So hands into the taxpayer wallet with no return to the taxpayer, situation normal for the private sector comms companies

Considering if you look at the Corporate Plan (current, not the yet to be released) we are almost EXACTLY one year behind in their predictions, I would assume that their predictions would be correct in that we’ll see some 130 000 odd people on the NBN by June/July next year. However for my own predictions on numbers, I will wait for the new Corporate Plan before making any, seeing as the old Plan did not yet FULLY incorporate:

- The Telstra Deal
- The Optus Deal
- The USO requirements
- Incorrect Address data (was not foreseen at all, seeing as they assumed, like every other company, that is was correct)

My own predictions DO however extend to saying, those of you who continue to insist that NBNCo. is a waste of money will:

1- Say it right up until the day you’re connected to the NBN….and then go silent
2- Will see JUST how much of a “waste of money” it is if the Coalition form a government and go to town on the whole thing. THAT will be a waste of money.

My PREDICTION is that in 10 years time, if the NBN is allowed to continue unabated, the vast, VAST majority of premises will be connected to it and we will all be wondering why so much time was spent arguing over whether it would work or not.

No problem, how about I draw a line in the sand for you? I think they never even hit 100,000 fiber customers in the next 12 months before the election. I mean actual paying customers, not passed by his house, or gave away some free trials. What’s your prediction?

Greenfields operators affected by NBN Co’s entrance into the market have been forced to lower their pricing for fibre reticulation in new developments in order to compete.

“I think the Productivity [Commission] has got it wrong and I think the NBN greenfields model still needs a lot of work.”

http://www.itnews.com.au/News/288123,greenfields-lobby-group-escalates-nbn-complaint.aspx

That doesn’t sound pretty happy about the NBN to me, I would say, got it wrong puts forward the position quite clearly.

Brilliant. I’ve never seen this argument before…..

How about we wait 1 year, then see if this argument still holds?…..

As I said, private fibre operators in Greenfields make up around 1% of the market a year…..

Fine, you’ve quite happily convinced me fibre operators aren’t particularly happy with the NBN…..now, can we get back to the OTHER 99% of Australia?

“Also, Greenfields only make up some 140 000 premises a year.”

That would be about 20 times bigger than the total active NBN customer base on fiber to date.

http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/House_of_Representatives_Committees?url=/jcnbn/bill/subs/sub1.pdf

Australian Government Competitive Neutrality Policy for Government Owned Businesses, like NBN
Co, dictates that no competitive advantages should be given to NBN Co over private sector
competitors by virtue of their public sector ownership. Yet the Government has established NBN Co
as the only FTTP provider with $Billions able to capitalise the cost of building FTTP networks based
on some expectation of a small return on investment if and when NBN Co is ever sold.

It is the perception of GFOA and generally by commercial carriers and operators that the
Government does not intend for NBN Co to have any competitors in new developments, especially
in Greenfields.

There’s nothing in that document to suggest they are happy about what is being done to them, quite the contrary. By the way, if people want to accuse Hockey of dishonesty w.r.t. the $1000 per install figure, then maybe explain why the USO contribution is very much the same figure. I would expect that people happy to accuse other of being sloppy would take a bit of time to read the background material.

The thing is, government right now is still giving both Telstra and NBN massive subsidies to beat out smaller operators. The fact that even in the face of this, the smaller greenfield operators are surviving at all should immediately demolish the rubbish arguments about “natural monopoly” blah blah.

Opticomm’s submission claimed:

Consideration of allocating funds, be it from the USO fund or via soft loans, to the private sector (provided they ensure they meet wholesale only, open access requirements and also deliver the same outcome as the NBN) so to level the “playing field” and provide Developers with a wider, richer choice of options. The funding should be in the order of $1,500 per dwelling unit.

… and also …

We therefore hope it is not the intent, nor the outcome of this legislation, that we seethe Ministers
much heralded structural reform of the telecommunications industry, result in even less competition
within Greenfields.

This we fear would be the Greenfields outcome should we see Government policy resulting in NBN
Co, simply replacing Telstra as the incumbent monopoly and perhaps being even further out of reach
of competition due to new legislation protection.

Stephen Davies from Opticomm posted to WP in 2011 saying, “Opticomm is going from strength to strength.” and I have no better knowledge than he does. Opticomm offer RF sub-carriers for cable TV, as well as regular data networks so maybe that gives them a small technical edge over the NBN technology. Certainly Opticomm have a lot more experience, and they got some work out of NBN’s Tasmania trial so presumably they are a bit happy about that.

Exhibit A/ HP has just spent 119 Million on a new Data Center to provide business both big and small with cloud services: http://db.tt/VWSAYpIi

“The new Datacenter represents a great investment in the information economy infrastructure in Australia, which is currently rolling out a $40bn National Broadband Network as part of its 2020 digital economy plan to enable rapid change and infrastructure development”

Exhibit B/ IBM’s report on the future value of the digital economy to Australia http://www.zdnet.com.au/aussie-broadband-to-make-a-trillion-in-2050-339339712.htm

“We were, quite frankly, a little frustrated by [the NBN debate] and by the lack of vision,” said Andrew Stevens, IBM’s managing director in Australia and New Zealand. “Being amongst those people who were over the horizon, in terms of confidence in the economic impact of this, we thought we should actually do some quantitative and qualitative research to prove our confidence — or, to disprove it.”

The report, produced for IBM by international strategic forecasting firm IBISWorld, positions high-speed broadband as “the new utility”, comparing it to the utilities that underpinned previous transformations in society — such as the water- and steam-driven mechanical power utilities of early industrialisation, and the electricity grids and telephony systems of later industrialisation.

Exhibit B/ Cisco’s Data usage Study http://www.bicsi.com.au/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=227:cisco-report-forecasts-explosion-in-australian-internet-traffic&catid=1:enews&Itemid=18

“The fifth annual Cisco Visual Networking Index Forecast (2010-2015), released recently, predicts that IP traffic will reach 22 gigabytes per capita in Australia in 2015, up from 4 gigabytes in 2010.

The report also forecasts that over the same period, the number of internet users nationally will increase by 43% (from 14 million in 2010 to 20 million by 2015), and that video downloads and streaming will account for 81% of all consumer internet traffic.”

So to all you “we dont need no FTTH NBN” FUD’sters, I say the evidence from the worlds leading IT companies dramatically and unequivocally proves you wrong!!! Not only do their studies point out the need for the NBN but they (eg HP) are putting their money where their mouth is and investing Australia’s digital future. The LNP by not getting behing the NBN in its current form put all of that investment in australia’s future at risk!

The LNP and the NBN naysayers should be ashamed at the total lack of vision and foresight currently being displayed!!!!

Shame, Shame Shame!!!

The first and largest flaw in your analogy is that fixed line telecoms, like electricity, gas and water, is a natural monopoly. Car manufacturing and petrol supply…is not. If a few people want a new car, they can just go out and buy one. There is no logical reason to force everyone to get a new car (which seems to be where you get confused with the NBN).

I want FTTH *now*. I cannot get it. It would cost considerably more than a new car to get it installed. However, if everyone in my suburb wanted it, the labour costs would be split a hundred ways and the cost would be much more reasonable. The NBN applies this principle on a national scale.

Don’t look at cars and petrol. Look at the roads.

You can’t build a road (plus all connecting roads!) for each individual that requests it. You build a road past every house, even if some people are happy to just ride their bike through dirt or walk.

Also more people able to work from home, which means less competition for things like child care spots, less demand means better competition and lower prices, plus the government would be paying less in subsidy.
I’m not suggesting you do both at once (parenting/working), but the flexibilty of dropping kids at school, working , picking kids up, and maybe some more work later that night wopuld suit a lot of people, especially as the second income in a family..

PS. I’m also an online gamer and I want to stop these other countries kicking my ass because they have a better connection. Peace out!

Sorry if I don’t give Mr Hockey any credit at all for being sort of right like you have. He was clearly stating that the house would need to be rewired above what the NBN was providing. I cannot believe they are still trying to scare people with the line, and he was very foolish to attempt it on a tech news site. All he did was reduse his credibility even further.

There is nothing like good ol’ hard sell to push the sale. That is why all Australian’s are having this hard sell shoved down their throats. Enter the headlines, Coalition to win by a landslide! [insert anything here but the Coalition] will destroy the Family Farm! The NBN will promote tooth decay! Grow a backbone everyone. Stop being herded like a mob of Sheeple that is really funny and also scary to behold! You don’t have to be told how to vote. Be brave and vote for you and not someone else who is telling you that this is the vote you will cast. Are we so programmed that we will do whatever those with money tell us to do? May as well open your wallets and Bank Accounts and let them take what they desire. Trust me; you won’t have much for yourself afterward.

No, it is not certain unless your desire is to be all good Sheeple. If Australia wants now, what we fought against in World War II, then go for it and you have my pity. But honestly, no one would want it, I don’t want to give it, and Australia will hopefully ignore the hard sell and vote for their interests. The outcome for the next election is anything but the certainty that a lot of money will be spent by rich people to get their desired Party in. Watch the money and exposure look at the gloss, smoke and mirror show and do tear into the veil and what is pushing that message and then understand your choice. We will get the Parliament of our choice. It will be our choice. We know the system. Use it.

The cost is the cost involved of changing the delivery to the premises from ULL to fiber, and installing the relevent NBN equipment to connect the customer. That cost is included in the cost of the NBN, ie. it’s part of the NBN rollout costs.

The assumption that each and every premises connecting to the NBN will be required to spend $1000+ rewiring is false, they don’t have to spend anything directly.

That said, if you do decide to go onto the 100/40 plan, then it’s probably a good idea to make sure your premises can handle at the very least 100Mb so you can fully utilise the service, but doing that is not a requirement of connecting to the NBN.