN co), FTTN test sites (rushing this could lead to mistakes or lower productivity in the rollout), condition of the copper network and labour involved to bring it back up to scratch (if the network is below a certain quality there must be a point where the ‘bang for buck’ of FTTN is lost). I would also like to know the time frame of when MT thinks we will need to upgrade to FTTP.
Having said all that, that is only for short term gain. Medium-long term gain I see no evidence FTTN has any merits what so ever and I still rather strongly support FTTP. I do care how much it costs and how long it takes to build but in saying that I think we will need a FTTP network and if things aren’t done carefully and the Telstra deal is rushed for the sake of building FTTN quicker I have great concern we will be left with a much harder and much more expensive path to building FTTP.
On a final note, I really don’t care what political party is in power to build the NBN, I only care about the policy. If MT was to concede that FTTP has great medium-long term merits and he should consider continuing the FTTP and focus on overcoming issues like connecting MDUs to the network instead of focusing on all his fact less sound bites I would be more likely to support him. I really wish we could have a proper debate over FTTP and switching to FTTN but until we have Malcom’s policy I don’ think there is must to debate over.
“Cry havoc!”
Actually, it is probably possible to answer all Delimiter posts sensibly with a (suitably mangled) quote from Shakespeare.
‘Ah, poor Quigley. Alas, I knew him Renai”.
Let me remind people who believe FttN is quicker, that the current owner of the copper is not interested in renegotiating terms for the NBN agreement.
The assumption that it is faster, is the assumption that Telstra will a) sell the copper, or b) be funded to build it. Building the damn thing is the least of the problems.
The current hurdles are (and not limited to):
– telstra owns the copper network
– current NBNco agreement does not cover use of copper
– NBNco cannot co-opt copper to commence build
– there is no Liberal Policy to define an NBNco, or Telstra build
– there is no agreement for NBNco to buy Telstra assets (it’s lease only)
– there is no agreement for Telstra to buy NBNco assets
– any sale of either would be a regulatory concern
– legislation doesn’t exist for any of the above to occur
– ACCC has only set pricing terms for the NBN
.. and the list goes on.
There are likely going to be delays in the NBN deployment. That does not mean it is a failure outright.
It’s important that NBNco deliver on target to keep costs in line with expectation, however delays at times are inevitable. This isn’t just installing “the wireless internets” for Aunt Maude.
It’s a multi billion dollar Australia-wide deployment. It’s not going to take five minutes.
The Liberal alternative — assuming they ever produce a policy — is going to face even greater hurdles, it has to wind back the NBN, redesign it, renegotiate with Telstra, renegotiate terms of operation for NBNco, run the ACCC gauntlet and all of the above mentioned.
If Turnbull is mad on how fast the NBN is deployed now, boy will he rage over the delays in a FttN deployment.
It is quite naive to assume that Telstra will not be interested in a deal with the government that will allow them retain their copper monopoly
I would sell it to them for $20 billion if I was Telstra.
Then use that money to build FttH in profitable areas!
As they were planning (in many people’s eyes) to do previously, had FttN gone ahead.
Phil Burgess even indicated so…
Actually there is a much simpler approach. Refer to Chorus in New Zealand. It is the approach that should have been taken here.
Why does everyone immediately assume that because I worked in New Zealand it’d have worked in Australia? And then further assume that it might work here now?
The former might have been possible, but now it isn’t. We’ve already reached the point of no return by signing that $11b deal. You know the one Telstra isn’t interested in revising?
> Why does everyone immediately assume that because I worked in New Zealand it’d have worked in Australia? And then further assume that it might work here now?
Why wouldn’t it work? You take the company with institutional knowledge and skills and have them build the network.
> The former might have been possible, but now it isn’t. We’ve already reached the point of no return by signing that $11b deal. You know the one Telstra isn’t interested in revising?
The reason Telstra aren’t interested in negotiating might just be that the government paid way over the top to get the deal signed. Telstra wasn’t in a hurry to sign, but the government was. Guess who had the bargaining power? Does it remind you of the mining super tax where Julia was keen to sign an agreement to put the issue behind her?
Why wouldn’t it work? You take the company with institutional knowledge and skills and have them build the network.
Australia is not New Zealand. Australia is not the United Kingdom. We have a very different physical topology, particularly in regional areas, where the NBN is supposed be targeting. You think rolling out to 80%, picking the low hanging fruit if it were, would fly in our political climate? You think installing FTTN in whoop whoop would work?
FTTN works if you pick the low hanging fruit, because the low hanging fruit happens to be in relatively densely populated areas, ironically the same justification for commercial FTTH roll-outs like FiOS.
There are other reasons behind making a decision on what to deploy that technical expertise.
The reason Telstra aren’t interested in negotiating might just be that the government paid way over the top to get the deal signed. Telstra wasn’t in a hurry to sign, but the government was. Guess who had the bargaining power? Does it remind you of the mining super tax where Julia was keen to sign an agreement to put the issue behind her?
That doesn’t change the fact that Thodey is on record saying he dosen’t want to renegotiate the deal, and the fact the Turnbull needing to adjust the terms of the current deal without changing the payout, or secure a new deal to allow use of further assets, in order change technologies may cost money, and most definitely will cost time.
> Why wouldn’t it work? You take the company with institutional knowledge and skills and have them build the network.
Australia is not New Zealand. Australia is not the United Kingdom. We have a very different physical topology, particularly in regional areas, where the NBN is supposed be targeting. You think rolling out to 80%, picking the low hanging fruit if it were, would fly in our political climate? You think installing FTTN in whoop whoop would work?
I didn’t suggest that you need to change from FTTP to FTTN, although I do know of several towns that would be happy just to keep their ADSL let alone have FTTN because all that NBNCo are offering is wireless.
> That doesn’t change the fact that Thodey is on record saying he dosen’t want to renegotiate the deal, and the fact the Turnbull needing to adjust the terms of the current deal without changing the payout, or secure a new deal to allow use of further assets, in order change technologies may cost money, and most definitely will cost time.
WRONG. Governments have a lot of power in setting policy? Remember Conroy’s stand over tactics with spectrum access in order to bring Telstra to the negotiating table? Turnbull simply has to make it more attractive for Telstra to split.
I didn’t suggest that you need to change from FTTP to FTTN, although I do know of several towns that would be happy just to keep their ADSL let alone have FTTN because all that NBNCo are offering is wireless.
And I was talking about from naught, not switching, in that description. The fact we’re not starting from naught adds further incentive not to switch afterall.
And those people will keep their ADSL, least for the next decade, Telstra is operating the CAN for the time being until I think it’s like 2020, that’s part of the deal they signed with NBNCo.
By which time one would hope the performance of LTE would exceed ADSL. I mean the fact NBNCo are already planing to offer 25/5 services (per user, not per cell, note that, important when comparing it to other LTE deployments like Telstra’s) already mean that performance it’s pretty darn close to ADSL.
WRONG. Governments have a lot of power in setting policy? Remember Conroy’s stand over tactics with spectrum access in order to bring Telstra to the negotiating table? Turnbull simply has to make it more attractive for Telstra to split.
Again, how is that not going to cost time or money too do?
The big shame is all the delays that led to the late start. It allowed Turnbull to be lose with statistics, but it also meant there was no margin for error in the very early stages of a huge project. A project of this size is bound to have issues that need to be address and initial hickups. Unfortunately the entire rollout is being judge politically by the initial period without the chance to really getting up to full speed.
+1.
The question I would ask is how come a small RSP has access to these numbers, but it is too hard for NBNCo to make them available to parliament and the Australian public?
Personally, I would like to see how the provided figures stack up against a projection of the anticipated ramp up necessary to achieve the June target. I would also like to understand the timeliness of the figures provided by DeVoteD. Renai mentions that they are as at 12 March. But I’ve also seen that the NBN Progress thread on Whirlpool is keenly anticipating the arrival of new figures and I’m not sure how these align (perhaps the new figures are available today, but they weren’t yesterday).
It does seem that NBNCo is starting to fall behind. Potentially it is simply the bottom of a trough and there is soon to be a glut of new premises; the graph is likely to be ragged rather than smooth on this type of deployment. But that seems to be one of the more optimistic scenarios.
Thinking back to the high profile departures from NBNCo I’m starting to wonder if we’re seeing evidence that answers the question of whether it was the dead wood or the talent that has moved on.
Just on a side note, is Lynch in touch with the real world?
“Syntheo is no doubt facing problems attracting labour given the sub-contracting rates common in other states for NBN work. Offering $38 an hour for a labourer”
WTF? When has $38 an hour been a bad rate for a labourer? I’ll take $75K a year to dig some holes and pull some fibre through ducts. That’s about on par with a Teacher or Highly qualified nurse.
Top end of teacher pay rates. Really top end as I understand it.
Yes, so how does Lynch think $38 an hour for a labourer isn’t good?
“Just on a side note, is Lynch in touch with the real world?”
Haha, silly question. You only have to read some past NBN articles from CommsDay to see that something very fishy is going on over there.
It would be interesting to see if Mr Lynch has a change in fortunes after September.
Thank you for this article Renai. Assuming that NBN Co does not make an announcement about changing the 286k target this or next week, will you still be making a FOI request on the 1 April?
Renai previously wrote “When I requested updated rollout statistics on the company’s network in early December, I was told the company only releases that information quarterly, and that I would have to wait until it was ready to give the information out. When I filed a Freedom of Information request for that same information, I was told I would have to wait until 11 February 2013 – two months after I made my initial Freedom of Information request.”
Yet it appears that small RSPs have these numbers readily available. Something doesn’t add up.
Mmmm, I’d already publicly acknowledged they’d likely not pass much above 250 000 by June. I was hoping these skills shortages wouldn’t bite so deeply so quickly. But that coupled with the contractors appearing to have SEVERELY overestimated their premises passed possibilities, it wouldn’t surprise me if we went down to 140 or 150K.
There needs to be some heads rolling. Of course, in any normal project, this would be followed by some analysis and then they get back to it with a slap on the wrist. With a project such as this, this is likely to be the political nail in NBNCo’s coffin. I don’t AGREE with it, but that’s what it’s likely to be.
I don’t believe the 140k number. I won’t beleive it until I hear NBN Co say it themselves.
Less interested in the numbers and the poor performance, as to why it happened.
As a point of interest, does anyone know how the rather inclement weather of the last few months has affected the roll out?
I ask because at least here in Queensland we have had several weeks of rain a couple of storms, and well you know Floods.
I am sure it wouldn’t be huge, but surely it would have an effect. The weather has been unusual, so I can’t imagine that they would have accounted for it completely.
Hi Seven Tech…. Bigpong here from Whirlpool.
Glad to see you have finally came around to reality, it’s taken you a while. It doesn’t need to be the nail in the coffin, but the NBN management needs sacking. Labor won’t do it because they are gutless and are arse-covering Quigley’s cushy job for political reasons.
If Quigley was head of a publically listed company and accountable to public shareholders he’d be out of the job by now. Say what you will about the corporate world, but they have short patience for losers.
If NBN was publically listed, it would not have any shareholders.
Taxpayer guarantee is the only thing financially keeping it afloat.
If you consider the shareholders of the NBN Co are the Australian voters we may well have our say, unfortunately in some circumstances the three year cycle to be able to do this is three years too long.
Exactly…
Which is why private enterprise hasn’t and will never, build such nationally needed infrastructure.
They are not willing to accept accept such a menial ROI on such an outlay.
So… here we are now with the government having to do it, as governments do.
Gee that wasn’t that hard to comprehand after all was it ;)
Worth noting some other factors, depends on timings
“just my two cents
I live in Aspley where the NBN is already connected in a lot of streets…..and believe me, there are tons of streets like mine that have been cabled but not quite switched on yet, so I am betting like Karl above states, that it isn’t as easy as just rolling a bit of fibre down the street. I think people will be impressed with the numbers by June. And Turnbull, you’re a smart man, and have been involved in some impressive tech startups, and you know FTTN is not going to work and will be a waste of money.
radforms
18 March, 2013 04:11 ”
“In my town
it took a couple of months from when the cable was laid in the street until it was available for homeowners to contact an ISP and connect to the NBN. I don’t know that reasons but it probably won’t be much longer for you to wait :-)
Restricted_access
18 March, 2013 04:51 ”
http://www.zdnet.com/au/nbn-rollout-continues-to-lag-7000012713/
The key factor, any issues are the private sector contractors issues or some possibly weather related issues on top.
Wait and see what the figures are June 30 and end Aug
btw: http://i.qkme.me/3tfczs.jpg
So how many NBN contracts were not signed because MT said not to?
You don’t understand memes at all do you?
http://delimiter.com.au/2013/03/13/turnbull-faces-questions-on-nbn-journalist-bullying/#comment-588757
“madcapmagician from Mount Lofty 6 hours ago
As I type this, there are men and machines outside making a huge mess of our footpath while they install the pits, pipes and ultimately the fibre cable for the NBN. Fortunately that won’t have to be the case everywhere – just in older areas where existing conduits aren’t good enough to hold the new cables. Let’s see how much they get done before the project runs out of money. Anyone got a functioning crystal ball?”
http://www.thechronicle.com.au/news/pop-up-centre-gives-the-nbn-experience/1797951/
HMMM
Now who are the experts telling us Telstra’s inground infrastructure is in excellent condition, I do wonder how prevalent this issue is , is it a factor for Syntheo for example.
Of course in the midst of this we shouldn’t forget that the NBNCo Corporate Plan is conservative ;-).
In regards to projected uptake numbers. How does a possible delay on the NBN affect possible uptake numbers?
Talk about strawman arguments. It was obvious in context what we were talking about.
Because you cannot have a NBN BB Plan until the NBN has passed your premises and is activated perhaps?
You know how everyone, including the corporate plan, refers to uptake in terms of percentages right? Percentage of active connections compared to premises passed.
> Talk about strawman arguments. It was obvious in context what we were talking about.
So parts of the NBNCo Corporate Plan (e.g. take-up) are conservative, while other parts (e.g. roll-out and ARPU) are optimistic? Where does that leave the ROI – conservative or optimistic?
https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/slippery-slope
Just because one aspect of the corporate plan may have been inaccurate does not immediately throw into question all the assumptions of the corporate plan.
It’s not a house of cards that’ll come tumbling down if one minor thing, like a labour shortage, threatens the plan.
Or weather issues, such as extreme heat (OH&S) and heavy rains/floods
> Just because one aspect of the corporate plan may have been inaccurate does not immediately throw into question all the assumptions of the corporate plan.
I didn’t say it did. I was merely asking you to state which sections you consider optimistic and which are conservative. Stop dodging the question or is it too hard to answer?
What precisely does this achieve? We were specifically talking about uptake numbers when we referred to the corporate plan as conservative. You used a strawman to try and twist that into us meaning the entire report was conservative.
If you MUST know I think 7% is optimistic. I think the government would be better of sinking some capital into the project to raise the odds better in NBNCos favour, with some other benefits like your dreaded speed tiers. I have thought that since day one. But I’m willing to overlook that minor inconsistency because, unless Turnbull decides to stuff the project up, they will have reached the point of no return before they realise if my prediction is proved true.
But what does that have to do with this article, or your original comment? Nothing. It’s a matter of public record for anyone who’s been following my take on the NBN for a while.
I think that another good figure to know would be the premises passed per day. That is a crucial aspect of the ramp up.
I read today that certain commentators are expecting the NBN to soon reduce their forecast for the end of June to around half (i.e. 140K – 150K premises). That’s a pretty poor result if it is true.
However it is also important to know how quickly that can be recovered. For example, if they are passing 4000 premises per day by the end of June, then that means they are just a little over a month behind where they should be. I think 4000 is an unrealistic number, probably half of that is more likely – but this is why I think that the premises passed per day rate is important to know, as it puts the delay into more context.
I also wonder if there is any potential for NBNco to give up on Syntheo in South Australia and go crawling back to ETSA…
Telstra has already indicated that they are prepared to facilitate a network redesign from FTTP to FTTN as long as the value of the deal is preserved.
If I was Tony Abbott, what I’d do is:
i) immediately renegotiate the deal to access Telstra copper;
ii) writedown NBNco’s fibre network to market value; and
iii) offer the Competitive Carriers Coalition the opportunity to acquire the Federal Government’s entire stake in NBNco at an attractive price with the aim of setting it up as an open access, bitstream wholesale FTTN network.
If the CCC turns down the offer, The Liberal Government should settle all the contracts, liquidate NBNco and sell off the assets to the highest bidder.
The lesson from Labor’s NBN misadventure is that building this kind of infrastructure is a highly risky affair in terms of managing both costs and revenue expectations. Tony Abbott should offer the CCC a final chance to put up (the capital) or shut up. If they reject the offer, let Telstra shareholders carry all the risk of building and managing the national FTTN network. The Liberal Government would be stupid to replicate Labor’s recklessness and exposing taxpayers to such massive risk entailed in such a huge project.
Yeah silly Aussies, we should leave all that fancy building of stuff to the real nations… *sigh*
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